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Monday, October 23

23rd Oct - Czech election cement CEE's skepticism

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Business cycle stabilisation in the Eurozone: Ways forward – voxeu
Survey of recent literature formulating practical lessons for the Eurozone’s ability to implement an effective monetary–fiscal policy mix.

European Banks Will Have to Share Data With Their Rivals BB
The new rule will force lenders to share their coveted customer data with fintech challengers

Christmas Plans Face Ruin for Finance Industry as MiFID II Looms BB
Buyside and sellside still awaiting details of some rules * U.S. finance firms in particular seem ‘ill-prepared’: UBS note

Poland Is Cutting ‘Last Fuses’ on DemocracyBB
Judicial overhaul is move toward authoritarianism, Bodnar says * Commissioner says Duda plan has ‘faulty constitutional basis’

Jan von Gerich: The ECB should fear the next recession
Considering the limits that govern the ECB’s government bond purchases, the central bank is quickly using most of its easing potential already now. There will be little left for the next recession, or crisis, which is problematic.

ECB preview: slower, longer, stronger
We expect the ECB to announce a 9-month extension of asset purchases, until at least September 2018, at a monthly pace of EUR30bn. The ECB’s emphasis on “patience and persistence” means that an even longer QE extension is possible, e.g. at EUR20-25bn for 12 months.

ECB Preview – Scenarios and market reactionABN AMRO
The ECB has signalled that it will set out the outlook for its QE programme beyond December 2017 (though some details could follow later). What it will decide is uncertain. Officials seem to be considering a trade-off between the future size and duration of the programme.

Report on financial structures, October 2017 – ECB
Report on financial structures shows ongoing consolidation in the banking sector – ECB

Spanish government meets to impose direct rule in rebel Catalonia – Reuters
Catalan Rebels Say Spain Will Live to Regret Hostile Power Grab – BB
How Madrid Plans to Oust Separatists and Run Catalonia – BB
Separatists Pledge to Fight On After Spain Moves to Oust Catalan Leaders – BB
Catalan Leaders Won't Be Arrested, Spain's Foreign Minister Says – BB
Catalan Separatists Plot Response to Spain’s Shock and Awe – BB

Czechs Add to EU’s Headache by Electing Euroskeptic Billionaire – BB
Sorry, Czechs, Your Country Isn't a Business, Either – BB

Our Biggest Economic, Social, and Political Issue The Two Economies: The Top 40% and the Bottom 60% - Ray Dalio

AI offers clues to hawks and doves circling the FedFT
Algorithms work through speeches, papers and interviews by contenders for the top job

Central banks and rates, the definitive guide – ING
Federal Reserve: Dismissing the sceptics * European Central Bank: The 'lower for longer' * Bank of England: Big question marks over 2018 rate hikes * Bank of Japan: Dissent brewing? * Bank of Canada: Caution creeps in * Swedish Riksbank: Tapering complete? * Norges Bank: On hold as economy continues recovery

Here Is The IMF's Global Financial Crash Scenario
Concerns about a continuing buildup in debt loads and overstretched asset valuations could have global economic repercussions

Regulators Can't Keep Up With Wall Street's Robot InvasionBB
Watchdogs face litany of challenges policing automated traders * Budget constraints and industry lobbying are among headwinds

Macro Monday: It's a bull by any other name
Structural risks are to the upside - big reduction in USD shorts * Spanish government looks to be liqudating Catalonia leader * China GDP coming in pretty strong at close to 7% * China’s PPI continues to surprise to the upside

Japan: Astounding victory for Abe – Nordea
Abe Placed to Lead Japan Through 2021 After Big Election Win – BB
Japan's Abe to push pacifist constitution reform after strong election win – Reuters
The Winners and Losers of Japan's Landslide Election – BB

Giving Away Billions as Fast as They Can
In a matter of years, a new crop of ultra-wealthy Americans has eclipsed the old guard of philanthropic titans. With names like Soros, Gates, Bloomberg, Mercer, Koch and Zuckerberg, these new megadonors are upending long-established norms in the staid world of big philanthropy.

How Saudi Arabia Is Building Its $2 Trillion Fund –
How much is Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund worth? – FT

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Abe’s thumping victory, Wolf of Wall Street’s warning, Nike’s robotic future

Abe Wins Japan Election, Boom in Risky Securities, Catalonia Set for Crunch Week

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Central bank week ahead, yields up, stronger GBP * Abe retains his strong position in Japanese parliament * US yields rise on higher hopes of the tax reform * GBP gains on some progress in Brexit talks

Morning MarketsTF
Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe's party has won a commanding parliamentary supermajority driving shares higher and the yen lower but the PM remains vulnerable to shaky voter approval numbers.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
US Dollar Starts New Week on Firm Note

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Harassment at EU — Madrid seizes control — Babiš’ crushing Czech win

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

World Stocks At All Time Highs After Nikkei's Record Winning Streak; Euro Slides With Spain On Edge


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