Summary: Lots of euro links. On the tenth anniversary 9/11, I remind you of my article collection here. You can follow me Twitter.
Quote of the day: "It seems bureaucrats are at long last realizing that a monetary union without a fiscal union cannot possibly survive. This presents a two-choice dilemma: Save the Euro and Destroy Sovereign Governments or Save Sovereign Governments and Destroy the Euro. Given the propensity for government bureaucrats to mangle everything, there is a third possibility: Destroy the Euro and Destroy Sovereign Governments." – Mish’s
EURO CRISIS
“Something big is about to break as it appears the powers that be are assembling a huge armada of liquidity. Or maybe we’re just paranoid.”
** German Finance Minister Prepares for Possible Greek Bankruptcy – The Big Picture
“the minimum I expect is at least 1 or 2 members leaving the eurozone, restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarian workers, and a few more dissenters to Schengen.”
Germany is preparing for Greek bankruptcy – Credit Writedowns
Jim Rogers: after defaults, people cannot lie about their finances: "It would be a lot of pain between now and then, but boy if that happened in the next month or so, buy all the euros you can,
** European Bankruptcies Will Create a Euro Buying Opportunity – HistorySquared
Eurozone blamed by US for world's economic plight – The Telegraph
“In one sense Greece was finished the moment the Great Recession cut its growth rate (in the second quarter of 2009) from among the highest in Europe to almost zero...when I hear that Germany is planning for a Greek exit from the eurozone, even for a Greek default, I immediately suspect that Germany is planning a controlled disintegration of the eurozone.”
Is Greece finished? – Yanis Varoufakis
Greek failure is just a question of time: EFSF bailout requires every EZ nation’s acceptance, Greece adhering to austerity program and “voluntary” bond swap going through. Too difficult.
Greece, The Eurozone, Uncertainty = Nervous Markets – Daily Capitalist
“it’s going to happen just as a matter of time, not as a matter of if.”
Some Quick Thoughts On Greece’s Potential Default – Also Sprach Analyst
PM vows to push reforms despite opposition – ekathimerini.com
“When it becomes serious, you have to lie, but it hasn't worked recently as the public and the markets are both fed up with lies. Unfortunately, lies are all the Fed, the ECB, and governments have to offer.”
“Germany’s trade surplus is the counterparty to the periphery’s trade deficits, and the excessive debt taken on by the GIIPS was loaned in large part by German banks.”
**Europe's Shotgun Wedding – Unpublishable Thoughts
Adds “split to two” to above post (which only sees disintegration or integration). Suggested working names are Neuro (North) and Seuro (South)
Understanding the Euro with Buck’s Fizz – Deus Ex Macchiato
BB: People “familiar with the matter” told probably next week.
'You Break It, You Own It Europe,' the idea is to allow a European system that allows for sovereign defaults and restructuring in a way that doesn't necessitate contagion risk.
Citi's Willem Buiter: There's A Big Third Option For Europe That Nobody Is Thinking About – Business Insider
John Mauldin’s latest
Preparing for a Credit Crisis – The Big Picture
FINANCIAL CRISIS
Coming failures: PIIGS, U.S. government debt, mortgages, pensions and Medicare, Chinese communist party.
Debt Relief – The Aleph Blog
"Never again will American taxpayers be held hostage by banks that are too big to fail," boomed Barack Obama in January 2010. "If these folks want a fight, it's a fight I'm ready to have".
Best of the blog from Nov 2008-Jan 2009, the difficult times. Might have something for now.
The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 8 – The Aleph Blog
EQUITY
Goldman Sachs’ report on scribd
Weekly Kickstart – GS
OTHER
EMH critique.
Of hurricanes and economic equilibrium – The Physics of Finance
“Companies which focus more on elaborate ways to do their finance forget their main source of income, which is the main business, their cash cow and not derivatives.”
Real Engineering Vs Financial Engineering – Wired and Ready
9/11 – Collection of articles here
Graphic depiction of the total cost – don’t miss the article link
9/11 and the Successful War – Stratfor
DIVERSION
Roger Lowenstein reviews Sylvia Nassar’s latest book:
Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius – Businessweek
..and James Grant’s review:
Follow the Money – WSJ
Interesting thoughts on how sovereign failures are more common we think. 9/11 was one failure. Why sovereign and government debt have become interchangeable words lately?
Michael Ignatieff: 9/11 and the age of sovereign failure – Globe and Mail
Psychopaths among us – hare.org
Forecasting large–scale human behavior using global news media tone in time and space
Supercomputer Predicts Revolution – Alea Blog