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Friday, September 5

5th Sep - More ECB, weak payrolls, Ukraine

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BOE Rate Message Getting Through, SlowlyWSJ
Greek Pension system nears breaking pointekathimerini
GSEE says social security will start to fail next year as recession and joblessness speed up deterioration

Putin Seen Waging Ukraine Shadow War Until Veto Assured – BB
Russia sanctions: excerpts from draft legislation – FT
Ceasefire deal reached in UkraineReuters
Russia 'abducts' Estonian officer after Obama says US will defend EstoniaVOX

Draghi's magic wand won't spark party in European equitiesTradingFloor
The ECB announced two new purchase programmes in a surprise move yesterday. It has the tune of QE and many investors will likely rush to enter the party in European equities. While alluring, it will not happen. European equities are already fully valued and an explosion in forward multiples will not happen.

Forget structural reforms, only lower euro will boost EuropeTradingFloor

Why The Euro Might Not Depreciate (By Much)WSJ

Why the ECB's ABS purchase programme will workTradingFloor
The European Central Bank's forthcoming ABS purchasing programme may be the tool that could finally tip the scales in euro area credit formation and economic activity. By kick-starting the ABS market, the ECB is essentially helping the euro area banks to circumvent the Basel III constraints on regulatory capital, and credit transmission has a good chance of working again.

Why the ECB's ABS purchase programme will workTradingFloor
ECB papers over rift with rate cuts but holds back on QEThe Telegraph
Central bank launches radical plan to drive down the euro, but won't make any difference, warn analysts

The negative zoneFT

AEP: Draghi can't launch QE without German political assentThe Telegraph
It is surely wishful thinking to suppose that the ECB is ready to launch full-fledged QE at its meeting this week, given its political make-up

Market reaction to the ECB announcementSober Look

I’m going to repeat myself until this gets through. We could be here a whileFT
What Draghi appears to be trying to do is create expectations for a bigger ECB balance sheet, which he will hope weighs on the currency further. He may be successful in pushing the currency lower even though his comments during the Q&A muddled the message, in our opinion.

Draghi Sees Almost $1 Trillion Stimulus as QE Fight WaitsBB
Super Mario: 1up?Bruegel
The stake at this month’s meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council was exceptionally high. Mario Draghi himself raised the bar of expectations, with his intervention at Jackson Hole. That speech marked a significant change in his language, on a number of important dimensions. The risk that the Governing Council would not endorse this shift was not to be underestimated ex ante, with all the implications of betraying expectations at their height. Eventually, Super-Mario delivered.

How the ECB Finally Learned to Be Like the FedWSJ
GDP stable in the euro area and up by 0.2% in the EU28 – Eurostat
EU28 current account surplus €12.0 bn – Eurostat

August Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
Weak report an interesting detour from the consensus theme – TradingFloor
Nonfarm payrolls misses by a mile, but unemployment rate drops – TradingFloor
Koefoed: NFP disappoints with August data surprising markets – TradingFloor
Jobs report disappoints in otherwise strong week of US indicators – FT
Jobs Report Leaves Fed in No Hurry To Alter Views on Slack or Rates – WSJ
Economists React: August’s Slower Job Gains an ‘Isolated Blip’ – WSJ
The August Jobs Report in Six Charts – WSJ
Charting Historical Jobs Recoveries: This Time Is Different – WSJ
Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
Disappointment: Only 142K New Nonfarm Jobs in August – dshort
Investors React: Jobs Report Shows Lower, Longer Still The Playbook – WSJ
142K, Lowest Monthly Print Of 2014 And Below Lowest Forecast – ZH
Labor Participation Rate Drops To Lowest Since 1978 – ZH
Quality Of Jobs Created In August Deteriorates Again – ZH
142,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk
Comments on Employment Report – Calculated Risk
September Employment – Twenty-Cent Paradigms
U.S. job growth brakes to eight-month low, labor force shrinks – Reuters

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Eyes Significant Underutilization of Labor Resources * ECB Surprises With Rate Cuts, Asset Purchase Programs * U.S. Needs Lower Rates, More Inflation: Fed’s Kocherlakota * Mester Says Fed Needs to Clearly Tie Rate Increases to Data * BOE Rate Message Getting Through, Slowly

Daily MacroWSJ
U.S. nonfarm payrolls due to be released later Friday are likely to reinforce the view that the policy paths for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are about to diverge. On Thursday, the ECB cut its already negative deposit rate even further while launching quasi-QE and leaving the door open to all-out QE. The Fed, on the other hand, is about to end its QE program while its policy setters are making ever more hawkish noises. Consistently strong payrolls reports will ramp up expectations of policy tightening in the first half of next year. Elsewhere, the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues to cast a cloud over European market prospects.

FX Board for September 5: US data hiccup, what now?TradingFloor

Macro Watch: US payrolls miss, ECB launches ABSTradingFloor

European stocks: FTSE 100 on verge of massive breakoutTradingFloor

Suomen taloudessa on pisin laskukausi 150 vuoteen: Suomi on lamassaIS

Kolme kysymystä Suomen tulevaisuudesta: Arto ThurlinLibera

Kokoomuksen kasvojen puhdistusVerkkouutiset

Bruttokansantuote +0,2% – Tilastokeskus
Vanhojen omakotitalojen hinnat huhti-kesäk. -2,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kiinteistön ylläpidon kustannukset +2,0% YoY – Tilastokeskus