9th Mar - Greek Deal Roundup

So, the Greek deal is "done" - here's a roundup of what the news agencies and blogs have on the topic. I will update this post as the story develops, latest updates at the bottom of the post. You might want to refer to my Greek Exit Collection from 12-Feb in case of a hard default. I hold on to my views that this was a case of buy the rumor & sell the news. For my views, read this (from last night), this and this. 

News roundup – Between The Hedges

News roundup – The Trader

Emerging London Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Press digests by Reuters: FT, WSJ, NYT

Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)

  US payrolls, Eurogroup teleconference on Greece, Greek debt swap

Morning Briefing – BNY Mellon

Market Preview – Saxo Bank
  Europe expected to open higher after Greek swap, US payrolls.

TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph

Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT

  

EURO CRISIS: GREEK DEAL

Greece Issues Statement On PSI, Says €172 Billion Of Bonds Tendered In Swap, Will Enact CACs, ISDA To Meet At 1pm To Find If CDS Trigger – ZH
 

Greece’s New Bond Yields May Reach 20% After Exchange, Morgan Stanley Says – BB

Gray Market "Fresh Start" Greek Bond, Aka GGB2 Full Pricing Grid – ZH

Trading Greece After The PSI – ZH

Morgan Stanley’s research note

Greece Pulls Trigger: 96% of Bonds to Swap – MarketBeat / WSJ

Greek PSI — the results – alphaville / FT

includes the press release from Greek M of Fin.

Those new Greek bond yields…  – alphaville / FT

The new bond yields are high, higher than Portugal’s, pricing in a big default risk: technically these bonds are under English law, co-financed alongside the EFSF loan to Greece, etc. That would make another default tricky.

Question of balance as euro zone crisis mutates – Reuters

With Greece's second bailout seemingly in the bag at last, Spain is shaping up as the next big test of whether euro zone policymakers can keep striking the right balance between carrot and stick to reconcile the very different interests of lenders, debtors and markets.

Greece claims success after strong bond swap take-up – Reuters

Greece claimed a major success for its bond swap offer to private creditors on Friday after it won heavy acceptance for a deal that averts the immediate risk of an uncontrolled default on its massive public debt.

Euro Drops as Greece Uses Collective Action Clauses – BB

ISDA Panel to Meet Today to Decide If Greece Swap Constitutes Credit Event – BB

Here’s the Greek Bond Tally – MarketBeat / WSJ
Probably less than €9bn holdouts: either Greece pays them (does not have the funds) or not (defaults)

Greece clinches do-or-die bond-swap deal – euobserver.com

Greek PSI — the analyst reaction – alphaville / FT

Standard Chartered, Lloyds, SocGen and RaboBank give their views

The Greek debt deal: A slight wrinkle – Buttonwood’s / The Economist

Greece clinches do-or-die bond-swap deal – euobserver.com

Greece: It's the geopolitics, stupid! – euobserver.com

Goldman: "Greece Post PSI" – ZH
GS: Following the finalization of the PSI exchange offer, the Eurogroup will convene to decide on the next steps with respect to the new Greece financing deal. Two areas of residual transactional uncertainty remain

Greek PSI — the implications – alphaville / FT
JP Morgan: Depending on the strategy chosen, there is a risk of antagonizing European counterparts (which could threaten Greece with cutting off support, e.g., through the ECB), or antagonizing Greek society (through forced front-loaded tightening).

Greek Creditors Don’t Get The Courtesy Of A Reach-Around – TF Market Advisors

The market now knows that the PSI will be “successful” and a massive amount of debt will be wiped out, but the new bonds are being quoted “when and if issued” at prices ranging from the high teens to mid twenties.   Why are the new bonds so weak?  SUBORDINATION!

OpenEurope Verdict On Greek PSI - Pyrrhic Victory Sowing Seeds Of A Political And Economic Crisis In Europe – ZH

Podcasts (each about 25min)

Monument’s Ostwald Says Greek Swap Deal Solves Nothing – BB (mp3)

UBS’s Siegenthaler Says Greek Swap Provides Some Relief – BB (mp3)

Axa’s Chaney Says Concerns Over Greece Will End – BB (mp3)

 

Greek Debt Is Restructured in Deal With Lenders – NYT

Greece’s new-bonds era arrives – Felix Salmon / Reuters

On Jobs and CACs? – Pension Pulse

Gold Celebrates Formal Greek CAC Activation With $40 Intraday Move Higher – ZH
 

Fitch Downgrades Greece From C To Restricted Default - Full Text – ZH
 

Greek PSI Participation Rate Spin… – TF Market Advisors

Podcast:

Pimco’s Gross Says Greek Default Swaps to Be Triggered – BB (mp3)

Ok guys, hands up who booked the weird Greece CDS trades… – alphaville / FT

Disaster stalks triumph for Greece as debt deal leaves Eurozone taxpayers at risk – Open Europe

Europe is probably on course for a major political shock. Taxpayers in Germany, Finland and the Netherlands will not take kindly to having to pay (and see their debt and deficits increase), as Greek loan guarantees are turned into Greek losses.

Greek bond swap: Reaction – The Telegraph

Greek bond swap: Q&A – The Telegraph

Greece Pushes Bondholders Into Record Debt Swap – BB
 

EU Approves $47 Billion for Greece While Backing Bond Swap With Creditors – BB

* ISDA CDS TRIGGER *

ISDA CDS Trigger Decision Is Unanimous – ZH

Isda Greece credit event? There is – alphaville / FT

Greek Credit-Default Swaps Are Activated – DealBook / NYT

Greece’s CDS: more lucky than smart – Felix Salmon / Reuters

CDS Aren’t Worthless After All – MarketBeat / WSJ
 

No Winners In Ugly Greek Debt Deal, Only Lessons – MarketBeat / WSJ

Did ISDA Make A Meal Of Greece CDS Trigger Decision? – MarketBeat / WSJ
 

As First Greek CDS "Anstalt" Appears, A Question Emerges: Did Banks Not Square Off Margins? – ZH

What Next For CDS? – TF Market Advisors

Greece "Credit Event" Triggers $3B in CDS Contracts; Wolfgang Schäuble Issues Another Warning to Greece; Eurozone Exit Trigger Is Cocked – Mish’s

The Greek default: Trigger those swaps – Buttonwood’s / The Economist

The latest on the Greek saga – Sober Look

Greece Has Defaulted: Here Is Where We Stand – ZH

Issue Of CDS Reliability Is Moot, Says ISDA Counsel – MarketBeat / WSJ
 

“A harder Default To Come” – Testosterone Pit

Next Time, Greece May Need New Tactics – NYT

Greece Deal Triggers $3B in Default Swaps: ISDA – BB

Traders will hold the auction March 19 to “maximize” the number of bonds that can be used to set payout amounts

The Eight Hundred Pound Greek Gorilla Enters The Room – ZH 1, ZH 2

Detailed below are some of the “OTHER” sovereign obligations of the Greek government which have now been submitted to the ISDA and I list some of them below. You will note that there are bank bonds, Hellenic Railway bonds, Urban Transportation bonds et al that are guaranteed by Greece.

Two lessons from the Greek crisis – voxeu.org

1) Delay is costly 2) “More Europe” is (not) the solution 

Greece is 'likely to need third bail-out' – The Telegraph

A third bail-out for Greece cannot be ruled out, a senior European Central Bank (ECB) official said, as the country's troika of lenders prepared to rubber-stamp its €130bn (£109bn) second financial rescue.

Forget 'economic spring' - Greek outlook is stormy – The Telegraph

While last week's debt swap was obviously important, there is still a very real danger of Greece needing yet another bail-out quite soon and eventually leaving the euro.

What Greece Means – Krugman / NYT

But what Greek experience actually shows is that while running deficits in good times can get you in trouble — which is indeed the story for Greece, although not for Spain — trying to eliminate deficits once you’re already in trouble is a recipe for depression.

Net, Gross, Or GROSS – TF Market Advisors

We rallied after Lehman filed. Be careful until it becomes more clear where the bodies are buried.

David Kotok | Greece, Tragedy & Poetry – ZH