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EUROPE
BOE Rate
Message Getting Through, Slowly – WSJ
Greek Pension
system nears breaking point – ekathimerini
GSEE says
social security will start to fail next year as recession and joblessness speed
up deterioration
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Russia sanctions: excerpts from draft
legislation – FT
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Draghi's
magic wand won't spark party in European equities – TradingFloor
The ECB
announced two new purchase programmes in a surprise move yesterday. It has the
tune of QE and many investors will likely rush to enter the party in European
equities. While alluring, it will not happen. European equities are already
fully valued and an explosion in forward multiples will not happen.
Why The
Euro Might Not Depreciate (By Much) – WSJ
Why the
ECB's ABS purchase programme will work – TradingFloor
The
European Central Bank's forthcoming ABS purchasing programme may be the tool
that could finally tip the scales in euro area credit formation and economic
activity. By kick-starting the ABS market, the ECB is essentially helping the
euro area banks to circumvent the Basel III constraints on regulatory capital,
and credit transmission has a good chance of working again.
Why the
ECB's ABS purchase programme will work – TradingFloor
ECB
papers over rift with rate cuts but holds back on QE – The
Telegraph
Central
bank launches radical plan to drive down the euro, but won't make any
difference, warn analysts
The
negative zone – FT
AEP:
Draghi can't launch QE without German political assent – The
Telegraph
It is
surely wishful thinking to suppose that the ECB is ready to launch full-fledged
QE at its meeting this week, given its political make-up
Market
reaction to the ECB announcement – Sober
Look
I’m
going to repeat myself until this gets through. We could be here a while – FT
What Draghi
appears to be trying to do is create expectations for a bigger ECB balance
sheet, which he will hope weighs on the currency further. He may be successful
in pushing the currency lower even though his comments during the Q&A
muddled the message, in our opinion.
Draghi
Sees Almost $1 Trillion Stimulus as QE Fight Waits – BB
Super
Mario: 1up? – Bruegel
The stake
at this month’s meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council was exceptionally high.
Mario Draghi himself raised the bar of expectations, with his intervention at Jackson Hole. That speech marked a significant
change in his language, on a number of important dimensions. The risk that the
Governing Council would not endorse this shift was not to be underestimated ex
ante, with all the implications of betraying expectations at their height.
Eventually, Super-Mario delivered.
How the
ECB Finally Learned to Be Like the Fed – WSJ
MACRO NUMBERS
GDP stable
in the euro area and up by 0.2% in the EU28 – Eurostat
EU28
current account surplus €12.0 bn – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
AUGUST EMPLOYMENT REPORT
August Jobs
Report – The Numbers – WSJ
Weak report
an interesting detour from the consensus theme – TradingFloor
Nonfarm
payrolls misses by a mile, but unemployment rate drops – TradingFloor
Koefoed:
NFP disappoints with August data surprising markets – TradingFloor
Jobs report
disappoints in otherwise strong week of US indicators – FT
Jobs Report
Leaves Fed in No Hurry To Alter Views on Slack or Rates – WSJ
Economists
React: August’s Slower Job Gains an ‘Isolated Blip’ – WSJ
The August
Jobs Report in Six Charts – WSJ
Charting
Historical Jobs Recoveries: This Time Is Different – WSJ
Jobs Report:
Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
Disappointment:
Only 142K New Nonfarm Jobs in August – dshort
Investors
React: Jobs Report Shows Lower, Longer Still The Playbook – WSJ
142K,
Lowest Monthly Print Of 2014 And Below Lowest Forecast – ZH
Labor
Participation Rate Drops To Lowest Since 1978 – ZH
Quality Of
Jobs Created In August Deteriorates Again – ZH
142,000 Jobs,
6.1% Unemployment Rate – Calculated
Risk
Comments on
Employment Report – Calculated
Risk
September
Employment – Twenty-Cent
Paradigms
U.S. job growth brakes to eight-month
low, labor force shrinks – Reuters
OTHER
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Fed Eyes Significant Underutilization of Labor Resources * ECB Surprises
With Rate Cuts, Asset Purchase Programs * U.S. Needs Lower Rates, More
Inflation: Fed’s Kocherlakota * Mester Says Fed Needs to Clearly Tie Rate
Increases to Data * BOE Rate Message Getting Through, Slowly
Daily
Macro – WSJ
U.S. nonfarm
payrolls due to be released later Friday are likely to reinforce the view that
the policy paths for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are
about to diverge. On Thursday, the ECB cut its already negative deposit rate
even further while launching quasi-QE and leaving the door open to all-out QE. The
Fed, on the other hand, is about to end its QE program while its policy setters
are making ever more hawkish noises. Consistently strong payrolls reports will
ramp up expectations of policy tightening in the first half of next year. Elsewhere,
the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues to cast a cloud over European market
prospects.
FX Board
for September 5: US data hiccup, what now? – TradingFloor
European
stocks: FTSE 100 on verge of massive breakout – TradingFloor
FINNISH
Suomen taloudessa on pisin laskukausi 150 vuoteen: Suomi
on lamassa – IS
Kolme kysymystä Suomen tulevaisuudesta: Arto Thurlin
– Libera
Kokoomuksen kasvojen puhdistus – Verkkouutiset
Bruttokansantuote +0,2% – Tilastokeskus
Vanhojen omakotitalojen hinnat huhti-kesäk. -2,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kiinteistön ylläpidon kustannukset +2,0% YoY – Tilastokeskus