 |
| My EURUSD view |
Summary: I am posting early today, because quite frankly I am scared of the coming weekend and want to make the Greek note now, so fame-wise, all your base are belong to MoreLiver before the European close. Rumors of Italian downgrade over the weekend. I just updated an earlier post UBS Rogue Trader.
Views: I believe there is a 70% probability of a Greek credit event this weekend, 20% next week and 10% in the next three weeks, a total of 100%. I guess the total haircut will be 50%, but it should be 70%. With bad luck (and there has been plenty of that lately), a too low of a haircut will mean the same crap is again ahead of us in two years.
I tweeted earlier Buy EURUSD at-the-market (1.3805), stop loss 1.3760, take profit sell 1.3940, market currently 1.3820. I probably tweet a change to this.
EURO CRISIS
** Credit: Greek Charts Of Warning – The Short Side of Long
Catch-22: if the eurocrats recapitalize banks, markets think Greek default is imminent.
Central banks to the rescue – Free exchange / The Economist
Hans-Werner Sinn says it: Greece leaving euro would cause a bank run and burn the balance sheets, but if it stays and devalues slowly, even the bank buildings would burn.
German economist: 'There is no alternative but Greece's euro zone expulsion' – CreditWritedowns
original Die Welt article, Google translation
A critical weekend for the Euro – tradingfloor.com
“We have major event risk over the next 48 hours and it’s more than 25% likely that the above 'extend-and-pretend' Version 10.1 will be accepted.”
European TALF or European Stability Bank - the next step to EU QE – tradingfloor.com
Eurobonds seem impossible, EFSF uncertain. Recent actions preparation for Greek default?
Looking for clues – BNY Mellon
The Fed Bails Out Eurobanks Yet Again – naked capitalism
OTHER
** What TMM have learnt this week – Macro Man
** Why There Is No ‘V’ Rebound This Time – Economist’s View
Something for the ETF lobby to chew on – alphaville / FT