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Sunday, September 28

28th Sep - W/E: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Charlemagne: Let’s stick togetherThe Economist
The European Union realises it is not designed to deal with the disintegration of members

National parliaments and the European ParliamentEuropp / LSE
The relationship between the two remains contested in the area of economic governance

Europe's rebalancing is not borne by EuropeThe Economist
On the evolution of global current account balances

Europe’s Austerity ZombiesProject Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz: “If the facts don’t fit the theory, change the theory,” goes the old adage. But too often it is easier to keep the theory and change the facts – or so German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other pro-austerity European leaders appear to believe.

The entirely predictable recessionmainly macro
The idea that a large fiscal contraction shortly after a huge financial crisis would lead to a second recession is not the wild imagining of a group of ‘anglo-saxon’ economists, or a particular macroeconomic ‘school of thought’. It is just mainstream macroeconomics.

ECB preview: Buy what, how much and how fast?Nordea

From the ECB policy meeting next Thursday, we expect more details on the ABS and covered bond purchase programmes but no full clarity about size and time horizon. The door will be open to whatever further it takes, which will allow the market to continue to price in further easing. Sovereign QE is not our base case.

A Modest Proposal for Resolving the Eurozone Crisis, Version 4.0Varoufakis
Yanis Varoufakis, Stuart Holland, and James K. Galbraith: Following a sequence of errors and avoidable delays Europe’s leadership remains in denial about the nature of the crisis, and continues to pose the false choice between draconian austerity and a federal Europe. By contrast, we propose immediate solutions, feasible within current European law and treaties.

Why is Europe not ‘coming together’ in response to the euro crisis?Varoufakis
Almost everyone agrees that the Eurozone was a one-legged giant; a monetary union lacking a political ‘leg’ to stabilise it. If so, why has the Euro Crisis (which surely strengthened that view on the back of its ferocity and durability) not strengthen the hand of the federalists?

Whither Europe? The Modest Camp vs the Federalist AusteriansOpen Democracy
James Galbraith & Yanis Varoufakis: Proposals are multiplying – especially as evidence mounts that the crisis is continuing, despite all the official announcements of its end. Why not save Europe today, so that we can consider, in due course, how best to proceed with deeper, more difficult measures later on?

Can Europe escape its crisis without turning into an iron cage?Varoufakis
‘Political union’, ‘more Europe’, calls for a ‘Eurozone economic government’, or for a ‘Euro Chamber’ within the European Parliament, are not preludes to a democratic federal Europe. Instead, they are steps towards a postmodern European feudalism that is, in fact, the very antithesis of a democratic federation…None of these developments is consistent with a sustainable EU. At some point, Europeans will shake this monstrosity off their backs and escape from the iron cage under construction around them. Unfortunately, the resulting European disintegration will come at a horrendous socio-economic cost.

Europe heading for the rocks: a reply to Varoufakis and GalbraithOpen Democracy
Frances Coppola responds to ‘Whither Europe?’: The Euro crisis is over, yes? Not so fast. It has simply moved from acute to chronic.

Further modest suggestions: a reply to Varoufakis and GalbraithOpen Democracy
Simon Wren-Lewis responds to ‘Whither Europe?’: The European Monetary Union needs to be improved, not transformed, and it is this obsession with austerity that needs to change.

German Central Bank Head Weidmann 'The Euro Crisis Is Not Yet Behind Us'Spiegel
An extended period of calm on the bond markets has led many to conclude the euro crisis is over. But German central bank head Jens Weidmann says in an interview that the coast still isn't clear and that there is still great need for reforms.

Germany's Ailing Infrastructure A Nation Slowly CrumblesSpiegel
Germany has long had a reputation for excellent infrastructure. But in recent years, both public and private investment has dwindled dramatically, and officials are increasingly concerned about how to solve the problem. They have good reason to be worried.

Germany’s economy: Three illusionsThe Economist
Germans are wrong to assume they can just do more of the same

Not Even a Dead-Cat BounceWolf Street
Russia Sanctions, Whiff of Reality Sink ‘Economic Expectations’ in Germany

Putin Party Lawmaker Drafts Bill on Foreign-Asset FreezeBB
A member of Russia’s ruling party proposed a law that would allow the seizure of foreign states’ assets in the country after the U.S. and its allies targeted President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle including a childhood friend.

