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Thursday, May 23

23rd May - EU Open: Markets extra-nervous

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat – WSJ

3 Numbers To Watch: DE Comp. PMIs, EU Comp. PMIs, US Mfg. PMITradingFloor
PMI data for Germany and the Eurozone is expected to tick higher in today’s flash estimate, and today’s US Manufacturing PMI is projected to slip again to just above the neutral 50 level.

Market Preview: FOMC minutes sound hawkish; PMIs across EU eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open lower Thursday after the FOMC minutes indicated that some policymakers favoured tapering QE as soon as June. With Chinese manufacturing data disappointing investors, PMIs across Europe due later today will be eyed.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Euro-area flash PMI’s, loads of ECB speeches, US manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Bullard speaks

Euroalueen toipuminen viivästyy * Fed ja Kiinan PMI painavat riskimarkkinoita * Bernanken puheet velkakirjaostojen lopettamisesta nostivat korkoja

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)


The banking crisis as a giant carry trade gone
A pernicious aspect of the Eurozone crisis is the ‘doom loop’ linking European banks and governments. This column argues that poor European policy choices in the wake of the 2008 Global Crisis worsened the problem. Rather than being forcefully recapitalising as in the US and UK, many Eurozone banks were left undercapitalised and free to gamble for redemption. In what may be the greatest carry trade ever, they borrowed cheap, first in short-term debt markets and then from the ECB, to invest in high-yield but risky sovereign debt. Substantial bank recapitalisations against sovereign-bond losses is the way forward.


PMI slips back into contraction territory during MayMarkit (pdf)

  HSBC PMI suggests continued near-term softness – Danske Bank (pdf)
  Growth outlook remains subdued – Nordea
  Manufacturing Slips Back Into Contraction – Mish’s
  Flash PMI Sinks to 7 Month Low – PragCap
  Economy Enters Contraction With First Sub-50 PMI Print Since October – ZH

Japanese Bond Market Halted At Open As Bond Selling Purge Goes Global – ZH
Japanese Stocks Plunge 1500 Points, Closes Down 7.3% - Biggest Drop In 26 Months – ZH