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Friday, April 1

1st Apr - Strong US jobs- and manufacturing reports

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Brexit FAQNordea
We have prepared answers to 11 questions we frequently get on Brexit. We continue to think that the UK will remain in the EU. In our view, Brexit would mean a lasting drag on UK economic growth in both the short and long term. We would expect increased volatility but not a financial crisis. Brexit would be GBP-negative in the short term, but we doubt that the effect will last longer than a week or so, and in the longer run, the EUR might be the loser.

Brexit Eclipsing Fed-ECB Split as Top Risk for Euro: AnalysisBB

Europe's Banks Can't Do Draghi's Bidding – View / BB
ECB Risks Trashing Corporate Bond Liquidity – View / BB

Martin Enlund’s FX: KFC?Nordea
The Fed decided to worry about everything in March. Will the FX policy divergence theme remain alive (but clearly less kicking) or will it be killed off as has been the case with the GBP? We provide some thoughts in this FX nugget. KFC: Kould Fed (actually) Cut?

Yellen Pivots Toward Saving Her Legacy Tim Duy
 Rising risks to the outlook placed Yellen’s legacy in danger. If the first rate hike wasn’t a mistake, certainly follow up hikes would be.

Economic surprises drive the Fed's reaction functionBB

Solid jobs growth continues and manufacturing cycle has turned – Danske Bank
ISM Manufacturing index increased to 51.8 in March – Bill McBride
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Edges Down Amid Economic Concerns – BB
Manufacturing in U.S. Expands for First Time in Seven Months – BB

3 Numbers: Another solid US jobs report expected – TF
NFP Preview: More ammo for FOMC hawks? – TF
US labour market preview – ABN AMRO
Solid employment growth but not enough for the Fed – Nordea
Last Minute Payrolls Preview – ZH

March Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
Payrolls +215K Beat Expectations, Earnings & Unemployment Rise – ZH
215,000 Jobs, 5.0% Unemployment Rate – Bill McBride
The March Jobs Report in 14 Charts – WSJ
Economists React: Jobless Rate ‘Increased For All The Right Reasons’ – WSJ
Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
US labour market no longer tightening – ABN AMRO
Strong U.S. jobs report unlikely to sway cautious Fed – Reuters
Goldman After Jobs Report Sees Three Rate Hikes In 2016 – ZH
Payrolls Increased 215,000 in March as Wages Picked Up – BB

Helicopters are easy to flySimon Wren-Lewis

South Korea – Markit
China – Markit
Japan – Markit
Taiwan – Markit
Indonesia – Markit
Malaysia – Markit
Russia – Markit
Turkey – Markit
Poland – Markit
Netherlands – Markit
Spain – Markit
Italy – Markit
France – Markit
Germany – Markit
Eurozone – Markit
Greece – Markit
United Kingdom – Markit
China: PMI upside surprise not that surprising – Nordea

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

PMI, UR, NFP, ISM - today is all about the abbreviations * Solid jobs report – but not enough for the Fed * Continued negative Euro area inflation, ECB's new purchase rate * EUR/USD above 1.14

Morning MarketsTF
A horrible reading from the Tankan Survey overnight sent the Nikkei into a calamitious plunge that casts serious doubt on the Bank of Japan's negative-rates strategy and helped drag the rest of Asia down despite a surprise boost in Chinese PMIs.

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
With the Fed's mandate outsourced to China, it's hard to care about payrolls

Daily ShotTF
The European Central Bank is challenged by disinflationary pressures with Spain Italy Germany and the Eurozone as a whole in deflation.

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
New TNS poll finds UK split right down the middle on EU membership * Spain posts big miss on 2015 budget deficit targets and blames regional governments * Greece unable to meet deadline to send back first migrants to Turkey * Greek bailout talks may yet drag on and could be delayed by UK’s EU referendum * Italian Industry Minister quits over conflict of interest allegations

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Juncker pokes Poland — Germany on alert — May one force be with you

Japan Stocks Plunge; Europe, U.S. Futures, Oil Lower Ahead Of Payrolls


FX UpdateTF
The Fed has established a clearly dovish stance on the pace of future rate hikes. But the market has taken this to an extreme as less than 1 rate hike is priced in for the next 12 months. This makes strong upside surprises in today’s key US data releases the most interesting scenario to test the mettle of the USD bears.

From the FloorTF
Today marks the release of the latest US nonfarm payrolls print but Saxo forex head John Hardy wonders what the impact of even a very strong report will be given the Federal Reserve's reluctance to further normalise policy.

Mannaa taivaalta * Tänään katseet kohdistuvat USA:n työllisyysraporttiin * Euroalueen inflaatio jäi negatiiviseksi * Kiinan teollisuuden ostopäällikköluvut yllättivät positiivisesti

Matti Viren: Perustulo ei ole järkevä hankeUS