29th Mar - Roll over and play dead

Again choice articles on eurocrisis. Commentary on Europe clearly negative, Petet Tchir’s piece Austerity – Mais, non is a must-read.

News And Market Re-Cap – RanSquawk / ZH

The euro zone today – MacroScope / Reuters

  Bonds, strikes and firewalls

The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT

EM New York headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Morning MarketBeat – MarketBeat / WSJ

  Here we go again. Rising bond yields in Spain suggest Europe’s debt woes may flare up again

EZ Crisis Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

  Wilders may withdraw support for Dutch minority government; Talks break down over budget and calls for euro referendum

TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph

Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT

FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

EURO CRISIS
LTRO, interbank stress and banks’ stock prices: a conundrum? – Bruegel

This result suggests that the ECB helped ensure the funding of banks but did not bail-out banks. As would be expected with refinancing operations, the ECB will only step into a loss after the value of the collateral and the value of equity is exhausted. Seen from this angle, the ECB helped the financial system’s stability but not the shareholders of banks.

Europe takes one step back? – Humble Student of the Markets

Cam Hui sees downside volatility, but believes structural reforms in Europe are happening and Spain is not necessarily a failed case.

EURO CRISIS: PIIGS

Moody's takes actions on seven Portuguese banks; Outlook negative – Moody’s

Long discussion and analysis.

If you thought Greek bondholders were subordinated – alphaville / FT

Nomura’s Dimitris Drakopoulos and Lefteris Farmakis have penned a great “To PSI or not to PSI?” note about a Portuguese sovereign default.

Two Big Days for Spain – Open Europe

Whatever the size of the cuts announced tomorrow, the sensation is that today's will not be the last general strike the Spanish government will have to contend with.

Austerity – Mais, non. Spending – Nein. PSI – Tal Vez? – TF Market Advisors

Now is the time.  Portugal 75% haircut.  Ireland 50%.  Spain 40% haircut (once they put all the Spanish guaranteed debt on balance sheet, they will need 40%).  Italy 25%.  Greece – just make EU and ECB eat the same dish they served to public sector.  Only IMF money is sacrosanct.  The ECB, EFSF, and EU can take losses like the rest of us.  The EU talks about “firewalls”, well, put up or shut up.  The ECB can print away the losses.

OIL

Strategic Briefing: Oil Supply & Demand – The Capital Spectator

Links and summaries to recent articles and reports

Saudi Arabia resorts to Jedi mindtricks – alphaville / FT

Could it be that the Saudis have taken a leaf out of the Fed’s book, an institution also known to have lost  firepower, and resorted to communications as a policy instrument in its own right? That is, when all else fails, resort to Jedi mindtricks: “This is not the supply shortage you’re looking for”.

OTHER

Overnight Sentiment: Lower – ZH
Bank of America’s US open update, analyst comments on Italian auction

Is A Bad NFP Print Days Away - Goldman Says Warm Weather Added 70,000-100,000 Jobs; Now It's Payback Time – ZH

China and Brazil Equity Markets Rolling Over – Global Macro Monitor

Stock markets down, seemingly at support but looking bad.

Foreigners Turn Net Sellers Of Japanese Bonds – MarketBeat / WSJ

OFF-TOPIC

Berlin's Reputation as a Party Town Under Threat – Der Spiegel

Berlin's famous club scene is under threat from residents complaining about the noise and investors bent on converting venues into posh apartments. Now local politicians plan to set up a fund to rescue the city's reputation as a trendy party town.