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Tuesday, November 5

5th Nov - Commission's fading optimism

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe is a currency saint but an egregious demand sinnerThe Telegraph
This year’s burst of euro strength has brought crisis closer and baked a lot of future damage into the 17-nation bloc

Italy's Mr Euro urges Latin Front, warns Germany won't sell another Mercedes in EuropeThe Telegraph

Manufacturing Europe's growthBruegel

"Just When Consensus Thinks Europe Is Exiting The Crisis"ZH

Falling for GermanyProject Syndicate
German exceptionalism is obvious. Not only does Germany now seem to be running Europe, but the rest of Europe seems to be falling in love with Germany – not least because, in a time of political confusion and economic instability, Germans are the only Europeans who seem to know what they want.

The Eurozone Great DepressionThe Money Illusion
The current depression has similarities to 1930s:

Autumn forecast 2013EC
EU economy: Gradual recovery, external risks

Macro viewpoint: Less internal, more external risk to Europe’s recoveryNordea
There were no major surprises in the forecasts the European Commission published today under the title “Gradual recovery, external risks”. The numbers in general do not differ a lot from our own.

Timing and tools are uncertain, but more ECB easing is likelyNordea
We now expect a 25 bp refi rate cut in December, a clearly dovish tone at this week’s meeting, and liquidity will remain ample

ECB preview: inflation top of the agendaDanske Bank

What to do with the eurozone banking system?FT

How I learned to stop worrying and love (eurozone) deflation?FT

Vítor Constâncio: Banking Union and the European crisisECB

Jörg Asmussen: Banking Union – essential for the ins, desirable for the outs!ECB

Banking structures report ECB
Analyses the main structural developments in the euro area banking sector: the capacity, consolidation and concentration of banks and related changes over time. The report covers the period from 2008 to 2012 and includes indicators for the first half of 2013.

The NPL standardisation factorFT
According to Morgan Stanley’s banking research team, one of the focus areas of the upcoming AQR and banking stress tests is likely to be the definition of a non-performing loan (NPL). These, as FT Alphaville has noted in the past, vary somewhat radically across Europe.

Spanish unemployment climbs, but improvements are noticeable – TradingFloor
UK Services PMI at record-high – Markit

Powell: Eventual Pullback Shouldn’t Hurt Emerging-Market Economies – WSJ

Bullard: December Bond Taper Remains A Possibility – WSJ
Bullard: Need to see evidence inflation moving towards 2% before Taper – Calculated Risk
Bullard: The Tapering Debate: Data and ToolsThe Big Picture

Fed’s Rosengren: Aggressive Policy Needed for Some Time to Come – WSJ
Markets "Taper" On Fed's Rosengren Warnings On QE Costs To Financial Stabillity – ZH

Take-aways from seminar with Anders BorgNordea
Nordea Markets had the pleasure to host Finance Minister Anders Borg on an event in Stockholm today.

Business Cycle Monitor: Global growth close to trend in Q4Danske Bank

Euroopan liittovaltiokehitys vastatuulessaHenri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Mitä EKP tekee deflaatiouhan edessä?Henri Myllyniemi / PS

Koskenkylä: Onko poliittinen unioni tavoitteena realistinen?PS