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Wednesday, November 20

20th Nov - Mixed data ahead of minutes

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A Schuman compact for the euro area Bruegel
Efforts to turn the crisis into a spur for “an ever closer union” have met with political resistance to the surrender of fiscal sovereignty. If such a union remains elusive, a perpetual muddling ahead risks generating economic and political dysfunction. It may be time to recognize and render more effective the de facto decentralisation in Europe.

European Corporate Results Crater Thanks To Strong EuroZH

ECB rate cut was driven by the needs of Germany, not the EurozoneEuropp / LSE
Frances Coppola writes that the rate cut is unlikely to offer any help to the struggling economies in southern Europe. She argues that the rate cut was framed largely around the interests of Germany, and that the actions the ECB really needs to undertake are politically impossible.

EUR Inflation Viewpoint: Market pricing now too lowNordea
Inflation reached a year-low in October, but March 2014 could be lower * We expect inflation below 1% until mid-2014 * The strong EUR matters * Summary here.

Printing money not the way out of crisis: ECB's WeidmannReuters
Printing money is not the way out of the euro zone crisis, European Central Bank policymaker Jens Weidmann said, resisting the possibility raised by others at the ECB of buying assets to aid a weak recovery.

Alan Greenspan: Never Saw It ComingForeign Affairs
Why the Financial Crisis Took Economists By Surprise

How Yellen Will Shape the Fed’s QE Exit StrategyThe Fiscal Times

How Would Fed Deal With Debt Ceiling Crisis? Look to Minutes for CluesWSJ

Speech: Communication and Monetary PolicyFED
Bernanke at the National Economists Club Annual Dinner, Herbert Stein Memorial Lecture, Washington, D.C. November 19, 2013

About That Unemployment Threshold....Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
The issue of the thresholds is a hot topic at the Fed, but there is hesitancy to pull the trigger on the option of changing the threshold.  They are not yet ready to chance signaling a change in the reaction function.  And given that unemployment remains well above the threshold, there is no rush to change the threshold as long as the market believes it is not a trigger.  This seems to be a message Bernanke is sending in this speech.

Bernanke: Communication and Monetary Policy – Calculated Risk
Ben Bernanke's Fed speech—hawkishly dovish – TradingFloor
Bernanke Pushes Back on Idea QE Hurts Main Street – WSJ
Bernanke Plans to Write, Speak After Leaving Fed – WSJ
Bernanke Signals Fed Target Rate to Stay Low Long After QE – BB


Minutes of the FOMC October 29-30 – FED
Minutes Reveal Taper Likely In "Coming Months" – ZH
Discussion of how to communicate that rates will be low for a long long time – Calculated Risk
Fed Minutes Takeaways: On Track to End QE, but Stick to Low Rates – WSJ
Taper Timetable Still Fuzzy After Fed Minutes – WSJ

Retail Sales increased 0.4% in October – Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Revived In October – The Capital Spectator
Retail sales beat forecasts, point to firming growth – Reuters
Retail Sales in U.S. Increased More Than Forecast in October – BB

Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline for First Time in Six Months – BB
U.S. consumer inflation muted in October – Reuters

BOJ Beat: Economists See Wage Rises as Temporary, Predict More ActionWSJ
Efforts by Japan's government to push up salaries are unlikely to produce sustained wage increases, potentially forcing the Bank of Japan to take fresh monetary easing measures next year, according to economists who follow central bank policy.

BoJ preview: Unlikely to respond to slower growth in Q3Danske Bank

Macro Viewpoint: The downside of the weaker JPYNordea

Japan Trade Deficit Widens as Fossil Fuel Imports SurgeBB
Japan posted its biggest October trade deficit on record, as a revival in exports to the U.S. and China was overwhelmed by the nation’s soaring costs for imported fuel in the wake of the nuclear industry’s shutdown.

IMF Sees Aussie 10% Overvalued as RBA Policy Setting AppropriateBB

Monetary Policy Will Never Be the SameiMFdirect
Olivier Blanchard on the implications of the liquidity trap, the provision of liquidity, and the management of capital flows.

Summers Expects a Long WinterMarc to Market
Marc Chandler: After having been considered to head both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Israel earlier this year, Lawrence Summers has been propelled back into the center of the broader economic dialogue with a speech at a recent IMF Economic Forum.

The intergalactic trade frontierCoppola Comment
Trade moralists are fundamentally illogical and dangerously plausible. The idea of exporting your way to recovery is seductive. But it simply is not possible for all countries to export their way to recovery. Someone, somewhere has to have a trade deficit. At the moment that someone is principally the US* - but trade moralists are becoming louder and more vociferous there, too, and at some point the US is likely to take steps to cut its trade deficit. When that happens, the global impact is likely to be severe.

Jan Hurri: Europäättäjät eivät usko vuosisataisia kriisiläksyjäTalSa
Velkakriisien historian juurta jaksain tuntevat talousprofessorit Carmen Reinhart ja Kenneth Rogoff väittävät tuoreessa tutkimuksessaan, että europäättäjät ovat virheillään pahentaneet ja yhä pahentavat velkakriisiä. Kriisiä ei ole pitkittänyt "eurokriittisten voimien" nousu vaan se, että päättäjät eivät vieläkään ymmärrä kriisin laatua. (CEPR-artikkeli)

Ykkösaamu: Talouden tasapainottumista ei näkyvissäYLE
EU-komissio ei ole vakuuttunut, että Suomi pääsee irti velkavetoisesta taloudenhoidostaan. Studiossa Valtiontalouden tarkastusviraston pääjohtaja Tuomas Pöysti. Sitten läpivalaisuun tapaukset Solidium ja Keva sekä niiden valvonta. Vieraina eduskunnan tarkastusvaliokunnan puheenjohtaja, vihreiden kansanedustaja Tuija Brax ja kokoomuksen kansanedustaja Ben Zyskowicz.

Suomen taloudelliset haasteet (1500 merkissä)Henri Myllyniemi / US

Brysselin kone: EU-tyytymättömyyttä ilmassaYLE
Mitä tiedämme kansalaisten mielipiteistä EU:ssa ja EU:sta? Haastateltavana on toimialajohtaja Juhani Pehkonen TNS Gallupista ja toimittajana Maija Elonheimo

EU-komissio siunasi pelimonopolinVerkkouutiset
Euroopan komissio on päättänyt olla ryhtymättä toimenpiteisiin Suomen rahapelimonopolin laillisuutta koskevassa asiassa.

Pääkirjoitus: EU-keskustelu ottaa uusia kierroksiaSuomenmaa

Perussuomalaiset etenee eurovaaleissa, kokoomus ja keskusta kyselyn kärjessäYLE