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Wednesday, October 11

11th Oct - Quiet despite FOMC minutes

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Paris and Berlin at odds over key plank of eurozone reform plans FT
German ideas expose differences over proposals for sovereign debt restructuring

Daniel Gros: Europe’s Return to Crisis? Project Syndicate
The European Union – which relies on the nation-state not just for the implementation of its policies, but also for its own legitimacy – can function only as well as its member states. And, today, those member states, including but not limited to Spain, are severely weakened by internal strife.

Wolfgang Münchau: A Catalan breakaway would make Brexit look like a cake walkFT
Extricating yourself from the EU is difficult enough, but to extricate yourself from a currency union at the same time is an economic suicide mission

Jussi Halla-aho: Most independent states today were born ‘illegally’ – FT
Spanish Government Begins Process To Suspend Catalan Autonomy – ZH
Spain Turns Screws on Catalans With Threat of Direct Control – BB
Madrid Gives Catalonia 5 Day Ultimatum To Clarify If It Declared Independence – ZH

Five Things to Watch for in Bank Earnings – WSJ 

Fed Is Ignoring Actual Inflation Data – BB
The Key Things To Look For In Today's FOMC Minutes – ZH
FOMC Minutes – FED
Fed split on inflation intensified at September policy meeting: minutes – Reuters
Fed Minutes Show Support for Next Hike Was a Close Call for Some – BB
Fed Fears Low Inflation Here To Stay But Push For Hike In 2017 – ZH

When Mean Reversion FailsPension Partners
Market can remain overvalued or undervalued for decades, but the baseline definition of over/under valuation can change as well.

Aaron Brown: Humans Have an Essential -- Though Small -- Role in MarketsBB
Until computers learn fairness, or the human race abandons the ideal, humans are essential in the investment process.

Focus Distinguishes Trading Professionals From AmateursBrett Steenbarger
All traders exhibit emotional processing.  The least experienced traders exhibited the most extreme emotional reactivity.

The quiet bull market everyone is skeptical ofKevin Muir
Japanese stocks are pushing higher despite stronger JPY

Financial forecasts – Some headwinds – October 2017Nordea
Markets have largely shrugged off the ample political risks, and risk appetite has remained positive. While we expect the positive tone to continue for now, we see more risks on the horizon. We update the details of our ECB call.

Deutsche Bank's Alan Ruskin: Vol: freeze or flight?ZH
By the end of next year, the combined expansion of all the major central bank balance sheets will have collapsed from a 12 month growth rate of $2 trillion per annum to zero.

OPEC Monthly Report – OPEC
OPEC Boosts Oil Demand Estimates, Admits Oil Prices Can't Rise Above $55 – ZH
IMF Fiscal Monitor: Tackling Inequality, October 2017 – IMF
Financial Stability Improves, But Rising Vulnerabilities Could Put Growth at Risk – IMF
OPEC again raises demand forecast for its oil, points to 2018 deficit – Reuters

The Prophet of Germany’s New RightNYT
From a tiny village in the country’s rural east, a leading nationalist intellectual builds a vision for the future of his movement across Europe.

The Man Who Forgot He Was a Rap LegendGQ
T La Rock was one of the pioneers of hip-hop. But after an attack put him in a nursing home, he had to fight to recover his identity, starting with the fact that he’d ever been a rapper at all.

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Catalan independence stand-off, decoding cancer, Uber appeal deadline

Spanish Stocks Up as Catalonia Backs Down, Equifax Hack Hits 15 Million UK Customers

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder
Danske DailyDanske Bank

New financial forecasts * Fed minutes today * No Catalonian escalation buttressing yields

Morning MarketsTF
The greenback is back on a weak footing at the European open and sterling is also smarting from another blast of Brexit woe. The Catalan constitutional crisis has descended into farce but crude oil has been cheered by the outlook to Saudi production cuts.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
China Ends Swap Lines with South Korea: A Dog That Doesn't Bark

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Catalan non-independence — Council conclusions — Electoral law vote in Italy

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

S&P Futures Flat, Spain Rebounds, Nikkei Closes At 21 Year High


Katalonian aluejohtajan puhe oli markkinoille pieni helpotus | Fedin pöytäkirja julkaistaan tänään | Norjan inflaatio petti odotukset

Saksan metallimiehet eivät tuo helpotusta EKP:lleNordea
EKP päättää osto-ohjelmansa supistamisesta lokakuussa, mutta korkojen nostoon on matkaa. Inflaatiopaineita heikentää saksalaisen IG Metallin vaatimaton palkankorotustoive, joka on hyvä pitää mielessä myös Suomen palkkaneuvotteluissa.