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Wednesday, February 21

21st Feb - Hawkish minutes, falling PMIs



Market dashboard as 22-Feb-2018. Bond yields to new highs * Vol and correlation elevated, but calm * USDJPY rising * Third red day for stocks





February purchasing manager indices: Europe below expectations, US above expectations


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EUROPE
Giugliano: The Euro Zone Needs More Risk Sharing, But Fewer Risks – BB
France and Germany are making a good start, but it will be hard to build a consensus.

The Euro Area Needs a Fiscal Union – iMFdirect
Without more tangible elements of a fiscal union, the euro area will remain fundamentally vulnerable to shocks.


  PMI
Flash Eurozone Composite PMI –
Markit
Flash Germany Composite PMI – Markit
Flash France Composite PMI – Markit
Euro zone business growth loses momentum in Feb but remains strong – Reuters
German Economy on Track for Fastest Quarterly Growth Since 2011 – BB
Euro Area Hits Speed Bump on Road to Faster Economic Growth – BB


UNITED STATES
Is there a Multilateralism that the US could Like? – Marc Chandler

  FEDERAL RESERVE
Minutes Preview: "The Most Likely Surprise Is 4 Rate Hikes In 2018" – ZH
Minutes Preview: Just One Question - 3 Or 4 Hikes In 2018? – ZH
Five Fed Rate Hikes in 2018 Isn't A Crazy Idea – BB

Goldilocks: Hawkish On Growth And Inflation But Not Enough For 4 Hikes – ZH
Minutes Show Confidence Improving on Growth, Price Outlook – BB
The Annotated Minutes – BB


MARKETS / OTHER
Market's Red Line for Yields Isn't Where Everyone Thinks It Is – BB
Stocks will rise with yields until rates reach 3.5%, CS says * Once they push past 4 percent, equity declines more likely

The Rise of Tech Giants May Be Bad News for the Economy – BB
The dominance of a few firms risks harming productivity and growth, study finds

Stocks Slammed: Dow Dumps Into Red As Bonds Puke – ZH

Dow Plunges 500 Points As Bond Yields, Dollar Spike – ZH


REGULARS
FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT
May on notice, Lloyds £1bn buyback, malicious AI

WSJ City – WSJ
Lloyds Launches Buyback as Profits Rise, Looser Spending Could Force Fed’s Hand

WSJ Economics – WSJ
How Many Times Will the Fed Raise Rates This Year?

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Markets Mark Time

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Commission staff reshuffle — Tax disunity — Bill Gates interview

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

US Open – ZH
Futures, European Stocks Slide After Poor PMIs; Dollar Gains Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Frontrunning – ZH


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tulossa euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit ja Fedin pöytäkirjat | Suomen tammikuun työmarkkinaluvut olivat vahvat | Ruotsin inflaatioluvut heikensivät kruunua

Aamukatsaus – Danske Bank