Friday, May 31
Thursday, May 30
30th May - Vieraskynä: "Tyhmyri"
Kaipaatko devalvaatiota? Olet siis neuvosto- eikun siis eurovastainen.
30th May - US Open: Abenomics rethought
Also worth noting that Paris resists advice from Brussels. The big ones seemingly have rules of their own.
Wednesday, May 29
29th May - Vieraskynänä "Tyhmyri"
Vieraskynänä "Tyhmyri":
Puolueiden kannatuspohjan ja poliitikkojen uramahdollisuuksien muuttuminen sekä Suomen etujen ajamisen alasajo
Tuesday, May 28
Monday, May 27
Sunday, May 26
26th May - Credit Guest: The week that changed the CDS world
Macronomics is on overdrive - here's his second post of the weekend:
Saturday, May 25
26th May - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Friday, May 24
Thursday, May 23
23rd May - US Close: Japan's Crash
Now that no-one (FED, ECB, SPX, EURUSD, etc.) is leading the way, global markets are taking their cue from the Nikkei. Funny.
22nd May - US Close: Fed disappoints by meeting expectations
The Bernanke’s
pre-written statement to the congress and his later Q&A session gave little
new information. The statement was very dovish, emphasizing that the monetary
policy will remain accommodative and asset purchase amounts can be varied both
up and down. EURUSD and stocks took this positively, but right from the
beginning of his actual Q&A sessions, Bernanke said the dirty word – TAPER.
That was it. EURUSD and the stock market sold off. Later the minutes from the
previous FOMC meeting (May-1) were published, and it was confirmed that some
members would prefer slowing down the asset purchase programs as early as June –
but the majority, Bernanke included, wants to wait for macro situation to
improve. So no news, but for some reason markets were sorely disappointed.
Wednesday, May 22
Tuesday, May 21
Monday, May 20
20th May - US Open
Heavy week in central bank speeches.
Wednesday’s testimony and minutes in US, and Draghi’s speech on Thursday are
the most important ones. Key macro numbers of the week will be the flash PMI’s
on Thursday and German IFO on Friday. The EZ current account data on Wednesday and
consumer confidence on Thursday are also notable.
20th May - EU Open: Heavy week ahead
After two weeks of dullness, we are getting plenty of FED- and ECB-talk. The European PMI-data and German IFO-indices are also of interest. Japan looks like the Abenomics-trades might take a breather. Plenty of Finnish links here.
Sunday, May 19
19th May - Weekender: Linkfest
I have a simple personal policy. (Almost) always tell the truth and
sooner rather than later. By introducing myself as someone who always says what
I think and feel I differentiate myself from polite-clowns. This prepares them
for "surprises", and is a polite warning.
Saturday, May 18
18th May - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
BoJ meeting and FOMC minutes are probably the most important events. EURUSD near important technical levels.
Friday, May 17
16th May - US Close: Tapering & Europe's banks
European banks still
untreated, banking union is far away. US sees no inflation, while the FED
officials are all over the place on the QE tapering. Will they, or will they
not, and what then… One important thing to notice: ISDA is discussing adding
bail-ins to its default criteria. This is important, as it makes any possible
bail-ins in Europe a bit harder to do in practice. Follow that
story. Next week BoJ meeting and FOMC minutes, Bernanke speaks on Saturday.
Thursday, May 16
Wednesday, May 15
15th May - US Close: EZ GDP, Cyprus leak, Greek collateral deal...
A lot of stuff, sorry
about late coverage. First, the IMF board’s confidential memo on Cyprus has been leaked – interesting, might be
slightly scandalous, but nothing the eurocrats couldn’t handle. In Finland, the damage from the court order to release
the secret documents on the Greek
collateral deal are causing minor headaches. While this will surely make
further “integration” (read: participating in bailing out other countries’
banking systems), it will not stop participation, as the parliament has tied
its hands with the ESM – majority rulings force Finland to participate, like it or not. Next step will
be the release of the gruesome Spanish collateral agreements.
15th May - US Open
Due to other commitments you will have to wait my later post for the full link update.
Tuesday, May 14
14th May - US Close: Finland's Greek Collateral
Finland was forced to publish the Greek collateral documents after a court ruling.
14th May - US Open: Pew's European Poll & Abenomics
The Pew's poll on European attitudes toward the EU are out. Makes for interesting reading, especially against the backdrop of further integration. Also, more on Japan's Abenomics.
14th May - EU Open
Last night’s US Close-post was a long one with several
interesting articles. Just a reminder.
13th May - US Close: Fed not in a hurry?
Looks like the unemployment threshold will be updated soon - too many people are dropping out of the labor force, so a drop in unemployment does not mean much. Fed has still more room to do QE, so unless the program faces dire political opposition, the current fears of an early end could be unfounded. Meanwhile, ECB's policy reginalization is not yet flying, and it is uncertain if it ever will.
