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Thursday, October 12

12th Oct - Boring, quiet



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EUROPE
Political Focus Shifting in Europe – Marc Chandler
There was a huge sigh of relief among investors when it became clear that the populist-nationalist wave that ostensibly led to Brexit and Trump's election was not going to sweep through Europe. 

No-Deal Brexit Would Cost $15,000 Per Person, Rabobank Says – BB

Italy Knows How to Solve Catalonia's Problem –
BB
A South Tyrolean-style arrangement should resolve two of the Catalan separatists' biggest grievances.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB's Draghi pledges rock-bottom rates as Germany calls for change – Reuters
Draghi talks up rate guidance – ABN AMRO


UNITED STATES
Trump Containment Is No Constitutional Crisis – BB
Whiffs of Doubt Appear in Fed's View of Inflation – BB
FOMC minutes: Core members still want to hike in December – Danske Bank


OTHER
Rejoice, the 'Market of Stocks' Has Returned – BB
Stock correlations at pre-crisis lows * Fed’s tightening bias a mistake? * Has central bank communication added confusion? * Mexican Peso under pressure

Low Bond Yields Have Little to Do With Lax Monetary Policies – BB
Demographic trends are having a very significant impact on savings and risk appetite.

Goldman Has a New Way for You to Bet on the Next Banking Crisis – BB
Derivatives provide hedge or exposure to high-yield AT1 notes * Other market makers to start publishing tradeable prices soon

The New Rules That Could Make ETFs Unstoppable – BB
Passive asset managers have been on a roll. They’re about to get some more help from new regulatory regimes including MiFID II.

Alpha Macro FX Traders Should've Just Been Beta – BB
Returns adjusted for risk are negative in 2017: Deutsche Bank * Discretionary managers failing to anticipate economic shifts

Party Congress lays ground for China’s future policies – Nordea
The importance of China’s 19th Party Congress is not rightly reflected in the immediate market impact which we expect to remain limited. The high-level political nominations can set the tone for China for the far future.


REGULARS
FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT
Central banks’ conundrum, tongue-tied in Thailand, Nafta on the brink

WSJ City – WSJ
U.K. Won’t Deregulate City After Brexit, Warning on Banks’ Profitability

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea
FOMC minutes weaken the USD: Fed on track for a December hike, with some doubts remaining * Swedish inflation today * Peripheral yields lower on receding Spanish political risk

Morning Markets – TF
European equities are poised for a positive start Thursday after Asian bourses tracked another record-breaking session on Wall Street largely due to some dovish minutes from the Federal Reserve.

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Discipline Argues Against Consensus Narrative

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Germany military beyond Nazism — Serbian PM interview — Shh-engen

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
Fed – who and when? * Brexit - prepare for the worst * Bank earnings season * Markets higher * Tax changes

US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Hit New Record High, Dollar Mixed After Dovish Fed


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Pöytäkirjan mukaan Fedin jäsenet erimielisiä heikon inflaation väliaikaisuudesta | Odotamme Ruotsin inflaation nousseen | Euro jatkoi vahvistumistaan dollaria vastaan