Happy birthday, Warren Buffett! Here’s the mandatory cake. I have these cheeseburgers and a Diet Coke, it would be an honor to discuss the incredible opportunities currently emerging in the international debt market and the high volatility of index puts. Just five minutes, please, here, let me help myself into your bathtub.
Summary: Italian bond auction was not that hot, and Europe started to rot again. U.S. consumer confidence was bad, but that was more or less expected the way things have been. Funny how everyone else but Rehn and Trichet are worried about the eurobanks. Or actually sad. Read the first two Euro Crisis links, especially the second one. It is obvious that there is still tons of PIIGS-hit (© MoreLiver 2011) in the balance sheets of the European banks, and it will hit the fan some day. By the way, Czechs just released their own stress test results. They were real men and not some wimpy van Rompuy-kind of eurocrats, they actually marked down PIIGS debt to zero!
Views: Another Arab Spring-type of a moment brewing in Belarus?
EURO CRISIS
Bean counters complain that PIIGS-hit is not accounted for at going price
Get Them to the Greek (Writedowns) – IASB – Global Macro Monitor
’cause a 30 per cent loss on assets equivalent to 8 per cent of Core Tier 1 would have reduced capital by, oh, 2.4 per cent. (BNP posted a Core Tier 1 common equity ratio of 9.6 per cent).
Dear ESMA … about those Greek debt impairments – alphaville FT
With comments from 5 banks
Klaus Regling, CEO of EFSF interviewed
Deutsche Bank’s idea of “Eurobonds” that could circumvent the EU Treaty issues. Stealth Eurobond?
Anyone for some non-government debt eurobonds? – alphaville FT
These I raise my hat to – when the Czechs stress test, they mark PIIGS to zero!
Czech these periphery write-downs out – alphaville FT
“European politicians signaled Tuesday that there is no quick fix to the row over Finland's insistence on receiving collateral for taking part in Greece's second bailout, even as the European Commission insisted talks were yielding progress.”
“It’s 2008 all over again”. No new points, but ok summary. This will be read in Washington, D.C.
The Eurozone is Headed for a Crash – Counterpunch
“It’s our aim to come out of this stronger than we went into it, as we did during the banking crisis. I said that in 2009, and look at where the economy is in 2011. This can be achieved again.”
“Euro must be saved, breakup bad”-article. This has already been seen.
Europe’s Shaky Foundations – Project Syndicate
“Slowing Growth in Europe Increases the Risk of a Double Dip”-report.
FINANCIAL CRISIS
Thanks to whistleblower, enough ammo to terminate the SEC and construct a new regulatory watchdog for Wall Street free of obvious conflicts of interest.
1) Extension of QE to e.g. private sector securities, 2) much larger QE with a specific yield target 3) change in Fed’s policy targets.
Goldman Presents The Three "Radical" Measures The Fed May Engage In To Turbocharge An Imminent QE3 – Zero Hedge
Negative real bond yields. If we can think of any investments we can make over the next seven years that have a return of zero% or more, it would be foolish not to borrow this money and make them.
An opportunity we can’t afford to miss – Ezra Klein WP
Robert Shiller: Raise the taxes, raise public spending and create a government agency for public works, to be launched when economy warrants them (like now), just like in 1941.
Yes, We Can Do Stimulus Without Adding Debt. Here’s How. – The New Republic
EMERGING
Only a day after RBS said they don’t want to help them raise money. I suggested then that perhaps this was not only because of RBS’s good soul but perhaps the unmarketability of just another “El Presidente”-country’s bonds
Belarus invites EU and Russia to talks – euobserver.com
[snap]: Belarus floats rouble – beyondbrics FT
Exxon Mobil executives meeting Putin, top managers from Rosneft in a Black Sea resort
[snap] Russia: Exxon/Rosneft top-level talks – beyondbrics FT
OTHER
September Investment Outlook
New-Fangled Love Songs - PIMCO
“what will be most important is just handful of decisions that have a disproportionately large impact on the outcome of the portfolio.”
The WSJ Asks If Stockpicking Is Dead – Random Roger
How the banks and the neoliberals got away with it, again, and managed to put the blame on evil governments.
A good crisis gone to waste – John Kay
5 minute video for people who do not know what they are
Repo Market And Shadow Banking – Macrostory
DIVERSION
Interesting article – the data comes too late, is revised a lot and the policy mechanisms have a delayed effect, making navigating the crisis very hard.
Policymakers Need Better Data on the Economy – Economist’s View
Text and 1hr video of a talk with Jaron Lanier
Here’s an intro to and a summary of the talk for lazy or busy people:
CIA’s report on the fiasco is now public after 50 years.
CIA’s Bay of Pigs foreign policy laid bare – Miami Herald
How WikiLeaks has changed the role of journalism – Socialmedia.biz