Ukraine in turmoil: A Somalia scenario?The Economist
Neighbouring regions worry about the Donbas becoming a largely ungoverned swathe of land

Russia moves to take control of oil firm from billionaireReuters
Russia moved to wrest control of an oil company from oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov on Friday, seizing his conglomerate Sistema's shares in the firm and deepening investors' fears the Kremlin wants to reclaim prized state assets.

Russia at U.N. accuses U.S., allies of bossing world aroundReuters
Russia used its annual appearance at the U.N. General Assembly on Saturday to accuse the United States and its Western allies of bossing the world around, complaining they were attempting to dictate to everyone "what is good and evil."

Putin’s power politicsFT
The arrest of Vladimir Yevtushenkov has rattled Russia’s oligarchs who thought close connections with the Kremlin would keep them safe

Eastern European risks for Austrian banksForbes
Austrian banks have developed extensive lending networks in Central and Eastern Europe since the fall of the Iron Curtain. Most of them face deteriorating loan books and falling profits due to difficult economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe, exacerbated by the Ukraine crisis. But none is more exposed than Raffeisenbank....

Ukraine: What Putin Has WonThe New York Review of Books

Rosneft Says Exxon Arctic Well Strikes Oil – BB
Exxon’s $900 Billion Arctic Prize at Risk After Ukraine – BB
Russia Discovers Field Which May Be Larger Than Gulf Of MexicoZH

Watch that Rising Dollar; It Might Eventually Give the Fed PauseWSJ
The Fed is still months away from raising rates, but monetary tightening has already modestly begun – courtesy of a stronger dollar and its dampening effect on growth and inflation. The question for investors is: How significant is that effect, and could it force the Fed to slow down its march toward interest rate normalization?

Yen's failure to rally sends powerful messageTradingFloor
BoJ poised to prolong its own QE programme * Wages fail to rise in real terms * Japan's debt problem out of control, says MP

Despite Bold Japan Trade Pledges, U.S. Still Wonders: ‘Where’s the Beef?’WSJ
BOJ Beat: Inflation Could Slip Back Below 1%, But Policy Remains UnchangedWSJ

Northern Lights - Every central bank for itselfNordea
The heat is on the central banks in the Nordics and in particular the Riksbank. With a rate path that looks more like a risk scenario than a main scenario, a downward revision of the path is on the cards. Everything you need on Scandinavian Macro, FX and Fixed Income!

The consensus as contrarianFT
The consensus of fund managers is normally right, in that when most people want to own something it is probably worth owning. Normally being the operative word here, as when markets turn from boom to bust, or vice versa, that consensus becomes very wrong. Hence the common desire to make a reputation as the heroic contrarian who gets it right.

Mixing Momentum and Value: A Winning Combination?Alpha Architect

Why Stock Investors Should Care What Happens in the Junk Bond Marketdshort

Small cap underperformance?Adam Grimes

Mystery Man Who Moves Japanese Markets Made More Than 1 Million TradesBB

Swing trading basics: The bullish reversal strategyTradingFloor

Why do people on Wall Street make so much money?WaPo

Occupational Hazards of Working on Wall StreetView / BB
Michael Lewis asks the big question about the army of Ivy League graduates, with seemingly endless career options, who wind up in finance: What happens next to them?

Supply and Demand: Untangling the Market’s Greatest MysteryPhilosophical Economies

If I was devising a panics and bubbles course… - Long and Variable
(be sure to check the extensive comments, too)

Too much competition, overcapacity, arghh!FT
Earlier this week we highlighted the following chart from Matt King at Citi representing the corporate sector’s seeming resistance to capex:

The rich aren’t just grabbing a bigger slice of the income pie — they’re taking all of itWaPo

Nominal wage inflation has trended down since the late 1970sFT

Where macroeconomics went wrongmainly macro

Re-thinking the lender of last resortBIS

A Radical ResponseNYT
'The Shifts and the Shocks,' by Martin Wolf

Inside the New York Fed: Secret Recordings and a Culture ClashPro Publica
When Carmen Segarra was hired to examine Goldman Sachs for the New York Fed, she bought a small recorder and began taping her meetings. Here is what she found before she was fired.

