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Tuesday, October 9

9th Oct - IMF lowers outlook, rising yields, trade, Italy


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EUROPE
Squaring off over the Italian budget – Pictet
The Italian government has confirmed its deficit target at 2.4% of GDP for 2019.

Italy: Testing the limits – Nordea
Worries about Italy have picked up again as the government defies both the EU fiscal rules and signals from financial markets. Despite the rough ride, we find that the Italian debt load remains sustainable, albeit barely. Many risks still lie ahead.

Italy: Temporary fiscal push in 2019, but afterwards? – ING
The stated unwillingness to resume the structural adjustment path and very optimistic growth assumptions in the NADEF raise doubts about debt/GDP developments. A more conciliatory post-2019 and a constructive debate on the contents of the budget might yet limit damages inflating market concerns


OTHER
Global Growth Plateaus as Economic Risks Materialize – IMF
Uncertainty over trade policy is becoming a drag on economic activity

Ferdinando Giugliano: ‘Trumponomics’ Takes a Heavy Toll on the World – BB
IMF report shows the impact of U.S. tax cuts and tariffs on global growth and emerging markets.


REGULARS
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

Brussels Edition Daily – BB

Brussels Briefing – FT

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

WSJ Daily Economics – WSJ
IMF Downgrades Global Growth | China’s Yuan Stumbles | U.S.-China Relations Getting Frostier

Danske Daily – Danske Bank
IMF cuts global growth estimate on trade jitters

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
A (Short) Reprieve For China while the Dollar Stays Firm

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Juncker the dancing king — Nixing single-use plastics — Germany’s reality check

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

Eco Day – BB
Trump's Yuan Worries, Nobel Winners, BOJ's Next Move

US Open – ZH
Futures Tumble As 10Y Yield Hits Fresh 7-Year High, Italian Rout Hits Europe

US Open Rundown – RANsquawk

Aamukatsaus – Nordea
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