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Thursday, October 12

12th Oct - Boring, quiet

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Political Focus Shifting in EuropeMarc Chandler
There was a huge sigh of relief among investors when it became clear that the populist-nationalist wave that ostensibly led to Brexit and Trump's election was not going to sweep through Europe. 

No-Deal Brexit Would Cost $15,000 Per Person, Rabobank SaysBB

Italy Knows How to Solve Catalonia's Problem
A South Tyrolean-style arrangement should resolve two of the Catalan separatists' biggest grievances.

ECB's Draghi pledges rock-bottom rates as Germany calls for change – Reuters
Draghi talks up rate guidance – ABN AMRO

Trump Containment Is No Constitutional Crisis – BB
Whiffs of Doubt Appear in Fed's View of Inflation – BB
FOMC minutes: Core members still want to hike in December – Danske Bank

Rejoice, the 'Market of Stocks' Has Returned – BB
Stock correlations at pre-crisis lows * Fed’s tightening bias a mistake? * Has central bank communication added confusion? * Mexican Peso under pressure

Low Bond Yields Have Little to Do With Lax Monetary Policies – BB
Demographic trends are having a very significant impact on savings and risk appetite.

Goldman Has a New Way for You to Bet on the Next Banking Crisis – BB
Derivatives provide hedge or exposure to high-yield AT1 notes * Other market makers to start publishing tradeable prices soon

The New Rules That Could Make ETFs Unstoppable – BB
Passive asset managers have been on a roll. They’re about to get some more help from new regulatory regimes including MiFID II.

Alpha Macro FX Traders Should've Just Been BetaBB
Returns adjusted for risk are negative in 2017: Deutsche Bank * Discretionary managers failing to anticipate economic shifts

Party Congress lays ground for China’s future policies – Nordea
The importance of China’s 19th Party Congress is not rightly reflected in the immediate market impact which we expect to remain limited. The high-level political nominations can set the tone for China for the far future.

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Central banks’ conundrum, tongue-tied in Thailand, Nafta on the brink

U.K. Won’t Deregulate City After Brexit, Warning on Banks’ Profitability

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

FOMC minutes weaken the USD: Fed on track for a December hike, with some doubts remaining * Swedish inflation today * Peripheral yields lower on receding Spanish political risk

Morning MarketsTF
European equities are poised for a positive start Thursday after Asian bourses tracked another record-breaking session on Wall Street largely due to some dovish minutes from the Federal Reserve.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Discipline Argues Against Consensus Narrative

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Germany military beyond Nazism — Serbian PM interview — Shh-engen

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB
Fed – who and when? * Brexit - prepare for the worst * Bank earnings season * Markets higher * Tax changes

US Open ZH
Global Stocks Hit New Record High, Dollar Mixed After Dovish Fed

Pöytäkirjan mukaan Fedin jäsenet erimielisiä heikon inflaation väliaikaisuudesta | Odotamme Ruotsin inflaation nousseen | Euro jatkoi vahvistumistaan dollaria vastaan