How Goldman Controls The New York Fed: 47.5 Hours Of "The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes" ExplainZH

New Fed/Goldman Tapes Emerge with Familiar Allegations WSJ

N.Y. Fed Staff Afraid to Speak Up, Secret Review FoundWSJ

The Secret Goldman Sachs TapesView / BB
Secret Goldman Sachs tapes reveal extent US regulators "captured" by Wall Street

Secret Fed Tapes Recorded Goldman’s Capital GameView / BB
What was Goldman up to with Santander that set off the New York Fed supervisors? Collapsing mandatory exchangeables, seems to be the answer.

Why the Fed Is So WimpyHBR
Secret recordings of the New York Fed show regulatory capture on display.

What If Counterfactuals Never Existed?New Republic
Studying history with hypotheticals

The Story Behind Bill Murray And Harold Ramis’ 21 Year RiftUproxx
The Eerie Architecture of East Germany’s Secret PoliceWired

What I learned after 30,000 posts . . .The Big Picture

New Harvard Research Reveals A Fun Way To Be More SuccessfulBakadesuyo

Will Self: The awful cult of the talentless hipster has taken overNew Statesman
Our generation is to blame – we’re the ones who took the avant-garde and turned it into a successful rearguard action by the flying columns of capitalism’s blitzkrieg.

At what point does a video game become a grindingly menial job?New Statesman
When the balance of challenge and reward in a game gets out of sync, players can end up doing length, tedious tasks in exchange for a “win”. Do we even know what fun is anymore?

References, pleaseThe New York Review of Books
In the age of the Internet, do we really need footnotes to reference quotations we have made in the text?

Signaling Post-Snowden Era, New iPhone Locks Out NSANYT
The new iPhone creates a unique code that scrambles information, disrupting the investigative abilities of American law enforcement and intelligence agencies.

Four ways you can see the multiverse – New Scientist
Hugh Everett: The man who gave us the multiverse – New Scientist
Life in the multiverse means endless possibilities – New Scientist
Cosmic inflation is dead, long live cosmic inflation! – New Scientist

Missä vika – Ruotsin talous kasvaa mutta Suomen ei Jan Hurri / TalSa
Suomi sukelsi syvemmälle ja toipuu hitaammin kuin Ruotsi, vaikka talouksissa on enemmän yhteisiä piirteitä kuin eroja. Yksi selitys kasvuerolle löytynee valuutoista: Ruotsilla on oma valuutta, Suomella ei. Kruunu pehmensi Ruotsin kriisiä mutta euro pahensi Suomen kriisiä. Yritysjohdolle euro on silti vaikea puheenaihe.

EU:n talous ja keskinäisriippuvuuden aikaBrysselin kone / YLE
Suomen Pankin johtokunnan neuvonantaja Antti Suvanto keskustelee mm. siitä miten hyvin euro toimii, mitä keinoja on olemassa euroalueen talouden nykyisten ongelmien hoitamiseksi. Lisäksi hän puhuu siitä, uhkaako EU aluetta deflaatio ja jos uhkaa, niin miten vakava ongelma se on.

Suomeen tulee uusi virasto: Rahoitusvakausvirasto pelastaa pankit pinteestäTE

Tutkija arvostelee poliitikkoja: "Koko Suomea ei voida pitää asuttuna"YLE

Stasin luomusAarno Laitineni / IL

EKP:n tehokasta toimintaa tuskin tuleeTyhmyri
Saksan sisäpolitiikka estää EKP:n toimet

Professori: Eläkeratkaisu on askel oikeaan suuntaanTalSa
Uusi eläkeratkaisu ei ole optimaalinen tai täydellinen, ja sen vaikutuksista tarvitaan perusteellinen selvitys. Malli on silti oikeansuuntainen, arvioi kansantaloustieteen professori Roope Uusitalo.

"Suuret ikäluokat järjestivät itselleen väliaikaisesti alemman eläkeiän ja paremmat karttumat"Verkkouutiset

Näkökulma: Mitä eläkkeistä sovittiin?IL
Sopimuksen peruslinja on, että eläkkeitä heikennetään kautta linjan, kirjoittaa eläkeasiantuntija Olli Pusa.

YK määräsi ulkomaisiin sotiin lähtevät taistelijat laittomiksi – YLE
Viranomaiset voimattomia Syyriaan sota-alueelle vietyjen suomalaislasten palauttamisessa – YLE
Syyrian taistelualueelle matkustaneet ovat alkaneet palata Suomeen – YLE
Professori: Suomi tiukentaa terrorismilakeja etunojassa – YLE
Näin poliisin erikoisyksikkö puuttuu kiihtyvään ilmiöön – IL