Weekender: Weekly Support (updated)
KEVA
/ Merja Ailus / Keskusta special (updated)
EUROPE
A Schuman compact for
the euro area – Bruegel
Efforts to turn the crisis into a spur for “an ever closer union” have
met with political resistance to the surrender of fiscal sovereignty. If such a
union remains elusive, a perpetual muddling ahead risks generating economic and
political dysfunction. It may be time to recognize and render more effective
the de facto decentralisation in Europe.
European Corporate
Results Crater Thanks To Strong Euro – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB rate cut was
driven by the needs of Germany, not the Eurozone – Europp
/ LSE
Frances Coppola writes that the rate cut is unlikely to offer any help
to the struggling economies in southern Europe. She argues that the
rate cut was framed largely around the interests of Germany, and that the
actions the ECB really needs to undertake are politically impossible.
EUR Inflation
Viewpoint: Market pricing now too low – Nordea
Inflation reached a year-low in October, but March 2014 could be lower *
We expect inflation below 1% until mid-2014 * The strong EUR matters * Summary here.
Printing
money not the way out of crisis: ECB's Weidmann – Reuters
Printing money is not the way out of the euro zone crisis, European
Central Bank policymaker Jens Weidmann said, resisting the possibility raised
by others at the ECB of buying assets to aid a weak recovery.
UNITED STATES
Alan Greenspan: Never
Saw It Coming – Foreign
Affairs
Why the Financial Crisis Took Economists By Surprise
How Yellen Will Shape
the Fed’s QE Exit Strategy – The
Fiscal Times
How Would Fed Deal
With Debt Ceiling Crisis? Look to Minutes for Clues – WSJ
BERNANKE’S
SPEECH
Speech: Communication
and Monetary Policy – FED
Bernanke at the National Economists Club Annual Dinner, Herbert Stein
Memorial Lecture, Washington, D.C. November 19, 2013
About That
Unemployment Threshold.... – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
The issue of the thresholds is a hot topic at the Fed, but there is
hesitancy to pull the trigger on the option of changing the threshold. They are not yet ready to chance signaling a
change in the reaction function. And
given that unemployment remains well above the threshold, there is no rush to
change the threshold as long as the market believes it is not a trigger. This seems to be a message Bernanke is
sending in this speech.
Bernanke: Communication and Monetary Policy – Calculated
Risk
Ben Bernanke's Fed speech—hawkishly dovish – TradingFloor
Bernanke Pushes Back on Idea QE Hurts Main Street – WSJ
Bernanke Plans to Write, Speak After Leaving Fed – WSJ
Bernanke Signals Fed Target Rate to Stay Low Long After QE – BB
FED MINUTES
Minutes of the FOMC October 29-30 – FED
Minutes Reveal Taper Likely In "Coming Months" – ZH
Discussion of how to communicate that rates will be low for a long long
time – Calculated
Risk
Fed Minutes Takeaways:
On Track to End QE, but Stick to Low Rates – WSJ
Taper Timetable Still
Fuzzy After Fed Minutes – WSJ
MACRO NUMBERS
Retail Sales increased 0.4% in October – Calculated
Risk
Retail Sales Revived In October – The
Capital Spectator
Retail sales beat forecasts, point to firming growth – Reuters
U.S. consumer inflation
muted in October – Reuters
ASIA
BOJ Beat: Economists
See Wage Rises as Temporary, Predict More Action – WSJ
Efforts by Japan's government to push
up salaries are unlikely to produce sustained wage increases, potentially
forcing the Bank of Japan to take fresh monetary easing measures next year,
according to economists who follow central bank policy.
BoJ preview: Unlikely
to respond to slower growth in Q3 – Danske
Bank
Macro Viewpoint: The
downside of the weaker JPY – Nordea
Japan posted its biggest
October trade deficit on record, as a revival in exports to the U.S. and China was overwhelmed by
the nation’s soaring costs for imported fuel in the wake of the nuclear
industry’s shutdown.
IMF Sees Aussie 10%
Overvalued as RBA Policy Setting Appropriate – BB
OTHER
Monetary Policy Will
Never Be the Same – iMFdirect
Olivier Blanchard on the implications of the liquidity trap, the
provision of liquidity, and the management of capital flows.
Summers Expects a
Long Winter – Marc
to Market
Marc Chandler: After having been considered to head both the Federal
Reserve and the Bank of Israel earlier this year, Lawrence Summers has been
propelled back into the center of the broader economic dialogue with a speech
at a recent IMF Economic Forum.
The intergalactic
trade frontier – Coppola
Comment
Trade moralists are fundamentally illogical and dangerously plausible.
The idea of exporting your way to recovery is seductive. But it simply is not
possible for all countries to export their way to recovery. Someone, somewhere
has to have a trade deficit. At the moment that someone is principally the US*
- but trade moralists are becoming louder and more vociferous there, too, and
at some point the US is likely to take steps to cut its trade deficit. When
that happens, the global impact is likely to be severe.
FINNISH
Velkakriisien
historian juurta jaksain tuntevat talousprofessorit Carmen Reinhart ja Kenneth
Rogoff väittävät tuoreessa tutkimuksessaan, että europäättäjät ovat virheillään
pahentaneet ja yhä pahentavat velkakriisiä. Kriisiä ei ole pitkittänyt
"eurokriittisten voimien" nousu vaan se, että päättäjät eivät
vieläkään ymmärrä kriisin laatua. (CEPR-artikkeli)
Ykkösaamu: Talouden tasapainottumista ei
näkyvissä – YLE
EU-komissio
ei ole vakuuttunut, että Suomi pääsee irti velkavetoisesta taloudenhoidostaan.
Studiossa Valtiontalouden tarkastusviraston pääjohtaja Tuomas Pöysti. Sitten
läpivalaisuun tapaukset Solidium ja Keva sekä niiden valvonta. Vieraina
eduskunnan tarkastusvaliokunnan puheenjohtaja, vihreiden kansanedustaja Tuija
Brax ja kokoomuksen kansanedustaja Ben Zyskowicz.
Suomen taloudelliset haasteet (1500 merkissä) – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Brysselin kone: EU-tyytymättömyyttä ilmassa – YLE
Mitä
tiedämme kansalaisten mielipiteistä EU:ssa ja EU:sta? Haastateltavana on
toimialajohtaja Juhani Pehkonen TNS Gallupista ja toimittajana Maija Elonheimo
EU-komissio siunasi pelimonopolin – Verkkouutiset
Euroopan
komissio on päättänyt olla ryhtymättä toimenpiteisiin Suomen rahapelimonopolin
laillisuutta koskevassa asiassa.
Pääkirjoitus: EU-keskustelu ottaa uusia
kierroksia – Suomenmaa
Perussuomalaiset etenee eurovaaleissa,
kokoomus ja keskusta kyselyn kärjessä – YLE