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Monday, October 23

23rd Oct - ECB Previews

Jan von Gerich: The ECB should fear the next recessionNordea
Considering the limits that govern the ECB’s government bond purchases, the central bank is quickly using most of its easing potential already now. There will be little left for the next recession, or crisis, which is problematic.

ECB preview: slower, longer, stronger
We expect the ECB to announce a 9-month extension of asset purchases, until at least September 2018, at a monthly pace of EUR30bn. The ECB’s emphasis on “patience and persistence” means that an even longer QE extension is possible, e.g. at EUR20-25bn for 12 months.

ECB Preview – Scenarios and market reactionABN AMRO
The ECB has signalled that it will set out the outlook for its QE programme beyond December 2017 (though some details could follow later). What it will decide is uncertain. Officials seem to be considering a trade-off between the future size and duration of the programme.

Central banks and rates, the definitive guide – ING
Federal Reserve: Dismissing the sceptics * European Central Bank: The 'lower for longer' * Bank of England: Big question marks over 2018 rate hikes * Bank of Japan: Dissent brewing? * Bank of Canada: Caution creeps in * Swedish Riksbank: Tapering complete? * Norges Bank: On hold as economy continues recovery

High noon for the ECB, Draghi at the QE CorralReuters
With the euro zone economic recovery well into its fifth year, the time has come to cut stimulus. Yet, overly ambitious tightening could choke off the very growth Draghi has fostered, threatening to undo years of work.

ECB preview: Dovish tapering Nordea
The low inflation numbers will keep the ECB’s tapering decision dovish, and emphasis will be on the forward guidance. After all the leaks, the decision should not lead to major market moves, but short-term volatility will be unavoidable.

ECB preview: Lower for longer 2.0ING
Next week's ECB meeting should finally provide first details of the ECB’s dovish tapering

ECB Preview: Ready to scale back QEDanske Bank
We expect ECB to extend QE by nine months, 30bn /month, and then end QE in Q4/18

ECB preview: slower, longer, stronger - Pictet
Recent ECB communication has been remarkably consistent in signalling a ‘slower for longer’ QE extension into 2018.

ECB Tapering Market Impact ScenariosZH

ECB to Consider Cutting QE Purchases in Half Next YearBB
Some officials favor extending QE at EU30b for nine months * ECB to announce future of bond-buying program on Oct.26

ECB policymakers converge on QE extension at lower volumesReuters
ECB in broad agreement to prolong asset purchases at a lower volume at their October meeting with views converging on a nine months extension

ECB QE scenariosABN AMRO