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Thursday, November 21

21st Nov - Draghi denies neg. depo

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe’s Anti-EuropeansProject Syndicate

Portugal: on the verge of a second bailout?FT
Allowing for remaining bailout funds and existing deposits, this means Portugal could have to raise €14bn in the market next year. Although the May 2014 deadline for issuing these bonds was “tight”, Fitch said it remained “plausible”. If Portugal goes for an EU credit line, it is expected to request a version that includes tough austerity conditions that are similar to its current bailout

Monti acknowledges Merkel’s prudenceThe World / FT

France’s swan song turns the ECB into a doveTradingFloor
France's awful PMI is the latest item in a string of terrible European macro news pushing the European Central Bank to ease. But as the ECB lacks viable tools, it can only make threats. Enter the test balloon.

An ECB Negative Deposit Rate? Don't Hold Your Breath, Says CitiZH

Euro Surges As Mario Draghi Scuttles Negative Rate RumorZH

OECD warns of EZ deflation risks; suggests ECB consider non-conventional measuresSober Look

Economic history: Germany's hyperinflation-phobiaThe Economist
Germany's dangerously patchy recollection of interwar economic history risks making the euro zone crisis worse

ECB debate comes full circle back to QE again - but substantial obstacles remainOpen Europe

ECB cacophonyMacroScope / Reuters

Speech by Mario DraghiECB
at Führungstreffen Wirtschaft “Strategies for more growth” organised by Süddeutsche Zeitung,
Berlin, 21 November 2013.

Euro PMIs point to higher GDP growth in Q4Danske Bank
French private sector economy slips back into contraction – Markit
German Manufacturing PMI hits highest level for almost two-and-a-half years – Markit
EZ PMI signals slowing growth for second successive month in November – Markit

Goldman on minutes: "Relatively Neutral" But "December Taper Possible"ZH
The Tapir Strikes AgainZH
As Fed Searches for Solutions, Its Power WanesWSJ
Did Bill Dudley Just Unveil The Fed's Real Taper "Scapegoat" Plan?ZH

Desperate to TaperTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Clear evidence of the space we have been in for months.  The Fed wants to taper, and is becoming increasingly nervous they will need to pull the trigger on that option before the data allows.  That means that tapering is not data dependent.  That means the policy deck is stacked with at least one wild card.  And that sounds like a recipe for the kind of volatility the Fed is looking to avoid.

The Taper Wolf at the DoorProject Syndicate
Last spring, the mere possibility that the Fed might reduce its purchases of long-term assets – the so-called “taper” – sent market interest rates in the US soaring and currencies in several emerging countries plummeting. Following an unexpected reprieve, investors are again asking what will happen when the Fed follows through.

China: HSBC PMI declines but too early to call peak – Danske Bank
China Flash PMI Drops Most In 6 Months – ZH
Macro Viewpoint: A surprise fall in Chinese PMI – Nordea

The China liberalisation riskFT
The markets may be missing a trick in neglecting the importance of China’s recent turn towards liberalisation. But not necessarily for the reason most people think.

Goldman's Top Ten 2014 Market ThemesZH

European FI Strategy – The heat is onNordea
To QE or not to QE, the question for the Fed, and soon maybe the ECB…EUR: More easing on the cards for the ECB and curves have turned segmented again. Inflation has turned into a hot topic in the Euro zone and 10yr inflation swap levels look oversold SEK: The heat is on as we head into another uncertain Riksbank meeting in December. DKK: Inflation is record low but we expect the tide to turn. NOK: We have changed our Norges Bank call and now expect the central bank to cut twice next year.

Great Graphic: GDP and GDP Per Capita International ComparisonMarc to Market

U.S. factories rebound, but Europe, China falterReuters

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank

Suomen talouden haasteet (se alkuperäisempi versio)Henri Myllyniemi / US

Hallitus käänsi kelkkansa ja listaa sittenkin haitalliset EU-laitHS

EU vie Suomen oikeuteenTE
Patistaa maksamaan muista maista tuleville työttömille korvausta saman tien

Potkujen aikaaJyrki Virolainen

Yllättävä huomio: ”Euroalueesta on tulossa Venetsia”US
Suomen talouden tilanne ei huolestuta skotlantilaisen varainhoitojätti Standard Life Investmentsin päästrategia ja arvostettua ekonomistia Andrew Milligania.