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| They sold his bonds - but they forgot one thing... |
The eventual Merkozy break-up and France's bleak future in the post-europalyctic world are some rising topics. Bond- and JPY show will probably take a pause, as eurocrisis and QE are making a sort of a comeback. Two good "off-topic" articles today and some nice asset class views.
Any feedback would be much appreciated. I know, give us more of your own views, I don't have time to go through all this material, blah blah. Guess what: all the material I post is selected based on my views - even the regular links - the news recaps by Between The Hedges are the best I've seen. I go through a lot more material every day. I select the ones that I believe are important to understand the current (and the next!) market drivers.
I really, really have to cut down on the material I go through every day. But... that is the price I pay to notice and write about the bond yields breaking higher one day ahead of almost everyone else, or highlighting major articles, like the recent piece on Bernanke, or recognizing when there is a consensus forming. If I want to post something earlier than most, I will have to go through everything and make my own picks. This is not copypaste-job from Abnormal Returns. Respect, and thank you all - MoreLiver
p.s. I just updated the Goldman Sachs Letter - The Collection
p.s. I just updated the Goldman Sachs Letter - The Collection
News – Between The HedgesMarkets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Second Greek bailout gets final approval; German Research Institute: By 2013, bailouts will have added €85bn to Germany’s public debt
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
The French Cul de Sac – Project Syndicate
As France’s presidential election looms, the country is approaching a breaking point. For three decades, under both the right and the left, the country has pursued the same incompatible, if not contradictory, goals. With the sovereign-debt crisis pushing French banks – and thus the French economy – to the wall, something will have to give, and soon.
Merkel and Sarkozy: The end of the affair? – euobserver.com
She needed him to soften the impression that Germany alone is leading Europe. He needed her to give the impression France is still, despite its economic difficulties, a political player.
Is the Risk Free Status of Euro Area Sovereign Debt in Tatters? – PIIE
Portugal: Another Program Is Likely · Ireland: Lingering Concerns Over the Seniority of Creditors · Greece: Fears of Another ‘Default’ · Euro Area: Markets and Political Leaders Misunderstand Each Other
Portugal: Another Program Is Likely · Ireland: Lingering Concerns Over the Seniority of Creditors · Greece: Fears of Another ‘Default’ · Euro Area: Markets and Political Leaders Misunderstand Each Other
SOVx Western Europe - And Then There Were 14... – Macronomics
and next stop, Portugal
EURO CRISIS: CENTRAL BANKING
The Bundesbank and Target2 – the about-face that wasn’t – Economics Intelligence
The bottom line is that the Bundesbank in fact did not change its general perception about the Target2 imbalances and they do not subscribe to the views of the usual Target2 critics. This seems to be a severe misinterpretation of the Bundesbank’s view, probably fostered by some interested parties in the debate.
BuBa: What is the origin and meaning of the Target2 balances? – BUBA (pdf)
Weidmann Defends Bundesbank Against Allegations Of TARGET2-Induced Instability – ZH
Monthly Bulletin Monthly Bulletin, March 2012 – ECB (pdf)
Statistics Pocket Book Statistics Pocket Book, March 2012 – ECB (pdf)
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
In 1865, four European countries decided to form a monetary union. France, Belgium, Italy, and Switzerland formed what is known as the Latin Monetary Union.
About Those Foreign-Law Greek Bonds... – ZH
some nice graphs
just a background filler, if you’re not familiar with the developments.
ASSET CLASS VIEWS
BONDS: Is the Bond Market’s Arab Spring Upon Us? – Global Macro Monitor
BONDS: Is This The Chart That Has Bernanke So Worried? – ZH
the strength of trend of key US data over the past three months has been disappointing in aggregate
BONDS: I see the periphery (sort of) in Treasuries…and convexity – alphaville / FT
Nomura thinks the bear days of the bond markets are due to European risk-off bets unwind. But the convexity…
Nomura thinks the bear days of the bond markets are due to European risk-off bets unwind. But the convexity…
BONDS: Goldman: "Expect The New QE As Soon As April" – ZH
GS: This would expand the Fed's balance sheet, but its impact on the monetary base would likely be "sterilized." We expect this program to be announced in the second quarter, either at the April 24-25 FOMC meeting or the June 19-20 meeting.
GS: This would expand the Fed's balance sheet, but its impact on the monetary base would likely be "sterilized." We expect this program to be announced in the second quarter, either at the April 24-25 FOMC meeting or the June 19-20 meeting.
FX: Fragmentation of Risk-on/Risk-off Matrix – Credit Writedowns
One of the most important developments in the foreign exchange market is the fragmentation of the risk-on/risk-off matrix that was a key feature since the onset of the financial crisis.
FX: King Sadim – Macro Man
Some very unorthodox trade ideas, very nice piece.
ENERGY: The Natural Gas Massacre – Testosterone Pit
PODCASTS
BNP’s Saywell Says Investors ‘Question’ Low Yields – BB (mp3)
Schneider’s Gallo Says High Yields Will Strengthen USD – BB (mp3)
Schneider’s Gallo Says High Yields Will Strengthen USD – BB (mp3)
Credit AG’s Chatwell Says U.S. Yields Will Push Higher – BB (mp3)
Citigroup’s Orszag Sees No Sign of ‘Rampant Inflation’ – BB (mp3)
RBC’s Lignos Says Greenback Will Strengthen – BB (mp3)
Levitt Says Goldman Sachs Should Not Be Singled Out – BB (mp3)
BizDaily: Back to the future? – BBC (mp3)
As oil prices push above a hundred and twenty dollars a barrel, are we going back to the 1970s - is the world is about to experience another oil crisis and what would would it mean for how we all live?
OFF-TOPIC
The bank has defrauded everyone from investors and insurers to homeowners and the unemployed. So why does the government keep bailing it out?
Don Johnson won nearly $6 million playing blackjack in one night, single-handedly decimating the monthly revenue of Atlantic City’s Tropicana casino. Not long before that, he’d taken the Borgata for $5 million and Caesars for $4 million. Here’s how he did it.