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Thursday, March 29

29th Mar - Roll over and play dead


Again choice articles on eurocrisis. Commentary on Europe clearly negative, Petet Tchir’s piece Austerity – Mais, non is a must-read.


News And Market Re-Cap – RanSquawk / ZH
The euro zone todayMacroScope / Reuters
  Bonds, strikes and firewalls
The Lunch Wrapalphaville / FT
EM New York headlinesbeyondbrics / FT
Morning MarketBeatMarketBeat / WSJ
  Here we go again. Rising bond yields in Spain suggest Europe’s debt woes may flare up again
EZ Crisis Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
  Wilders may withdraw support for Dutch minority government; Talks break down over budget and calls for euro referendum

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

EURO CRISIS
LTRO, interbank stress and banks’ stock prices: a conundrum?Bruegel
This result suggests that the ECB helped ensure the funding of banks but did not bail-out banks. As would be expected with refinancing operations, the ECB will only step into a loss after the value of the collateral and the value of equity is exhausted. Seen from this angle, the ECB helped the financial system’s stability but not the shareholders of banks.

Europe takes one step back?Humble Student of the Markets
Cam Hui sees downside volatility, but believes structural reforms in Europe are happening and Spain is not necessarily a failed case.

EURO CRISIS: PIIGS
Moody's takes actions on seven Portuguese banks; Outlook negativeMoody’s
Long discussion and analysis.

If you thought Greek bondholders were subordinatedalphaville / FT
Nomura’s Dimitris Drakopoulos and Lefteris Farmakis have penned a great “To PSI or not to PSI?” note about a Portuguese sovereign default.

Two Big Days for Spain Open Europe
Whatever the size of the cuts announced tomorrow, the sensation is that today's will not be the last general strike the Spanish government will have to contend with.

Austerity – Mais, non. Spending – Nein. PSI – Tal Vez?TF Market Advisors
Now is the time.  Portugal 75% haircut.  Ireland 50%.  Spain 40% haircut (once they put all the Spanish guaranteed debt on balance sheet, they will need 40%).  Italy 25%.  Greece – just make EU and ECB eat the same dish they served to public sector.  Only IMF money is sacrosanct.  The ECB, EFSF, and EU can take losses like the rest of us.  The EU talks about “firewalls”, well, put up or shut up.  The ECB can print away the losses.

OIL
Strategic Briefing: Oil Supply & Demand The Capital Spectator
Links and summaries to recent articles and reports

Saudi Arabia resorts to Jedi mindtricks alphaville / FT
Could it be that the Saudis have taken a leaf out of the Fed’s book, an institution also known to have lost  firepower, and resorted to communications as a policy instrument in its own right? That is, when all else fails, resort to Jedi mindtricks: “This is not the supply shortage you’re looking for”.

OTHER
Overnight Sentiment: LowerZH
Bank of
America’s US open update, analyst comments on Italian auction

Is A Bad NFP Print Days Away - Goldman Says Warm Weather Added 70,000-100,000 Jobs; Now It's Payback TimeZH

China and Brazil Equity Markets Rolling OverGlobal Macro Monitor
Stock markets down, seemingly at support but looking bad.

Foreigners Turn Net Sellers Of Japanese BondsMarketBeat / WSJ

OFF-TOPIC
Berlin's Reputation as a Party Town Under ThreatDer Spiegel
Berlin's famous club scene is under threat from residents complaining about the noise and investors bent on converting venues into posh apartments. Now local politicians plan to set up a fund to rescue the city's reputation as a trendy party town.