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Tuesday, October 31

31st Oct - Quiet Halloween EOM

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ECB QE composition – some degree of constructive ambiguityPictet
The most important aspect of last week’s QE announcement was that the programme will remain open ended
Eurozone Inflation Unexpectedly Cools – ZH
Euro area: Strong growth but slower inflation – Nordea
Euro area: solid growth, but inflation still under par – Pictet 
Euro area annual inflation down to 1.4% - Eurostat
GDP up by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU28 – Eurostat
Euro area unemployment at 8.9% - Eurostat

American's Consumer Confidence Highest Since The Peak Of DotCom Bubble – ZH
U.S. Consumer Confidence Just Hit Its Highest Level in Almost 17 Years – BB

FOMC preview: Waiting for December – Nordea
This week’s FOMC meeting looks like it will be a non-event. We expect the Fed to remain committed to a December rate hike.

Q3 ECI review: Where’s the wage inflation? – Nordea
Wage growth remains soft, but the Fed will likely continue to fear a sudden acceleration in wages as unemployment drops further. A December rate hike is almost certain.

Goldman Agrees With Dalio’s Tale of Two Economies: Eco Pulse – BB
A divided job market leaves the Fed staring down a difficult choice

Both Campaigns Sought Russian Dirt. Clinton's Way Was Legal – BB
Don't Rush to Judge Trump – BB
Mega-Lobbyist Podesta Quits After U.S. Charges Manafort – BB
Mueller’s Opening Moves Show Focus on Trump-Russia Collusion – BB
Mueller Raises Pressure on Trump With Papadopoulos-Russia Link – BB
Tech Companies Set to Tell Congress About Russian Election Meddling – BB

Martin Enlund: Dollar scarcity to pick up on Treasury's trickeryNordea
The new cash balance forecast from the US Treasury suggest a front-loaded shrinking of US excess liquidity. This usually triggers wider xCcy basis swaps and dollar strength. We remain optimistic the dollar in the near term.

4 reasons why you shouldn’t buy in to the current Bank of England pricingNordea
With an almost pre-announced hike on the horizon in UK later this week, we revisit the market pricing of Bank of England and provide four reasons why you should not buy into more than the (potential) hike on Thursday.

Seeking and Avoiding Risk At Exactly The Wrong TimeThe Fat Pitch
Too often, investors sell their winners early and hold on to their losers in order to avoid taking a loss. Put another way, when faced with a gain, investors avoid risk; when faced with a loss, they seek risk. It's the exact opposite of what a rational, profit-maximizing investor would be expected to do. This is another paradox of human behavior that helps explain why most investors perform badly.

You Wanna See Something Really Scary? Try These Market ChartsBB
Bitcoin bubbles, savings rates, monetary policy among worries * ‘Lack of fear’ in markets at all-time highs also a concern

BOJ keeps policy steady, board newcomer signals desire for easingReuters

Autumn Readings about Factor InvestingQuantpedia

Algorithms to Live By- Part 1, SortingAndrea Sefler
Algorithms to Live By- Part 2, Optimal StoppingAndrea Sefler
Algorithms to Live By- Part 3, SchedulingAndrea Sefler

IMF warns volatility products loom as next big market shockFT
Second Crash Warning From The IMF – This Time It's About VolZH

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Russia probe revelations, the war against Pope Francis, #Beurregate

Trump’s Deregulatory Juggernaut, BP to Restart Buybacks

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

BOJ unchanged, USD weaker equities lower * Eyes on Euro-area inflation * The periphery outperforms as Italian rating lifted * Possible phase-in of tax cuts weakens USD

Morning MarketsTF
European bourses are likely to open softer after weaker Wall St. and Asian sessions. Focus today will be on the identity of the next Fed chair and the Mueller investigation into Trump's Russian links.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Month-End Leaves Market at Cross Roads

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Catalan leaders on the run — Parliament’s secret harassment report

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

US Futures Rebound After Disappointing Chinese, European Data


Pettääkö euroalueen inflaatio? Saksan lokakuun inflaatioluvut olivat odotettua heikommat * Odotamme euroalueen BKT:n jatkavan tasaisessa kasvussa * USA:n korot laskivat edelleen