Summary: There is so much happening right now and as usual, there is a flow of analysis and reports after the weekend. Skim the short summaries, I’ve marked the most important reads with asterisks. You can check the calendar page, access bond- and CDS charts, and follow me on Twitter or email me
News roundups:
Monday’s Headlines – Between The Hedges
Tuesday Watch – Between The Hedges
EURO CRISIS
“Will Europe become a collection of pawns? Or unify into a great nation?”
** The Fate of Europe, nearing the point of decision – Fabius Maximus
Link to full report from Morgan Stanley
** In The Meantime, ECB QE Is On In Full Force With About $100 Billion In Open Market Bond Repruchases In Past Month – Zero Hedge
“The Germans are in complete denial: they push for austerity and hate fiscal integration, ECB bond purchases and loose monetary policy – and don’t want to lose their trade surplus.”
** Europe, through the looking glass – Free exchange / The Economist
Roundup of themes and view from UBS
** UBS' George Magnus Says European "Viability Is Far From Assured" – Zero Hedge
Best hope: throw away the hopeless countries, weaken the currency, recapitalize core institutions.
The Final Act of ‘The Tragedy of the EMU’ – EconoMonitor
“It will take years to renegotiate and ratify new treaties, even assuming there is no blockage of the sort that beset the Constitutional Treaty. But the euro zone faces critical days and weeks.”
** Time is running out – Charlemagne’s notebook / The Economist
(pdf) Full e-book, 153 pages of articles
EMU breakdown would be deflationary
Negative forward curves signal hunger for dollar liquidity even greater than for gold
Cash for gold, financial market edition – alphaville / FT
“You would not want to be short the Euro if we woke up some morning and found that the Euro members were narrowed down to France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands (and Belgium too).”
On FX - Shit or go Blind? – Bruce Krasting
Greece
Emergency bank funding from Greek central bank was up in July by €13.3bn. or 5.6% of GDP – and it increased in August.
** Sundry secret Greek liquidity – alphaville / FT
After $150bn of bailouts, consensus is that either Greece fails and leaves euro, or fails and stays in euro. Now the European unity is gone.
The euro crisis comes to a head – Felix Salmon / Reuters
"one more" tranche of bailout money.
Greek Bank Deposits Decline For 7th Month In A Row: Tax Collectors Celebrate By Striking – Zero Hedge
Greece Won’t Default, Yet – The Source / WSJ
Italy
Italy’s bond auction coming today.
The ECB’s Italian Job – Daily Capitalist
Recession and crisis coming, change of leaders required
“China is no white knight here. They are trying to save their own skin.”
The irony behing China’s European bond buying – Pragmatic Capitalism
“We don't understand what Europe is. If your central bank doesn't buy your bonds, why should we buy them?”
Banks
Charts of bank leverage, bank assets, bond yield
The European debt crisis in charts – News N Economics
The true problem is not the banking system. Europe is facing a crisis of government debt.
The defense plan of the bank in coming case against FHFA
Nomura make the (likely, ambiguous) case for the defense – alphaville FT
Good roundup, views and links on the Independent Commission on Banking’s report
Ring-Fencing and the Vickers Report – Rortybomb
Nice ideas, needs some work — but is there enough legal basis?
Vickers harmonies – alphaville / FT
Jamie Dimon Used To Live In America – Dealbreaker
OTHER
PIMCO’s El-Erian: “The G-7 is fortunate that it is not required to justify the expenses of its meetings in terms of what is achieved. If it had to, these meetings would be more decisive and/or less frequent.”
The G-7 Disappoints Again – Reuters
Target2 offers useful liquidity monitoring tool: Netherlands Bank paper
DIVERSION
Summary of a HBR article, link to full article
Effective Forecasting by Paul Saffo - HistorySquared
10 Tips for Making Beautiful Slideshow Presentations – The Big Picture
How SETI@Home Screens ET Candidates – technology review