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Thursday, May 2

2nd May - US Close: ECB Press: Only Threats and Promises

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
Daily Interest Rate Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: S&P Hits New All-Time Highs With Oil's Biggest Spike In Six Months – ZH

Re-Rethinking Euro AusterityWSJ
A new paper from a European Commission economist obliquely questions another tenet of austerity.

What taxpayer bailouts? Euro crisis saves Germany moneyReuters
Throughout Europe's debt crisis, northern European leaders have often said they will not stand for taxpayers having to fork out for other countries' problems, and the notion of "taxpayer-funded bailouts" has taken root.

Employment Situation PreviewCalculated Risk
The employment related data was mostly disappointing in April.  The ADP and ISM manufacturing reports suggest a decrease in hiring (the ISM service report will not be released until after the BLS report), the small business index increased but was still weak, and weekly claims for the reference week were higher in April than in March (although claims for the month were lower). There is always some randomness to the employment report, but my guess is the BLS will report somewhat below the consensus of 153,000 jobs added in April.

Some Thoughts on the US Labor MarketMarc to Market
Economists had generally under-estimated the strength of high frequency data in early Q1 and by the time they adjusted, the US economy began softening. This pattern warns of downside risks to tomorrow's jobs report. Yet, even if the number is in line with expectations, it represents a clear slowing.

Trade Deficit declined in March to $38.8 Billion – Calculated Risk
Enjoy Shrinking Trade Gap. It Won’t Last – WSJ
Initial Claims Lowest Since Jan 2008; Import Plunge Leads To Lower Trade Deficit – ZH

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank (pdf)

The "Price" Of Record High Markets: $10 Trillion In Seven Years ZH
JPM Asset Management CIO Michael Cembalest research note (full pdf)

Monetary stimulus vs financial stability is a false trade-offWorthwhile
There's an idea floating around out there that I fear may be influential. And that idea is horribly wrong. Which makes it dangerous. And I want to try to kill it. But macro is hard. And it's not easy to explain clearly and simply. I can only try.

Austerity is not the only answer to a debt problemFT
Policy makers must use all the tools available, write Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart (short summary here)

Comment on Reinhart and Rogoff's FT articleNot the Treasury View
My letter to the FT responds to Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart's opinion piece (2 May):

The third lever of macroeconomicsFree exchange / The Economist
Economics undergrads learn early on about two levers to manage the macroeconomy: fiscal policy and monetary policy. Events of the last five years make clear that there is a third lever that while poorly understood and difficult to model, it is at times critical: credit policy.

Free Vegas Trips, Cocaine And Hookers: A Peek At Real Banker LifeZH

VM:n virkamies: Velkakriisi ei ole vienyt meiltä senttiäkäänTalSa
Valtiovarainministeriön virkamiehen, finanssineuvos Martti Salmen mukaan Suomi ei ole vielä hävinnyt senttiäkään eurokriisissä. Sen sijaan Suomi on hyötynyt selvästi rahoituskulujen alentuessa, kertoo Reuters.

EKP:n korot linjaan FED:in kanssaSami Miettinen / US Puheenvuoro
- miten setelirahoitus kopioidaan reilusti?

Finanssirosvous OSA 1Jarno Lönnqvist / Piksu