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Monday, October 16

16th Oct - Quiet

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Catalan Leader Defies Spain, Activating Second Ultimatum Deadline – ZH

Eurogroup head outlines pragmatic view on 'euro zone budget' –
Europe needs market pressure to get economics right: Eurogroup head – Reuters
Euro zone bailout fund may get monitoring powers next year – Reuters

Austria Shifts to Right in Election That Empowers Nationalists – BB
Austrians Lean Toward Nationalist Government Led by a Millennial – BB
Europe's migration crisis casts long shadow as Austria votes – Reuters
31-Year-Old Wins, Worst Result For Establishment Party Since Hitler Rule – ZH
Meet The 31-Year-Old Anti-Immigrant Austrian Leader – ZH
Populism is not dead – next stage is acceptable populism – ING
What Austria's new right-wing leader means for Europe – TF  

Draghi Says ECB Is Confident About Reaching Inflation Goal – BB
ECB still believes in eventual inflation, wage rise: Draghi – Reuters
Draghi doesn't think Europe is in a "bubbly situation" – CNBC
ECB Tapering Market Impact Scenarios – ZH

Is The Fed Setting Itself Up To Fail In The Next Recession?Tim Duy
The Federal Reserve remains committed to a December rate hike, persistent low inflation not withstanding. the US economy enters the next recession with diminished inflation expectations, which could further hobble central bankers already facing the prospect of returning to the effective lower bound in the next cycle.

El-Erian: The Three Scenarios That Should Guide Investors – BB
Take into account endogenous economic and financial healing, long-awaited policy breakthroughs and bigger liquidity waves.

The Cost of Missing the Market Boom Is Skyrocketing
Everywhere you look it’s record equities as economies recover * Corporate earnings set to advance from Europe to U.S.

Yield Outlook: In Q4 central banks will set the direction for 2018
Danske Bank

G10 FX Week Ahead: The dollar’s not hotING
With the White House set to nominate a new Fed Chair anytime within the next month, we take a look at whether any of the leading candidates pose a threat to our strategically bearish USD view.

Some Clarity on Risk ParityBB
Risk parity and traditional portfolios are usually presented as being philosophically miles apart, but they are actually much closer.

IMF Panel Says ‘No Room for Complacency’ on Global GrowthBB
Steering committee issues warning even as outlook improves * Medium-term risks tilted down while geopolitical tensions rise

What Global Finance Chiefs Are Saying About the EconomyBB
IMF meetings warn against complacency as economy speeds up * Financial crisis of a decade ago still haunts policy makers

American Bulls Clash With Europe’s Bears at World Finance Summit – BB
Dimon, Mnuchin talk up global growth prospects at IIF meeting * European bank chiefs warn of ‘storm clouds’ and another crisis

As the quartet breaks up, central banking leadership flux loomsReuters
The Fed, BoJ,  PBC may all have new bosses in early 2018 and there will be a new head of the ECB the following year.

China Credit Growth Exceeds Estimates Despite Debt Curb VowBB
The broad M2 money supply picked up from the prior record low * Policy leaves little hope of further easing: Commerzbank

PBOC Governor Zhou Says China’s 6.9% Growth ‘May Continue’BB

China: A busy week aheadING
The19th Congress is likely to consolidate Xi Jinping’s power and that's positive for future growth sustainability

The Crash of '87, From the Wall Street Players Who Lived ItBB
Matt Levine: Black Monday and Long-Term Investors – BB
The Crash of 1987 – Barron’s
30 years after Black Monday, could stock market crash again? – MarketWatch
Crash of 1987- CNN Live Coverage – Youtube
What have we learned from October 1987 crash – FED
A Brief History of the 1987 Stock Market Crash – FED
Liquidity and the 1987 stock market crash – Amihud et al
Explaining the 1987 Stock Market Crash and Potential Implications – JP Koning
Portfolio insurance and other fashions  as factors – RJ Shiller
Laughter in the Dark - The Problem of the Volatility Smile – E. Derman

The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions Tech Review
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Austria’s right turn, Catalonia’s moment of truth, China’s next 5 years

Central Bankers Uneasy on Inflation, Global Growth Buoys U.K. Businesses

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

China’s party congress this week * Election results from Austria * Yet another “ECB sources” story * Weaker dollar on CPI numbers

Morning MarketsTF
Austrian conservative Sebastian Kurz is set to take power in Vienna on a right-wing platform that flies in the face of EU political norms. Crude is in the spotlight today with prices rebounding on supply factors surrounding Iraqi forces' attempt to take the disputed Kurdish city of Kirkuk.

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Europe’s first millennial leader — May and Juncker to dine

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

Global Stocks Rise Oblivious Of Growing Geopol Risks; Oil, Commodities Jump On Kurdish Clashes


Kiinan puoluekokous alkaa keskiviikkona | USA:n inflaatio taas odotuksia heikompaa | Öljyn hinta on noussut aamuyön aikana yli prosentin