Here are the ”best”
from my posts of the ending week.
EUROPE
The
view from Germany – mainly macro
The problem arises
because the ECB is unwilling or unable to target 2% inflation. That in theory
allows Germany to attempt to force the EZ as a whole to make the required internal
adjustment without inflation in Germany exceeding 2%. It can do this by a restrictive
fiscal policy. This is exactly what it has done.
Eurozone Morality
Plays
– mainly macro
Evidence does suggest that seeing the competitiveness imbalances in the
Eurozone as simply the result of excess outside Germany is at best only half
the story, and at worst not a very realistic story at all.
Skeptics See Euro
Eroding European Unity – NYT
“This is what I was afraid of, that the euro would be preserved and it
would pervert the venture and destroy the European Union,” he said. “Instead of
the solidarity that was supposed to be embodied, it became every country by
itself.”
Banking union: A good
idea, going nowhere – FT
“Private” banking union in Europe is a good idea that is
going nowhere. Since the euro’s creation, peripheral banks have never been so
crammed with their own sovereigns’ debt – 19 per cent of assets, JPMorgan
reckons – and have never held fewer non-domestic government bonds.
European
Council: The EU’s secret summitry – Presseurop
A lack of openness in Brussels negotiations is often cited as a cause of
the EU’s democratic deficit. But for the “Brussels' ultimate insider”,
historian Peter Ludlow, behind-closed-doors meetings are a cornerstone of EU
leaders’ decision-making.
Euro area heading
back to recession? – Nordea
I cannot help but feeling that the Euro area is just one recession away
from a serious deflation problem.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Next
From The ECB: Here Comes QE, According To BNP – ZH
Three
Things the ECB Should Do Beyond Cutting Rates – WSJ
Should
we be worried about deflation if the ECB is? – TradingFloor
Analysis:
Deflation threat in Europe may prompt investment rethink – Reuters
The threat of deflation in the euro zone could reverse a major
investment trend of 2013, drawing funds out of stocks and into government bonds
and cash.
Four Takeaways From
Interview With ECB’s Praet – WSJ
Monthly Bulletin,
November 2013 – ECB
UNITED STATES
RBS: Fed Monetizes A Record 70% Of All Net Bond
Supply" – ZH
Missing Piece in the Communication Strategy – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
The Fed is clearly
signalling they want to change the policy mix.
They are not clearly signalling why.
Kocherlakota effectively makes clear that the "why" has to do
with the cost/benefit calculus surrounding asset purchases. I would very much like Yellen to explain that
calculus in her Senate hearing, and wish someone would ask the question
directly. Probably
not gonna happen.
Yellen's likely poker
face at nomination hearing may offer clues – TradingFloor
Four Key Points From
Yellen on Tapering – WSJ
Yellen faced the
Senate today. Here’s everything you need to know – WaPo
OTHER
Financial Innovation
Is Depressing – BB
Because it seems to be mostly finding legal ways to deceive people into
paying too much for stuff they don’t need, or failing that finding illegal ways
to do that, or failing that just firing everyone and giving up.
Assets of the
Ayatollah – Reuters Investigates
Reuters investigates Setad, the $95 billion economic empire behind
Iran’s Supreme Leader. Khamenei
controls massive financial empire built on property seizures
FINNISH
Sisäisen devalvaation tilannekuvaa Espanjasta – Tyhmyri
Tiedot
tilanteen kohentumisesta liioiteltuja
Sekä oikeisto- että vasemmistopuolueet
Suomessa käyvät sotaa pienituloisia vastaan – Tyhmyri
Rahan kiertonopeuden muutos Euroalueella – Tyhmyri
Kiertonopeus
on pienenevä ja pienenemistrendi on noin -2,5%
Jan Hurri: Arvostelu kiihtyy: Saksa painaa
heikkoja kyykkyyn – TalSa
Saksa ei ole
talousveturi vaan kasvurohmu, jonka kauppaylijäämä on muilta pois ja keskeinen
syy talousanemiaan muualla. Tämä euron valuvikoja korostava tasapainohäiriö on
ollut eurokriitikoiden tiedossa euron perustamisesta lähtien. Nyt Saksan
arvosteluun yhtyvät yllättäen Yhdysvallat ja IMF.
Jan Hurri: Kumpaa nyt pelkäisi, inflaatiota
vai deflaatiota? – TalSa
Keskuspankit
ovat vuosien ajan pelotelleet kansaa inflaatiopeikon ilkeyksillä. Nyt inflaatio
on miltei kadonnut eikä se ole enää paha peikko vaan turva uutta vitsausta
vastaan. Nyt peikon avulla pitäisi torjua "inflaatiotakin
vaarallisempi" deflaatiomörkö. Tällainen pelottelu perustuu osin
harhaanjohtaviin ja jopa vääriin väitteisiin rahan ja hintojen luonteesta.
Jan Hurri: Tässä kisassa
euro jää helposti jumboksi – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Keskuspankit
käyvät kisaa siitä, kenen valuutta heikkenee eniten. Kaikki haluavat heikon
valuutan, jotta talous lähtisi kasvuun muita nopeampi. Kaikki eivät voi tätä
kisaa voittaa eikä yksi voi kuin hävitä. Euron rakenne ja säännöt tarkoittavat,
että se ei voi olla valuuttojen suurin pudottaja.
KEVA /
Merja Ailus / Keskusta spesiaali – MoreLiver’s
Saksan toimet syyniin – Henri
Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro
Mikään ei koskaan muutu – Juhani
Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro