Friday, September 30
Thursday, September 29
Tuesday, September 27
|Latest winner, source: Zero Hedge|
We have an epic rally in the equity space because of some news of a possible plan to leverage up the EFSF, CDO-SIV style? What has materially change today? Not much.
And my good credit friend to comment:
"Another volatile day in the equity market …. On rumors, rumors and more rumors of EFSF, ESM, EIB, ECB …. And overall leveraging of the existing system …. It may make the trick for a while, but I tend to think it will not be long before Mr Market rejects that “too complicated to work” puzzle."
The plan so far is sketchy at least and fraught with danger.
Monday, September 26
|“There is no plan, and we don’t need one”|
Saturday, September 24
|This is how it goes, click to enlarge, source: BBC|
Terrible week in the markets, no hope, only delusion, denial, empty promises, one more drink, one more turn, I will never hit you again. None of it is true anymore. Four weeks ago it used to be that the price was the news, in absence of solid, trustworthy politicians and central bankers. Price was followed, as it knew what was what. Now all markets are manipulated, squeezed, closed, restricted or kept in the dark. Market participants have no news, no prices and no statements or rules, so now rumors of rumors are moving the markets.
Friday, September 23
Thursday, September 22
Wednesday, September 21
I could not resist putting this video here, because every time I hear this, I just have to party! Safe for work, only the song plays. Happy Ben-Watch!
Here are the Fed watch-articles I have linked to previously, nicely collected to a separate post. Have fun. Remember, you might feel powerless, prone to mishap and ridiculed, but you will never be as impotent as modern monetary policy. Other similar posts are the collections UBS rogue trader and What happens if Greece defaults. Leave a comment, follow me on Twitter or email me. Updated 16:30 GMT
Presignaled: twist, lower interest on excess reserves or better communication.
Further easing from FED is completely expected by the markets, so instead of the normal sell-on-the-news, I actually think the opposite happens: expect a two-day risk-on party after the announcements, whatever they are.
Tuesday, September 20
Summary: Varied headlines from cooked up Greek stats, CDS intervention, copper as a leading indicator for China, and then standard Fed watch and Greek misery. IMF reports came out, but nobody cares. Instead, leave a comment, follow me on Twitter or email me. UBS rogue trader updated
Monday, September 19
Summary: nothing new, this week’s main events FOMC (two days, announcement on Wednesday, not expecting much, but something), IMF meeting, continued Greek struggle. UBS rogue trader updated. Leave a comment, follow me on Twitter or email me.
Sunday, September 18
Friday, September 16
|My EURUSD view|
Thursday, September 15
I plan to update this page occasionally, as the story develops. Last update 26th Sep 15:00 GMT, latest posts at the bottom of the page. The views on the incident seem to get nastier by the time.
This is just crisis porn and more suitable for late-night viewing. Fortunes have been made and mostly lost, so this is a good primer on what to expect (FT writing about your Facebook status updates) when the middle office finds those hidden trade confirmations. If you have been lucky or only somewhat unlucky in the markets, this can be thought as a reminder that things could be much, much worse for you. Good luck, follow me on Twitter or email me.
16th Sep updates
18th Sep updates
Scapegoatia-UBS reveals details of Trades – The Trader
19th Sep updates
20th Sep updates
21st Sep updates
The UBS-Adoboli Scandal Shows the Problem of Negatively Skewed Risk is Still With Us – EconoMonitor
22nd Sep updates
Why Banks Don't Listen to their Risk Managers and Risk Losing Billions – Advanced Trading
23rd Sep updates
(reg) UBS Trader Faces New Charge – WSJ
24th Sep updates
UBS Chief Resigns Over Trading Scandal – NYT
25th Sep updates
UBS: Ossie out – Schumpeter / The Economist
26th Sep updates
UBS’s Grübel Steps Down, More May Follow – The Source / WSJ
27th Sep updates