Monday, May 13
13th May - EU Open: Fed's Hilsenrath scares, data ahead
Most important things
to watch: markets are reacting to Hilsenrath’s comments and interpretation
again shifts to ”QE about to end soon”-camp. I suggest going through today’s
Fed-related links to get a clearer head on the matter. USDJPY volatility
(higher USDJPY = USD demand = bearish for EURUSD) is another topic. The
European ministers sit down today to review the Moneyval report on money laundering
in Cyprus. A ‘pass’ was a requirement for the bailout,
but everybody knows that the report will not find anything bad, and the bailout
will proceed as planned. US retail sales data coming up later, and is very
important, European GDP later this week.
Saturday, May 11
11th May - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
11th May - Credit Guest: What - We Worry?
The latest weekly from MoreLiver's dear friend Macronomics notes that defaults tend to be higher in periods of low inflation (makes sense: no inflation to eat away the debts, usually little or no growth). The yield levels seen in the more riskier credit products are thus probably pricing things wrong: too much emphasis on low inflation risk, far too little on default risk.
Friday, May 10
Thursday, May 9
9th May - US Open
Europpan parlamentin Schulz maaliskuussa:
”Euroopan unionin suurimpia uhkia on, että ihmiset menettävät lopullisesti
luottamuksensa EU:n kykyyn ratkaista ongelmia. Jos nuoret menettävät
luottamuksensa, on EU mielestäni todellisessa vaarassa.”
Mistä hän siis on huolissaan? EU:sta vai ihmisistä?
9th May - EU Open
House Speaker John
Boehner warned that the U.S. government must balance its budget. “We have
spent more than what we have brought into this government for 55 of the last 60
years. There’s no business in America that could survive like this. No household in America that could do this. And this government can’t
do this.”
Think about that for a
second. Do you find the logic appealing?
Wednesday, May 8
Tuesday, May 7
Monday, May 6
6th May - US Open: Venailu
1) liittovaltion kasaan ja talouden
rullaamaan, korkotaso nousee hieman ja euroalueelle virtaa osinkojen ja
bondikorkojen perässä rutkasti rahaa -> euro vahvistuu.
2) Mikäli euro hajoaa, se heikkenee kunnolla.
Nuo tyypit eivät luo mitään järkevää exit/breakup-suunnitelmaa, joten jos
ollaan tilanteessa, missä siellä on selvästi enemmän kuin yksi lähtijä,
euroalueelta lähtee kaikki fyrkat Saksaan tai jenkkeihin. -> euro rommaa
3) Mikäli eivät saa mitään aikaiseksi ->
euro odottaa jompaakumpaa ylläolevista.
Mun fiilikset ovat 50-50 kumpi tapahtuu
lopulta, ykkönen vai kakkonen. Tässä
kolmosvaiheessa voidaan käkkiä vielä vuosia.
6th May - EU Open
I updated the
weekender linkfest on Sunday. Plenty of material, you might want to check it. Going to be dull week, but Tuesday might provide some European headlines (Rehn, Djisselbloem and a conference).
Saturday, May 4
4th May - Credit Guest: Pain & Gain
The Macronomics is here with another weekly, looking at the increased leverage, credit market micro issues and of course the ECB - with the usual market overview first, of course.
4th May - Weekender Linkfest
The Weekender! Europe, economics, markets, regulation. Note the Berkshire weekend! (added links to this on Sunday)
4th May - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Friday, May 3
Thursday, May 2
2nd May - US Open: ECB cuts the rates, press ahead
See the two specials
for the central bank coverage. ECB-post updated after the decisions - but press conference will be very, very interesting.
Olen väittänyt jo pitempään, että
sosialidemokraatit yhdistettynä mikrotalouden perusopeilla varustettuihin
yritysjohtajiin (eivät tajua, että makro on eri juttu), tulee tämmöinen
paska-Europpa, jota pitää sitten yhdessä kehua hienoksi, kun kukaan ei voi hyväksyä,
että on ollut väärässä ja tyhmä alunperin. – MoreLiver 2-May-2013
Wednesday, May 1
1st May - Special: FED Watch
A collection of
articles I've linked to previously, from latest to older. This post will be
updated as the events unfold. Previous Fed
Watch here.
Last update 06:30 2-May
1st May - Special: ECB Watch
A collection of articles I've linked to previously, from latest to older. This post will be updated as the events unfold. Previous ECB Watch here.
Last update 15:00 GMT 3-May
1st May - EU Open
First of May is mostly a European drinking holiday in the middle of the week. Expect low-volume session, but then it's up to the Fed and tomorrow the ECB to stun the sufferers. For those with a lousy morning after last night, may I suggest this drink.
EURUSD up and looking technically strong, but end-of-the-month adjustments, low-volume sessions ahead of holidays and possible misinterpretations of the coming central bank meetings make me a doubter.
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