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Wednesday, August 31

31st Aug Early – PIIGS-hit II: Revenge of the Hellenic Banks


Christian Noyer, joke of the month
Summary: Latest suggestion is to use the Greek bank stocks as collateral for the bailout “loans”. Eurocrats publically in total denial of the banking crisis. Very good euro links today, and the Scholes lecture video posted under diversion is worth the time.

Views: Range trade: Buy EURUSD at-the-market 1.4440, stop 1.4370 target 1.4520. The news just keep getting crazier every day. I’m speechless. Perhaps I’ll comment something later today.

Joke of the Day: "Either she had been misinformed by her staff at the IMF - that's a possibility- or she did not have French banks in mind” – Bank of France governor Christian Noyer rejecting IMF chief Lagarde’s statement that EU banks are in urgent need of recapitalization. Read this for more Noyer-laughs.

EUROCRISIS

EFSF vote in German parliament is moved – new date 29th

Very good euro crisis commentary

“clear causal chain produced by a series of missed opportunities.”

Banks’ buying spree after adoption of euro, then full transfer to less risky (sov’s), which has become most risky. Check mate.
Euro splurge! – alphaville FT

We all know why.

“The squabbling over the Greek bailout shows just how unlikely it is that Europe can solve its greater problems.”
Is the Greek bailout falling apart? – The Curious Capitalist / TIME


EFSF suggests Greek bank share would be used as collateral.
Greek Tragedy: Is This A Joke? – Also Sprach Analyst






EU budget in works: Poland wants "bold" budget 2014 to 2020 to boost growth
 
FINANCIAL CRISIS
Nothing was done during the bull market. ”There are no good solutions now.  Bail out this, bail out that. Eventually there will be a fail of some sort.  I just don’t know what, when or how.”
Missed Opportunities – The Aleph Blog

Repo markets going silent

If the Zero Hedge’s version is not suitable for your sense of self, FT’s take on GS research note:
Goldman’s Q(E3)&A – alphaville FT

Just because I’m a fan of the Saturday Night Live sketch ‘more cowbell’
No More Cowbell – Advisor Perspectives

Economist from Dutch central bank: moral hazard ahoy.

 
EMERGING
After the rumors, confirmation of the ExxonMobil & Rosneft co-op.

Morgan Stanley calculates the external funding needs over the coming years and compares them to current FX reserves. Many other countries look dangerous as well.
 
OTHER
Myron Scholes video presentation, recommended.
Quantitative Finance and the Intermediation Process – Lindau meet of Nobel laureates

Joseph Stiglitz video lecture: macro models, monetary authorities, market liberals have failed. Capital controls would lessen contagion risks and thus lower volatility
Imagining an Economics that Works – Lindau meet of Nobel laureates

NBIM Financial Research Conference’s opening speech by central bank governor

On the risk aversion of Nobel Committee, future of econ etc.
Nobel conclusions – Economics Intelligence
 
DIVERSION



The Limits of Engineering – of two minds

An essay from Der Spiegel translated. Arab Spring’s European version coming?