Good morning! Here are the morning briefings and links to couple of interesting articles I missed in last night’s Intervene, Unforeseen?. Next update after the US close - no lunch reviews today! Next weekend I will write my thoughts and lessons learned on intervention, plus an angry rant aimed at the eurocrats – if I can change and you can change, everybody can change.
News roundup – Between The Hedges
News roundup – The Trader
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)
Bernanke repeats cautious view on the US economy in interview. Stock markets retreat on concern about strength of global recovery, bond yields slightly lower and particularly commodity currencies weaker. Focus today on eurozone money supply and credit growth and durable goods orders in the US.
Morning Briefing – BNYMellon
In the first three parts of our review of the quarter we have focused on geopolitical issues. Today we start to turn to more structural matters.
Market Preview – Saxo Bank
With Asian markets trading weak, European markets are likely to open in negative territory Wednesday, ahead of the US durable goods orders scheduled for release later today.
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
EURO CRISIS
This week, Grant is digging deep into the history and mystery of the European Union, taking us all the way back to the first inter-country treaty in April 1951 and then following the rather tortuous bureaucratic proceedings that led, by hook and by crook, to today’s increasingly problematic eurozone.
Has the ECB hit a limit? – voxeu.org
“Should the inflation outlook worsen, we would immediately take preventive steps”. This column argues that these are brave words given that the ECB has hit a limit in its ability to prevent an acceleration of inflation.
STOCK MARKET VIEWS
Risk := ON – The Psy-Fi Blog
For everyone else, it’s time to rally to the value investing flag. When everyone seems to think it’s safe to invest it’s probably time to ratchet up the safety measures and start applying even more care than usual to individual investing decisions.
The bar is set low for 1 st quarter earnings – Pragmatic Capitalism
Zacks Investment Research full research letter
The Incredibly Non-mean-reverting Corporate Profits – Macrofugue
No such mean-reversion. Future profits are actually well correlated with past profits, but the relationship slips into statistical insignificance - but not into negative (mean-reverting) territory to much degree of statistical significance.
The Unstoppable US Equity Rally In Perspective – ZH
Couple of charts from Deutsche Bank: So a move of this size and velocity (and smoothness) has only occurred 7 times in the history of the S&P 500 and a quick glance at some of those dates marks some notable periods in US economics (and global geopolitics).
Couple of charts from Deutsche Bank: So a move of this size and velocity (and smoothness) has only occurred 7 times in the history of the S&P 500 and a quick glance at some of those dates marks some notable periods in US economics (and global geopolitics).
OTHER
Population and Growth – Macrofugue
The lead/lag correlations between population growth and economic growth.
Time to set banking regulation right – voxeu.org
Excessive risk-taking by large banks was among the main causes of the 2008–09 financial crisis. This column argues that the antidote to excessive risk-taking should come from the elimination of the subsidies of the banking charter and the implicit promise of bailout in case of major losses, and the introduction of strong incentives for management and shareholders to preserve the capital of their bank.
The Billion Dollar Club of hedge funds – Sober Look
Here are the latest statistics on the largest hedge funds, the so called Billion Dollar Club