Thursday, May 30
Kaipaatko devalvaatiota? Olet siis neuvosto- eikun siis eurovastainen.
Also worth noting that Paris resists advice from Brussels. The big ones seemingly have rules of their own.
Wednesday, May 29
Monday, May 27
Sunday, May 26
Macronomics is on overdrive - here's his second post of the weekend:
Saturday, May 25
Thursday, May 23
Now that no-one (FED, ECB, SPX, EURUSD, etc.) is leading the way, global markets are taking their cue from the Nikkei. Funny.
The Bernanke’s pre-written statement to the congress and his later Q&A session gave little new information. The statement was very dovish, emphasizing that the monetary policy will remain accommodative and asset purchase amounts can be varied both up and down. EURUSD and stocks took this positively, but right from the beginning of his actual Q&A sessions, Bernanke said the dirty word – TAPER. That was it. EURUSD and the stock market sold off. Later the minutes from the previous FOMC meeting (May-1) were published, and it was confirmed that some members would prefer slowing down the asset purchase programs as early as June – but the majority, Bernanke included, wants to wait for macro situation to improve. So no news, but for some reason markets were sorely disappointed.
Monday, May 20
Heavy week in central bank speeches. Wednesday’s testimony and minutes in US, and Draghi’s speech on Thursday are the most important ones. Key macro numbers of the week will be the flash PMI’s on Thursday and German IFO on Friday. The EZ current account data on Wednesday and consumer confidence on Thursday are also notable.
After two weeks of dullness, we are getting plenty of FED- and ECB-talk. The European PMI-data and German IFO-indices are also of interest. Japan looks like the Abenomics-trades might take a breather. Plenty of Finnish links here.
Sunday, May 19
I have a simple personal policy. (Almost) always tell the truth and sooner rather than later. By introducing myself as someone who always says what I think and feel I differentiate myself from polite-clowns. This prepares them for "surprises", and is a polite warning.
Saturday, May 18
Friday, May 17
European banks still untreated, banking union is far away. US sees no inflation, while the FED officials are all over the place on the QE tapering. Will they, or will they not, and what then… One important thing to notice: ISDA is discussing adding bail-ins to its default criteria. This is important, as it makes any possible bail-ins in Europe a bit harder to do in practice. Follow that story. Next week BoJ meeting and FOMC minutes, Bernanke speaks on Saturday.
Thursday, May 16
Wednesday, May 15
A lot of stuff, sorry about late coverage. First, the IMF board’s confidential memo on Cyprus has been leaked – interesting, might be slightly scandalous, but nothing the eurocrats couldn’t handle. In Finland, the damage from the court order to release the secret documents on the Greek collateral deal are causing minor headaches. While this will surely make further “integration” (read: participating in bailing out other countries’ banking systems), it will not stop participation, as the parliament has tied its hands with the ESM – majority rulings force Finland to participate, like it or not. Next step will be the release of the gruesome Spanish collateral agreements.
Due to other commitments you will have to wait my later post for the full link update.
Tuesday, May 14
Finland was forced to publish the Greek collateral documents after a court ruling.
The Pew's poll on European attitudes toward the EU are out. Makes for interesting reading, especially against the backdrop of further integration. Also, more on Japan's Abenomics.
Last night’s US Close-post was a long one with several interesting articles. Just a reminder.
Looks like the unemployment threshold will be updated soon - too many people are dropping out of the labor force, so a drop in unemployment does not mean much. Fed has still more room to do QE, so unless the program faces dire political opposition, the current fears of an early end could be unfounded. Meanwhile, ECB's policy reginalization is not yet flying, and it is uncertain if it ever will.
Monday, May 13
Most important things to watch: markets are reacting to Hilsenrath’s comments and interpretation again shifts to ”QE about to end soon”-camp. I suggest going through today’s Fed-related links to get a clearer head on the matter. USDJPY volatility (higher USDJPY = USD demand = bearish for EURUSD) is another topic. The European ministers sit down today to review the Moneyval report on money laundering in Cyprus. A ‘pass’ was a requirement for the bailout, but everybody knows that the report will not find anything bad, and the bailout will proceed as planned. US retail sales data coming up later, and is very important, European GDP later this week.
Saturday, May 11
The latest weekly from MoreLiver's dear friend Macronomics notes that defaults tend to be higher in periods of low inflation (makes sense: no inflation to eat away the debts, usually little or no growth). The yield levels seen in the more riskier credit products are thus probably pricing things wrong: too much emphasis on low inflation risk, far too little on default risk.
Friday, May 10
Thursday, May 9
Europpan parlamentin Schulz maaliskuussa: ”Euroopan unionin suurimpia uhkia on, että ihmiset menettävät lopullisesti luottamuksensa EU:n kykyyn ratkaista ongelmia. Jos nuoret menettävät luottamuksensa, on EU mielestäni todellisessa vaarassa.”
Mistä hän siis on huolissaan? EU:sta vai ihmisistä?
House Speaker John Boehner warned that the U.S. government must balance its budget. “We have spent more than what we have brought into this government for 55 of the last 60 years. There’s no business in America that could survive like this. No household in America that could do this. And this government can’t do this.”
Think about that for a second. Do you find the logic appealing?
Monday, May 6
1) liittovaltion kasaan ja talouden rullaamaan, korkotaso nousee hieman ja euroalueelle virtaa osinkojen ja bondikorkojen perässä rutkasti rahaa -> euro vahvistuu.
2) Mikäli euro hajoaa, se heikkenee kunnolla. Nuo tyypit eivät luo mitään järkevää exit/breakup-suunnitelmaa, joten jos ollaan tilanteessa, missä siellä on selvästi enemmän kuin yksi lähtijä, euroalueelta lähtee kaikki fyrkat Saksaan tai jenkkeihin. -> euro rommaa
3) Mikäli eivät saa mitään aikaiseksi -> euro odottaa jompaakumpaa ylläolevista.
Mun fiilikset ovat 50-50 kumpi tapahtuu lopulta, ykkönen vai kakkonen. Tässä kolmosvaiheessa voidaan käkkiä vielä vuosia.
I updated the weekender linkfest on Sunday. Plenty of material, you might want to check it. Going to be dull week, but Tuesday might provide some European headlines (Rehn, Djisselbloem and a conference).
Saturday, May 4
The Weekender! Europe, economics, markets, regulation. Note the Berkshire weekend! (added links to this on Sunday)
Friday, May 3
Thursday, May 2
See the two specials for the central bank coverage. ECB-post updated after the decisions - but press conference will be very, very interesting.
Olen väittänyt jo pitempään, että sosialidemokraatit yhdistettynä mikrotalouden perusopeilla varustettuihin yritysjohtajiin (eivät tajua, että makro on eri juttu), tulee tämmöinen paska-Europpa, jota pitää sitten yhdessä kehua hienoksi, kun kukaan ei voi hyväksyä, että on ollut väärässä ja tyhmä alunperin. – MoreLiver 2-May-2013
Wednesday, May 1
ECB- and FED specials posted.
First of May is mostly a European drinking holiday in the middle of the week. Expect low-volume session, but then it's up to the Fed and tomorrow the ECB to stun the sufferers. For those with a lousy morning after last night, may I suggest this drink.
EURUSD up and looking technically strong, but end-of-the-month adjustments, low-volume sessions ahead of holidays and possible misinterpretations of the coming central bank meetings make me a doubter.