Google Analytics

Saturday, April 2

2nd Apr - Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s post is here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

Weekly Market Review - ZH

Stocks Spike On "Good Jobs" As Crude Crashes

US Schedule for WeekBill McBride

Economic CalendarBerenberg

5 Things to Watch on the US Economic Calendar WSJ

Week AheadBB
Fed Minutes, U.S. Services, Yellen and Draghi to speak, Wisconsin holds presidential primary

Wall St Week AheadReuters
Investors to sift for clues in Fed tug-of-war

Weighing the Week AheadJeff Miller

The calendar continues in something of an alternating mode. Last week had plenty of important data; this week has little. Instead we get multiple speeches from Fed Presidents and Governors and the release of the last FOMC minutes. Little data plus lots of Fed news is a natural draw for the punditry. This week they will be asking: Is the Fed too optimistic?
EcoWeekBNP Paribas
Global: Monetary gradualism in an effort to support confidence - Faced with uncertainty about the global economy, Janet Yellen sends a dovish message. Eurozone data send conflicting signals in the first quarter: good in terms of activity and sales, mixed in terms of sentiment. Rebound in Chinese PMI brings some relief. US: You don’t change a winning team - The first quarter is on track to once more be a disappointment. Whether it will or will not be followed by the usual rebound is anyone’s guess. The Fed, not being in the guessing business, is easing its policy. Japan: The year starts off slowly - 2015 ended on a negative note and the first data released for Q1 do not indicate a short term rebound in growth either. Conversely a fall in Q1 GDP seems very likely. France: Significant reduction in the 2015 fiscal deficit - In 2015, France’s fiscal deficit reached 3.5% of GDP (preliminary estimate), marking a significant improvement from 2014 (-0.5 points). Higher GDP growth and slower growth in public spending account for this better than expected result.

Week Ahead: How dovish is the Fed?Nordea
Fedspeak will set the tone in the week ahead. Recent speeches have sent signals in all directions, so we will be looking to Yellen (Thu) and the FOMC minutes (Wed) to straighten out the Fed's intentions, which are most likely dovish. In the Euro Area, the ECB publishes data on loan and deposit interest rates (Mon), which will give important indications of whether new rate cuts are in the pipeline. Finally, China releases data on its FX reserves, which we expect to show stabilisation (Thu).

Week AheadDanske Bank
Tue: US ISM Services Wed: Fed minutes Thu: ECB minutes. Fed speeches all week.

StrategyDanske Bank
Dovish major central banks and a weaker dollar continue to support global risk sentiment * Furthermore, we see an emerging recovery in the highly important Chinese construction sector * This should support commodity (notably metals) dependent currencies and equity markets * We remain positive on the euro area govies in light of weak inflation expectations and scaling up of the ECB QE programme.

Week AheadHandelsbanken

UK Week AheadHandelsbanken

Global Week Ahead Scotiabank

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s
[free registration required]

Macro Weekly: Is global inflation turning? ABN AMRO
Recent inflation reports in the US and eurozone have been firmer, commodity prices are up and global goods deflation has eased. Although headline inflation will turn up later in the year, underlying inflationary pressures will likely remain subdued. Global economic growth remains lacklustre, while overcapacity in China’s industrial sector will remain a disinflationary force. Wage growth is moderate in the US and weak in the eurozone and some of the recent rise in consumer prices is driven by special factors.

FX Weekly: USD out of favourABN AMRO
Dovish comments from Fed Chair Yellen weigh on the US dollar. Dollar has been weak across the board with commodity FX in favour. Weaker US data will likely weigh on the dollar going forward. RBA to keep OCR unchanged, carry trades trend to persist.

Speculative Positioning – Marc Chandler

FX Outlook – Marc Chandler

Weekly Market Summary – The Fat Pitch