 |
| The European ratings look...kind of sad? |
Good weekend everyone! No Greek news here, I push all of them to Greek Deal Roundup. I have published several linkfests during the weekend, check them if you are new here.For my views, read this, this and this. I would love to get some feedback and requests: I am on Twitter, Facebook, email and paper.li
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Finns Party Soini: Make The Greek Collateral Deal Public – Dow Jones
Finland demanded collateral to participate in Greek rescue, government declared collateral deal classified, Finns Party wants documents made public
There Will Be Contagion – John Mauldin / The Big Picture
Sarkozy: Problem Solved, Or… Germany to Sarkozy: It’s Not Over · The ISDA Steps Up · No Winners in Ugly Greek Debt Deal, Only Lessons · And By the Way, Close Your Borders ·
The Next Greek Tragedy · Orlando, Stockholm, Paris, and Staying Young
Dutch Freedom Party pushes euro exit as €2.4 trillion rescue bill looms – The Telegraph
The Dutch Freedom Party has called for a return to the Guilder, becoming the first political movement in the eurozone with a large popular base to opt for withdrawal from the single currency.
EURO CRISIS: PIIGS
The clouds hanging over the Eurozone seem to have cleared – for now. But it wasn’t long ago that people were looking at Italy and calling for debt restructuring. This column argues that such a move would have triggered bank runs, financial instability, and perhaps the break up of the euro. It says that Italy’s debt is sustainable at current levels so long as the government manages its spending.
Europe has ring-fenced Greece's debt crisis for now but its escalating recourse to legal legerdemain has shattered the trust of global bond markets and may ultimately expose Portugal, Spain, and Italy to greater danger.
Prepare for Haircuts on Portuguese Debt – Mish’s
Portugal is poised to blow up anytime now. Greece is already pricing in further writedowns. Expect Ireland and Spain to ask for writedowns. Eventually voters in Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, or possibly even France will get fed up with these repeated bailouts at taxpayer expense and demand action. So will voters in Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, all bleeding profusely from "help".
Two lessons from the Greek crisis – voxeu.org
1) Delay is costly 2) “More Europe” is (not) the solution
EURO CRISIS: ECB
Germany Turns Up Pressure on ECB – WSJ
Growing more confident that the acute phase of the euro-zone debt crisis may be passing, Germany is beginning to put pressure on the ECB to start mopping up the extra cash that it has flooded into European markets to stem the spread of financial contagion. h/t Alea
Growing more confident that the acute phase of the euro-zone debt crisis may be passing, Germany is beginning to put pressure on the ECB to start mopping up the extra cash that it has flooded into European markets to stem the spread of financial contagion. h/t Alea
Draghi's message to the politicians was, "We've done our part, it's time for you to do yours" as he hinted that not only would there be no further LTROs, but the next ECB step would be some form of tightening. How much of that is to be believed?
Fed versus ECB: How Target debts can be repaid – voxeu.org
Hans-Werner Sinn: In Feb 2012, the Bundesbank had a Target claim of €547 billion on the Eurosystem. This column proposes a US-like system of marketable covered treasury bills that could be applied to a yearly settlement of Target liabilities. h/t “Kessu”
JPM: The ECB may need to print a LOT more…the net balance of payments in the periphery shows money flowing out and ECB financing covers these flows only partially. More will come.
Draghi Oil Dilemma Risks Worsening Recession: Euro Credit – BB
Mario Draghi is trapped between accelerating inflation and slowing growth, making it hard for him to defend countries such as Italy and Spain from the ravages of recession.
Mario Draghi is trapped between accelerating inflation and slowing growth, making it hard for him to defend countries such as Italy and Spain from the ravages of recession.
OTHER
After the Credit Suisse report, now Capital Economics comes out with their own.
Shipping is a leading deflationary indicator – Macronomics
Very nice roundup from our regular guest poster
Only couple of countries (Canada, Brazil, South Korea) are expanding AND improving.
Seasonal factors distorting data – Danske (pdf)
The collapse and ensuing rebound in economic data caused by the 2008/09 financial crisis seems to have affected the seasonal adjustment of two key US data series – the ISM manufacturing index and the payrolls report. The change in seasonal factors has generally lifted data during the winter months and now we expect to see some payback, which has already materialised in February’s manufacturing ISM.
OFF-TOPIC
A Unified Theory of Social Change – HBR
Most conversations about changing the world eventually degenerate into despair or, after a hands-in-the-air "well, anyway..." segue, they lapse into a conversation about something more practical or pressing. That's because most discussions related to big change are about tactics rather than strategy at the scale of the question
Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas – Paul Graham
One of the more surprising things I've noticed while working on Y Combinator is how frightening the most ambitious startup ideas are. In this essay I'm going to demonstrate this phenomenon by describing some. Any one of them could make you a billionaire. That might sound like an attractive prospect, and yet when I describe these ideas you may notice you find yourself shrinking away from them.
Miniature E-Books Let Journalists Stretch Legs – NYT
They’re works of long-form journalism that seek out that sweet spot between magazine articles and hardcover books.
The Personal Analytics of My Life – Wired
Stephen Wolfram: One day I’m sure everyone will routinely collect all sorts of data about themselves. But because I’ve been interested in data for a very long time, I started doing this long ago.
Neurons versus Free Will – Intelligent Life
The notion of free will is under attack again, this time from the advance of neuroscience. Anthony Gottlieb explains...
Teen Exploits Three Zero-Day Vulns for $60K Win in Google Chrome Hack Contest – Wired
Just hours before the end of Google’s $1 million hack challenge, a teenager who once applied to work at Google without getting a response, hacked the company’s Chrome browser using three zero-day vulnerabilities, one of which allowed him to escape the browser’s security sandbox.
Why the iPad 3 Won't Replace Your Laptop – pcmag.com
Twitter’s Secret History As the World’s Worst Tech or Media Business – Gawker
Feast – BPS Research
Tuck into our round-up of the latest and best psych and neuro links
Searching for aliens: The wow factor – The Economist
A new citizen-science project will improve the chances of finding ET
Meeting Of Central Bankers, “Godfather” Style – The Big Picture
We thought it might be interesting to reconstruct the scene and substitute the heads of the Five Families with the heads of some central banks and finance ministries.
Book Bits For Saturday – The Capital Spectator