Here is the lunchtime roundup of the blogosphere. Lots on China, and several good ones on Europe - don't miss the two highlighted links under Other. Ireland and Portugal next in the bailouts & restructurings queue. For my current views read this, this and this.Have a good one, to the links:
For those just returning after the weekend, here’s what you have missed:
Morning briefs for Monday morning
Best of the Week previous week’s best articles in one post
Bridgewater & Trading the best hedge fund in the world
Weekender: ECB getting squeezed weekend’s reading package
Weekly Support weekly summaries and previews
and my two recent posts that are continuously updated:
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Portugal Gradually Shuffles Its Way Up Towards The Front Of The Debt Queue – Edward Hugh / EconoMonitor
9.3 billion euro bond redemption due in September next year and the despite initial Troika hopes, the markets remain closed…
Barclays: Whether it be their direct actions with Greece (specifically subordinating the world) or their indirect actions with LTRO collateral needs, the systemic risk of Europe's banking/sovereign credit system is far higher now than it was before…
discusses global impact of European bank deleveraging. The March issue also provides highlights from the latest BIS data on international banking and financial activity. Press release here
While the Second Greek Bailout may or may not be complete (depending on whether we get a credit event as a result of it), Germany can and will walk from the Euro if it needs to. This is the unforeseen black swan everyone is ignoring.
Several Eurozone countries are currently struggling with acute fiscal crises. This column argues that Sweden provides an example that fiscal transparency and a high-quality economic policy debate may be more important for budget discipline than formally binding rules and automatic correction mechanisms as being envisaged in the European fiscal compact.
Sarkozy Threatens to Limit Immigration, Delivers Ultimatum to EU, Proposes "Buy European Act"; Help Wanted, French Citizens Only – Mish’s
One of the major weaknesses of the EMU, aside from the all-important lack of a fiscal union is language barriers… Sarkozy, has now threatened to take those already huge difficulties one step further with a policy that is tantamount to "Help Wanted, French Citizens Only". These are exactly the kinds of disputes that ensure that the eurozone as constructed cannot possibly survive.
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
But what Greek experience actually shows is that while running deficits in good times can get you in trouble — which is indeed the story for Greece, although not for Spain — trying to eliminate deficits once you’re already in trouble is a recipe for depression.
Net, Gross, Or GROSS – TF Market Advisors
We rallied after Lehman filed. Be careful until it becomes more clear where the bodies are buried.
CHINA SPECIAL
China-India inflation: reasons to worry – beyondbrics / FT
Oil futures declined on the news that China’s export growth rate was slowing based on data released over the weekend. This might seem good news for inflation in India and China but don’t celebrate just yet: the respite is likely to be short-lived.
The weakest loan growth figures since 2005 may prompt further easing by China’s central bank, according to analysts, if the country is to avoid a significant slowdown in demand.
I do not think we have seen any substantial rebalancing of the economy towards consumption in 2011. This is largely an argument being made by economists who did not see why Chinese consumption repression was all along at the heart of the growth model.
…these growth numbers are materially overstating the actual capital investment.
My biggest worry is that Beijing’s policy mandarins will drag their feet on reform. By freeing up the exchange rate, interest rates and capital flows, they would be forcing drastic change on the pillars of the country’s investment-and-export-led growth model – change that is badly needed, but not happening quickly enough. By continuing to cling to old policies, however, Beijing is potentially leading the economy into a dead end.
SocGen’s analyst writes why among the generally slow Chinese economic data for January and February, there was a surprisingly strong showing for property-related investment.
Now that Taiwan’s elections are over and a new cabinet has had time to settle in, investors are turning to the question, “What comes next in cross-Strait relations?”
OTHER
Things that make you go hmmm... – Grant Williams via The Trader
Global Imbalances and Social Challenges – LSE
From last June but just to advertise it again: Severino from French ministry of finance, and Wolf from FT, excellent lectures and debate, full audio, video and slide files.
Hubble, Bubble, Index Trouble – The Psy-Fi Blog
The ideal of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, in which we track the market, is the one that the index tracker aspires to, helping us to avoid all of the self-inflicted pain that behavioral biases create. Yet the impact of the index tracker, as it becomes popular, in part due to investors realising that they suffer from behavioral bias, is to drive constituent stock valuations away from fundamental valuations.
A Curated Linkfest For The Smartest People On The Web! – Simoleon Sense
CDS As Insurance Contracts? – TF Market Advisors
The Insurance industry and regulators seem to cause far more problems than they fix, and if AIG – an insurance company – is the poster child for what went wrong with CDS, why is there any belief treating it as an insurance company would have any benefits?