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Thursday, September 25

25th Sep - Sell-off in Europe

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
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What macroeconomic policies for the Eurozone?
In a recent column, the authors suggested coordinating monetary and fiscal expansions in the Eurozone through a money-financed temporary tax cut. The effectiveness of their proposal, however, has been questioned. In this column, the authors address some of the criticisms. They argue that the counter-cyclical fiscal policies adopted by the US and the UK, together with monetary easing, had a stabilising effect on output. Moral hazard due to the more lax monetary and fiscal policies is avoidable, increasing the credibility of the future spending cuts.

Breaking Bad habits in the EurozoneTradingFloor
Germany's Eurosceptics threaten Eurozone rescue efforts * Debt and unemployment a double whammy for Spain * Former finance minister highlights French deficit

Germany’s Economic Mirage Project Syndicate
Philippe Legrain: For 60 years, successive German governments sought a more European Germany. But now, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration wants to reshape Europe’s economies in Germany’s image. This is politically unwise and economically dangerous.

The German Exception to the Debt ExplosionWSJ
Debt has soared across all major economies since the turn of the century. Except in Germany, according to data from McKinsey Global Institute, from a study called “Debt and Deleveraging” due to be published this winter.

Russia Asset Freeze Threat Sends DAX ReelingZH

BOE’s Shafik Sees Eurozone a Significant Risk to UK RecoveryWSJ
BOE Inching Towards Raising U.K. Interest Rates, Says CarneyWSJ

Nordic Outlook - September 2014Danske Bank
Denmark: economy has disappointed but we remain cautiously optimistic * Sweden: slow growth primarily due to weak growth in the export markets * Norway: oil investments are dragging down growth but activity remains high due to strong domestic demand and higher exports * Finland: the Russian recession and austerity measures are weighing on the Finnish economy

Keynote speech by Mario DraghiECB
ECB's Draghi says Russian downturn to affect European demandReuters
Draghi said the downturn of the Russian economy would affect Europe, although the impact was likely to be limited given the relatively small scope of Europe's trade with Russia.

Euro Shows Draghi Succeeding Where Loans Fall Short BB
Traders are showing confidence in Mario Draghi’s ability to weaken the euro and stave off deflation, even as the initial results of a key part of the European Central Bank president’s plan fell below estimates.

Germany's Schaeuble unhappy at debate on ECB buying ABS, bondsReuters

Former German top judge says ECB could face more legal challengesReuters
The ECB could face more legal challenges over the policy tools it has deployed to shore up confidence and boost growth in the euro zone, Udo di Fabio, a former judge of Germany's Constitutional Court, said on Wednesday.

ECB's test may not be final word on health of Europe's banksReuters
It has been billed as a make or break moment for Europe's banks: the publication of rigorous industry-wide health checks next month after three previous tests failed to spot problem lenders.

Monetary Developments in the euro area Aug 2014 – ECB
Weak euro zone lending data underscores need for ECB stimulus – Reuters
Euro area money supply accelerates in August – TradingFloor

Watch US inflation expectationsSober Look
China's "no stimulus" pledge and falling commodity prices are sending US inflation expectations to multi-year lows.

Fed Has Window to Alter Guidance at Next MeetingWSJ
The Federal Reserve may have little choice but to change its forward guidance on interest rates next month, at least a little.

Asymmetric Monetary RisksKrugman / NYT

New Jobless Claims at 293K, Better Than Expected – dshort
Initial Jobless Claims Rise 12k, Hover Near 14-Year Lows – ZH
Jobless Claims in U.S. Climbed Less Than Forecast Last Week – BB
Durables Drop Follows Record Boeing-Driven Surge; Ex-Transports In Line – ZH
Durable Goods Report: Up 0.7% Excluding Volatile Transportation Orders – dshort
US durable goods orders, initial jobless claims in line – TradingFloor
The "Real" Goods on the Today's Durable Goods Data – dshort
Orders for Capital Goods Point to U.S. Investment Gain – BB
Consumer Comfort in U.S. Falls to Lowest Since Early June – BB

PBoC chief exit – a recurring rumourFT
Rumours that China’s long-serving central bank governor will soon be replaced have been swirling around Beijing for the past couple of weeks as the country’s leaders debate the extent of the current slowdown and the appropriate response.

