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Thursday, May 9

9th May - US Close: Fed rumors, European nervousness

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
Daily Interest Rate Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: QE-OFF Rumor Sends Market Turmoiling By Whopping 0.37% – ZH

The dramatic adjustment in eurozone trade imbalances Gavyn Davies / FT
At the present rate of progress, it will take at least 5 more years for the competitiveness gap with Germany to be entirely closed for several economies. In the meantime, extraordinarily high rates of unemployment are likely to persist in the south, and with that will come a continuing risk that voters will revolt against the recessions which they are experiencing.

The euro crisis has turned into a fatal disasterTradingFloor
Lars Seier Christensen's keynote speech at #FXDebates event in London.

When ideology meets economic reality (Part III) Open Europe
Opposition to the FTT grows at the heart of Europe

Shifting Balances at the ECBMarc to Market
Draghi indicated that the ECB was looking for ways to support lending to small and medium sized businesses, which, given the economic structure, is particularly important for Spain and Italy.  Draghi seemed to link this to discussions with national government to reanimate the ABS market, which the US did much earlier in the crisis, with reasonable success. 

US to chide Germany on eurozone growth at G7 meetingeuobserver
US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew will repeat calls for Germany to stimulate demand to drag the eurozone out of recession, according to US government sources.

Troika statement on the tenth review mission to IrelandECB

The EU’s Out-Of-Control Intelligence Services (That Don’t Exist) Testosterone Pit
Officially, the EU doesn’t have an intelligence service. It’s dependent on the national intelligence services of its members. Officially. In reality, it is building an intelligence apparatus of six services, populated already by 1,300 specialists, some operating overseas, with vast databases at their fingertips. Much of it beyond any kind of democratic control.

Welcome to Saudi Americaalphaville / FT
Surging oil production in US.

Regulators ‘Fine Tuning’ Bank Capital RulesWSJ
U.S. banking regulators must give serious thought on whether to go further with capital requirements for the biggest banks as they finalize rules over the next two months

NYSE Margin Debt Approaches All-Time HighPragCap

Short Stocks SoarBespoke

Fewer And Fewer Stocks Are Driving This RallyZH

Fed ponders widening its bear hug to let in FMUsalphaville / FT
Federal Reserve’s proposal to allow systemically important FMUs (financial market utilities) to establish accounts with the central bank and thereby get paid interest on their reserves, much like the primary dealers.

Fed’s Plosser: Costs of Bond Buying Outweigh BenefitsWSJ
Fed’s Plosser: Slow Inflation Not Yet a ProblemWSJ
Fed’s Evans: Low Inflation to Persist for YearsWSJ
U.S. inflation, now running about 1.5%, is below the Fed's long-term objective and should stay that way for years, although it's too soon for the central bank to react with a policy shift, the president of the Chicago Fed said.

Australian Dollar, China and Iron Ore - What's behind the Aussie strength?Macronomics

Is Abenomics Going to Put Japan Back on the Map?The Big Picture

Abenomics Scores Victory: Dollar Crosses 100 YenWSJ

China to Switch Sides (of the Trilemma)?Twenty-Cent Paradigms
Allowing the yuan to appreciate would also make exports from other developing countries more competitive, and reduce the pressure on them to keep their currencies undervalued.  That is, the biggest beneficiary of a shift by China might be Mexico.

EM: What has Changed?Marc to Market

The Great Squiggle of central bankingalphaville / FT
Inflation and growth falling, policy getting easier and easier.

The Complete Ira Sohn Conference HighlightsZH

Pääkirjoitus: EMU-puskurien apu tarpeenIltalehti
Suomen on aika tehdä itse kaikki voitava eurokriisin vaimentamiseksi

Eurooppa-päivänä ei juhlita riehakkaasti, koska EU:lta puuttuu suuntaTalSa
Eurooppa-päivää vietettiin eilen Suomessa, tänään muualla EU:ssa. Henkseleiden paukutteluun ei kuitenkaan ole aihetta, koska EU:lta puuttuu suunta. Tästä kertovat eurokriisin ratkaisuyritykset ja asiantuntijoiden ristiriitaiset tulevaisuudenvisiot. Suunnannäyttäjäksi ei liene myöskään hallituksen kesäkuussa julkaistavasta EU-selonteosta.

Punaniska- vai punaporvarihallitus?TE
Kolmen suuren puolueen hallitus ei ole mahdoton ajatus. Se kuitenkin johtaisi ennen näkemättömiin lehmänkauppoihin.

Suomi putoaa päätöspöydistä – Presidentti Niinistö varoittaa setelirahoituksen haitoistaTE
Euro- ja velkakriisi muuttaa maailman valtakuvioita, kun maailman keskuspankit ratkovat kriisiä painamalla lisää rahaa. Tasavallan presidentti Sauli Niinistö varoitti tästä kehityksestä keskiviikkona.

KaupunkilomillaPauli Vahtera / IL