Summary & View: After debt deal, EURUSD and U.S. stocks down, as I expected. The blame is on bad macro everywhere, in the guise of July PMI’s. Euro sovereign yields and CDS’s also moving up, as expected. Told you so, now hire me. I’m still bearish on stocks, EURUSD. Halfway through the short-term move, so after one or two more down days, cover at least half and continue playing with the market’s money with the other half.
Safe haven CHF and JPY very strong, but rumors of BoJ intervention have weakened the JPY somewhat. Rumors of BoJ getting ready to sell JPY, but no actual intervention or action was seen. Today’s low 77.30 was near last March low of 76, when BoJ intervened heavily, and probably that scared a lot of traders.
EURO CRISIS
Italy-Ger bond yield spread
Central and Eastern Europe countries have not been hit much from the PIIGS contagion. Good and long article with macro review and views from many parties.
A Hungarian Waltz On The Wild Side – A Fistful of Euros
America is merely wounded, Europe risks death – The Telegraph
Short article on continued yield rally and the coming bailout of Cyprus
The Really Real Deal: European Debt Crisis Continued – Also Sprach Analyst
FINANCIAL CRISIS
Good summary of today
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/meanwhile-in-the-global-economy/
Global Manufacturing Slump: Doom for the Economy? – The Curious Capitalist / TIME
Global PMIs and Fed Policy: they're linked – News n Economics
Chart of US 5-yr CDS vs S&P 500
US Default Risk – Bespoke Investment Group
Very nice presentation of the fiscal mess, with good links
The US budget dilemma in context – Humble Student of The Markets
Nice debt graph to put on presentations, highlights the fiscal gap well.
Bloomberg: The Debt Deluge – The Big Picture
Several charts on the U.S. fiscal situation. FRED is a really nice service
Our Problem in Pictures – The Big Picture
Corporate Profit Margins Surpass Pre-Crisis Levels – Can Turtles Fly
OPERATORS
Hedge Fund Giant Bill Miller's Abrupt Fall From Grace – Advanced Trading
HSBC Cuts 30,000 Jobs, Posts Surprise Profit Rise – Advanced Trading
Lansdowne Partners Dumps Its Entire $850 Million Stake In Goldman – Business Insider
EMERGING
Do not underestimate rising EM inflation risk – alphaville FT
What China, Others, Are Saying About US Debt Deal – BRIC Breaker / Forbes
No hard landing, but no solution – China Financial Markets
OTHER
How to use the Fama French Model – Empirical Finance Blog
DIVERSION
Tons of great links to TED talks, book reviews, articles, comics etc.
A Curated Linkfest For The Smartest People On The Web – Simoleon Sense