Say it ain't so, ZhouThe Economist
In the world of rumours, Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank chief, has lost his job multiple times.

Can China save itself from a great slowdown?WaPo
The problem is China needs more and more credit to create less and less growth.

Daily MacroWSJ
Markets have received some rare upbeat news out of the Eurozone, where the ferocious credit squeeze seems to be relenting. With new ECB liquidity measures coming in and Draghi promising more if necessary, all while the euro is weakening, the momentum in monetary conditions could for the first time in years be headed in a more constructive direction to promote badly needed growth. Offsetting that positive news: the direction of monetary policy out of China could be thrown in doubt if Chinese leaders seeking to oust reform-minded governor of the People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, have their way.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Da Costa’s Take: Skills Shortage? Why Low Pay May Still Play a Role * China Considers Replacing Central Bank Head * Fed Should Be ‘Exceptionally Patient’ on Rate Hikes, Evans Says * Fed’s Mester Upbeat on Economy, Wants Fed Policy Clearly Data Driven * Eurozone Credit Squeeze Eases

FX UpdateTradingFloor
EURUSD fell yesterday to close to the big structural support at 1.2750 * GBPUSD drops after failing to maintain above 1.6400 level * USDJPY bounces back into the range as US equity market rallied

FX Board: USD strong but JPY pairs also in focusTradingFloor
The strength of the USD is continuing, with the greenback pulling to fresh highs versus the euro and the Antipodeans. However, we are also focusing on the JPY today, as a number of JPY pairs are threatening a trend change.

Dollar Pushes HigherMarc to Market

EMEA Weekly: Week 40Danske Bank

Lisää siirtolaisia Suomeen?IL
EU:ssa on jälleen vahvasti esillä taakanjaon muuttaminen. Se tietäisi lisää siirtolaisvastuuta Suomelle.

Kelan tutkijat: Maahanmuuton vaikutus huoltosuhteeseen ”vähemmän selvä”PS

"Kokoomus ei enää peittele oikeistolaisuuttaan"Verkkouutiset
Keskustan kansanedustaja Mika Lintilä moittii kokoomuksen veronkevennyslinjaa, jonka kokoomus rahoittaisi vähentämällä julkisia menoja ja kiristämällä kulutusveroja.

Perussuomalaiset vaativat voimakkaita toimia jihadismia vastaanYLE
Perussuomalaisten eduskuntaryhmä on pettynyt hallituksen toimintaan ISIS-järjestön aiheuttaman uhan edessä. Kansanedustajat vaativat hallitusta reagoimaan myös YK:n turvallisuusneuvoston päätöksiin.

Etla: Suomi joutuu EU:n tehostettuun budjettivalvontaanVerkkouutiset
Julkisyhteisöjen rahoitusalijäämä syvenee ja julkinen velkaantuneisuus kasvaa selvästi tänä vuonna, toteaa Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos Etla.

Hallituksen olisi harkittava työnantajamaksujen alentamista kilpailukyvyn parantamiseksiETLA

EK:lta Kasvun manifesti: Tekoja teollisuuden ja työpaikkojen turvaamiseksiEK
1: Verotuksen ja sääntelyn liipaisinsormi saatava vihdoin kuriin * 2: Kannustetaan uusia ideoita sekä osaavia ja innostuneita tekijöitä: investoidaan tutkimukseen, koulutukseen ja kansainvälistymiseen. 3: Otetaan kaikki tehot irti tuotantopanoksista – antaa energian, rahoituksen ja datan virrata. Eikä logistiikkaverkosta ole varaa tinkiä. 4: Uudistetaan työmarkkinat kasvun esteestä sen mahdollistajaksi.

Elinkeinoelämää maalaa kauhukuvaa: Halutaanko Suomi pitää teollisuusmaana?Verkkouutiset

Yritysten liikevaihto -1,2% 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Tehdasteollisuuden jalostusarvo kasvoi vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Vähittäiskaupan pikaennakko: elokuussa -1,6% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kotitalouksien säästämisaste kasvoi 2014/Q2 – Tilastokeskus
Julkisyhteisöjen alijäämä +0,1 miljardia 2014/Q2 – Tilastokeskus