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Monday, November 18

18th Nov - Testing times

Looks like every major market from EURJPY to SPX is testing some sort of key technical level this week - add in the first November soft data (PMI) and the waiting of further instructions from the three central banks that are running the show, we could be in for a dull week. 

Highlights of the week are the FOMC minutes on Wed and the European Markit PMIs on Thu.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Trade unions in Europe: Dinosaurs on the verge of extinction?
Though trade union density and its trends vary considerably across Western European countries, in most of them the current density has fallen down in comparison to 30 years ago. This column reviews some explanations for the decline of unionisation and discusses some of the challenges unions need to face. Union membership could still be stabilised because it is embedded in social, economic, and political structures of the western European countries.

Europe: lack of reforms or austerity?Fatasmihov
If structural weaknesses matter so much, they should affect growth in the long term (not just during crisis). If one compares the evolution of GDP growth since 1994 among some of these countries, the picture looks very different.

Mats Persson: “National parliaments are the solution to the EU’s democratic deficit”Europp / LSE

Draghi’s Rate Cut Puts ECB Into Holding Pattern Until Next YearBB
While a majority in a Bloomberg survey say the ECB’s most probable next move is a measure such as long-term loans, 77 percent of those see it happening in the first or second quarter of 2014. Just 9 percent see Draghi taking action in December.

Is France the New Italy?BB
The economy -- the second-biggest in the euro area after Germany -- is in deep trouble, and the government looks helpless. Seemingly intractable problems and a lack of effective leadership threaten to turn France into Europe’s new Italy.

What Yellen didn't tell Congress and why it mattersReuters

China: Extensive reform plans do not change short-term growth

Third Plenum cheat sheetFT

China’s Reform Blueprint Broken Down by KeywordWSJ

In the belly of the beastThe Money Illusion
But my overall reaction is that the conservative/Austrian/monetarist/classical liberal/libertarian/RBC schools of thought are too influenced by a combination of massive deficits, massive QE, near-zero interest rates, and simply assume that with all this stimulus we must have high inflation, or else it’s just around the corner.

USD failed the test last week, but may fight back later this weekTradingFloor
The US dollar failed to follow through stronger last week as it neared key resistance in places. But any further weakening after Friday’s rout may be relatively limited this week.

Bitcoin goes vertical in speculative frenzySober Look

Summers on bubbles and secular stagnation foreverFT
Kit Juckes at SocGen notes that big name economists have seized upon the secular stagnation themes referred to by Summers, and are now mutually legitimising the idea that something significant — beyond the banking crisis — is changing the way our economy works. Notably that even bubbles aren’t enough to offset the forces at play.

Jordan Belfort, the Real Wolf of Wall StreetBusinessweek

Steven Cohen: The Gilded Age revisitedReuters

Valtio-opin professori haukkuu hallituksen salakähmäisyyttä EU-asioissaHS
Asiantuntija vertaa Suomen avoimuutta EU-asioiden päätöksenteossa Vatikaaniin

Valtioneuvoston selonteko EU-politiikasta 2013VNK

Kiusaajat voittivat Niklas HerlininHS
Niklas Herlinillä on yli 800 miljoonan euron omaisuus, mutta hän haluaisi elää kuin kuka tahansa. Enää hän ei kuitenkaan voi tehdä niin.

Jungner kirjassa: Poliitikko ahdistuu, kun törmää byrokraattiseen hyytelöönHS

Saksalaisten pakkomielle inflaation suhteen olisi koomista jos se ei olisi niin vaarallista Tyhmyri
Saksa on tyypillisen epäsolidaarinen

Millaisena nähdään Suomen tilanneMikko Aaltonen / US

Suomi ei aja etujaanPekka Tiusanen / US

Hyppää Mario, hyppää!TalSa
On edesvastuutonta olla painamatta rahaa Euroopassa.

Asumisen verotusta korotetaan reippaasti, vaikka veroprosenttiin ei kosketa TE