EUROPE
Nordic Outlook -
October 2018
– Danske
Bank
Denmark:
There is still room for higher employment in low-growth recovery * Sweden: The
Riksbank looks set to hike rates despite the economic slowdown and low core inflation
* Norway: Private consumption and business investment are set to drive more
growth * Finland: Growth is set to decline but to still-high levels
Russia Watch –
Sanctions looming
– ABN
AMRO
Ruble
hit by sanctions and broader EM pressures. Uncertainty on new US sanctions
against Russia is at all time high. Russia is able to withstand a new round of
sanctions because of strong external position. Sanction risk and inflationary
pressures forced CBR to hike rates by 25bp. Growth will remain low in 2019 on
the back of weak investor confidence and lower consumption growth.
GERMANY
Germany's Economy
Is at a Crossroads
– BB
Cracks
are appearing in the heart of Europe. Despite Germany’s historic economic
expansion and Chancellor Angela Merkel just starting her fourth term, there are
increasing signs of instability.
As Merkel’s Star
Begins to Fade, Here’s Who to Watch – BB
ITALY
Italian Bonds
Resume Plunge, Yields Hit Highest Since 2014 – ZH
Can Europe
restrain Italy’s fiscal splurge? – ABN
AMRO
Italy Yields Hit Post-2014 High as Borghi Nods to ‘Own Currency’ – BB
Yield
gap over German bunds climbs above 300 basis points * Fiscal problems would be
solved with own currency, Borghi says
The Best Way to
Answer Italy’s Populists – BB
The
EU shouldn’t dramatize the situation. Just insist politely on the rules and let
Five Star and the League deal with the market fallout.
Italy dragging Europe into the fiscal spending party – Kevin Muir
More
fiscal spending will mean more inflation. For Europe, that’s lower bond prices
and higher stocks. Italy’s foray into the fiscal spending onslaught will
finally bring Europe to where the United States has been since Trump’s
election.
UNITED STATES
US mid-term
election preview: Feeling Blue? – ING
It’s
mid-term election time and opinion polls suggest the Republicans are under
pressure. The loss of Congressional control would make life increasingly
difficult for the President and have major implications for policy. Here we
look at the possible election scenarios and assess their market implications
OTHER
The real exchange
rate, global value chains, and manufacturing performance – voxeu
Real
exchange rate devaluations are typically seen as a viable development strategy,
but the effectiveness of the approach may vary over time and across countries.
This column explores this issue by focusing on the microeconomics of firm-level
responses to exchange rate fluctuations. Results show varying patterns of
responses to fluctuations by region and by import/export orientation. These
results highlight the crucial role of a firm’s integration in global value
chains.
What Does an EV /
EBITDA Multiple Mean?
– Blue
Mountain
REGULARS
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
Brussels Edition
Daily
– BB
Brussels Briefing – FT
Stubb’s
Spitzenkandidat bid takes aim at Orban * The formal race to replace Juncker is
finally beginning to resemble a contest
Eco Day Europe – BB
Decks
Clear for Trade War, Near-Zero Escape, Wage Boom
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
WSJ Daily
Economics –
WSJ
After
a North America Deal, White House Refocuses on Trade With China
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Taking
on tribalism — Juncker’s salt for UK wounds — Trade war is on
Five Things You
Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
Eco Day US – BB
Near-Zero
Escape, Brexit Talks Slog, Nafta Rebrand
US Open – ZH
"It
Will End In Tears": World Stocks, Euro Slide As Italian Contagion Spreads
US Open Rundown – RANsquawk
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
USA:n teollisuuden ISM-indeksi oli pienessä laskussa,
talouden näkymät ovat kuitenkin edelleen vahvat | USMCA-sopimus vahvisti
Kanadan dollaria | Italian korko jatkoi nousuaan