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Friday, May 3

3rd May - Special: US Payrolls

Employment Situation SummaryBureau of Labor Statistics

Job growth beats expectations in AprilReuters

Payrolls in U.S. Rise 165,000 as Unemployment Rate DropsBloomberg

Jobs Report: Winners and LosersWSJ
April’s modest payroll improvement and the prior months upward revisions would seem to rule out the Federal Reserve ramping up stimulus measures.

165K New Jobs Added, And Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.5% - dshort

Economy Avoids ‘Spring Swoon’ As Unemployment Rate Falls – TIME

[audio] Jobs Market Look Better Than It Did Few Hours AgoWSJ

Five Takeaways From the Jobs ReportWSJ

Economists React: Last Month ‘Largely a False Alarm’WSJ

Decent job gains and lower unemploymentNordea

April payrolls: +165,000, unemployment down to 7.5 per centalphaville / FT
The numbers for March and April are still less healthy than the winter averages, indicating that a slowdown has still occurred. But even so, they also indicate that the decline may not be as precipitous as other economic indicators have suggested.

April Employment ReportCalculated Risk

US Employment Surprise, but is it Good Enough?Marc to Market

Steady path to disappointmentFree exchange / The Economist
Recent worries over another spring slowdown in hiring look a bit overstated. But it's important to keep things in perspective.

Participation Rate Flat At 1979 LevelsZH

Jobs Breakdown By Age And Gender, Or No Country For Prime-Aged, Male WorkersZH

Where The Jobs Were In AprilZH

April Payrolls ReboundThe Capital Spectator

Macro Digest: Strong jobs reportTradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: The upward revisions and better-than-expected April readings made the US employment report strong - and this should allow the Fed to return to its original flight plan.

Report shows continued slow growth, bought at great costFabius Maximus
In fact the trend of growth remains the real story, with the US economy near stall speed — supported only (like the other developed nations) by massive multi-year fiscal and monetary stimulus. Slow growth bought at great cost. A cost we cannot long continue to pay, borrowing and squandering the money ($ which instead could be rebuilding America). Just like Japan since 1989.

Unemployment falls to 7.5%; job creation solid in AprilWonkblog / WP

The April jobs report, in 8 chartsWonkblog / WP
Real Hourly Wages and Hours Worked: Monthly Updatedshort

Little Sequester Effect Seen in Employment ReportWSJ
Government cutbacks may soon weigh on America’s job market, but so far signs of a drag are few.

April’s Old News, Let’s Talk May JobsWSJ
With the April jobs report already several hours old, it’s time to look ahead to May. Here’s how today’s picture --165,000 net jobs gained and a 7.5% unemployment rate -- hints at what to expect next month.

U.S. Employment Situation – April 2013Global Macro Monitor

Charts: Slow-Motion Jobs RecoveryWSJ
Comparing recoveries in overall, private and public-sector jobs.

Quick Employment Thoughts Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
The employment report does not alter the Fed's forecast, but provides renew confidence in that forecast.  Which could bring a summer tapering of QE back into play.

Employment Report Comments and more GraphsCalculated Risk
I think most of the state and local government layoffs are over.  Of course the Federal government layoffs are ongoing with many more layoffs expected due to the sequestration spending cuts. Overall this was a somewhat weak report given the slack in the economy, but the revisions to payrolls in February and March make the report more solid.

Understanding the painfully slow jobs recoveryFelix Salmon / Reuters
We can — and should, and could, and must — do better than this. But doing so will require a thaw in the Washington gridlock.

Not swooning, not soaringFree exchange / The Economist
There is little reason to expect the economy to accelerate in the near term. Barack Obama desperately wants to scrap the sequester, but unless congressmen heard a groundswell of protest in their districts during this week’s recess, they are unlikely to return to Washington motivated to fix it. The Federal Reserve had expected to start tapering off quantitative easing (QE), under which it buys $85 billion of government bonds a month with newly created money. The March air pocket prompted it to reconsider, and this past week it opened the door to ramping up QE. But the April report does not show the sort of stall that would prompt the Fed to pull the trigger. The year 2013 has so far held less economic drama than 2012, 2011 or  2010, but it has not given any reason to expect the final result to be different.

US payroll income growth: positive, steady, not steep enoughalphaville / FT
Although the April’s income growth fell slightly below trend, the basic path has been steady and clear. Unfortunately this doesn’t approach any reasonable definition of “catch-up growth” or “escape velocity” or whatever — though of course it’s far better than what’s happening throughout Europe.

Jobs +165K, Part-Time Employment +441K; Unemployment Rate 7.5%; Dow Tops 15,000Mish’s

Average Weekly Hours, The Law Of Large Numbers, And An April 618,000 Payroll... Decline?ZH