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Monday, September 8

8th Sep - Scotland poll, Ukraine, ECB

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Searching for growth in Europe, clarity in ChinaReuters
The euro zone's struggle to avoid another recession will take center stage in the coming week in the absence of major U.S. data, as investors mull whether the ECB's new asset-buying plan is a prelude to even more radical steps.

IMF's Lagarde urges Germany to spend more, aid recoveryReuters
Lagarde urged Germany to increase investments to help spur the euro zone's flagging economic recovery, adding that the bloc as a whole needed to make more structural reforms.

Anti-austerity advocates: Attack Germany at your perilTradingFloor
The Eurozone and opponents of fiscal discipline should stop striking out at Germany. Perhaps the greatest danger to the Eurozone is not the periphery, but the core just saying enough is enough.

Facing Reality in the EurozoneProject Syndicate
The implications of ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments at the annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers contained a more startling implication than many initially recognized. Escaping from recession and avoiding a eurozone breakup will require ECB-financed fiscal stimulus.

Daily Shot: Och aye the yes?TradingFloor
The last-minute push in support for Scottish independence from Britain is putting pressure on the GBP. Are there any lessons to be learned from Quebec's independence impact on the Canadian dollar in the 1990s?

FX Update: Pound pummeled on fresh Scottish pollsTradingFloor
A new prominent poll suggests the Yes-to-independence vote is taking the lead in Scotland, but we shouldn't lose our heads about the implications just yet. Elsewhere, USDJPY is in focus this week as prime minster Shinzo Abe's cabinet scramble could signal policy changes.

Hardy: Trading strategies amid Scottish independence uncertaintyTradingFloor
Sterling has dropped to ten month lows after the latest polls suggested the gap between Yes and No votes in the Scottish Independent Referendum has narrowed. The result is now too close to call for many observers. An independent Scotland raises so many economic questions at this stage that the uncertainty is likely to continue to affect the markets until polling day and beyond.

Independent Scotland's economy 'would crash if it tried to use sterling'The Guardian
Economist Ronald MacDonald says SNP's plans to use the pound after a yes vote are fundamentally flawed

Scotland split jitters send sterling to 10-month low – Reuters
U.K. Races to Grant Powers to Scots to Blunt IndependenceBB
Scottish-Law Bonds: A Thorny Question – WSJ
Scotland Vote: The Silver Lining in Sterling’s Tumble – WSJ
Sweating ScotlandMacro Man
Scottish Independence Referendum: The Complete Summary – ZH
Can Scotland Really Be as Rich as Norway? – WSJ
Scotland’s transition to EU membership smooth and straightforward? – Europp / LSE
Currency Issues and Options for an Independent ScotlandRonald MacDonald
British markets spooked by poll showing Scots may vote to break up UKReuters
Pound Tumbles on Scots Poll as BOE Bets Pared, FTSE Drops – BB

EU Need for Russian Gas Via Ukraine Wanes as Stores Fill – BB
Here Is Why Europe Just Launched The "Nuclear Option" Against RussiaZH
EU delays enforcing new Russia sanctions – Reuters
Russia hints at flight ban in response to new sanctions – Reuters

EU positive about Ireland's early pay back of IMF loans: EU officialReuters
European Union financial officials and institutions support Ireland's request to be allowed to pay back early the International Monetary Fund's part of its bailout, a senior EU official said on Monday.

Ireland: how fast can gross debt go below 100% of GDP?Danske Bank

Italian business pushes Renzi for actionReuters
The annual meeting of Italy's business elite on the shores of Lake Como was - again - dominated by calls for reforms and gloomy discussion of an economic crisis now well into its sixth year.

Italian Banks Won’t Face Major Issues in ECB Review, Padoan SaysBB

The ECB talks tough but acts timidlyTradingFloor
There’s no doubt the ECB wants to see a lower EURUSD, but to achieve this, it will probably have to use “additional unconventional instruments”, which means full-blown quantitative easing. ECB President Mario Draghi has alluded to this, and it is still up his sleeve. However Germany is not yet prepared to condone QE.

ECB: “Whatever it takes” still standsNordea
Now that the dust has settled after the ECB’s second significant easing package within just three months, we come back with thoughts on how to read the ECB and what to expect from the ABS and covered bond purchases. A volume of purchases of EUR 700 to 1000bn can hardly be reached in these asset classes.

Markets expect negative overnight rates in the Eurozone through mid 2016 as reserves become a "hot potato"Sober Look

How It Works: The ECB QE ProgramBespoke
Whether this program will be effective is anyone’s guess for now.  Much will depend on how much the ECB is willing to buy.  ABS will probably be more stimulative than covered bonds.

Merkel ally lashes out at Draghi over ECB plans to buy 'junk' paperReuters
An ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized the European Central Bank and its president Mario Draghi in a rare public attack, telling Bild newspaper the ECB's new schemes to bolster lending and buy asset-backed securities would scare Germans.

Record German trade surplus points to strong third quarter – Reuters
Germany’s Trade Surplus and Exports Reach All-Time Highs – BB
Sentix euro zone index slides in September despite ECB measures – Reuters
Spain house prices rise for first time in six years: INE – Reuters

Keep your frenemies list short and your enemies list shorterReuters
There are plenty of genuine perils for the United States to consider without canvassing the planet for additional ones.

Forward Guidance Heading for a ChangeTim Duy’s Fed Watch
The US economy is moving to a point in the cycle in which monetary policymakers have less certainty about the path of rates.  Perhaps they need to be pulled forward, perhaps pushed back.

Chinese leader’s reforms are bad news for Hong KongReuters
Xi is opening up the economy because, above all else, he wants to ensure the long-term survival and stability of the Communist Party leadership. He thinks economic reforms are a good bet despite the risks they will usher in.

China's August imports fall unexpectedly but exports buoyant – Reuters
China Posts Record Surplus as Exports-Imports Diverge – BB
Japan second-quarter GDP shrinks 7.1 percent, adds to doubt over inflation goal – Reuters
Weak Yen Is Helping Japan’s Recovery, Abe Adviser Says – BB
Japan service sector sentiment worsens in August: government survey – Reuters 

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: A Mixed ECB Verdict in Germany Amid Divergent Economic Signals * Jobs Report Leaves Fed in No Hurry To Alter Views on Slack or Rates * August’s Job Gain Suggests A Tougher Path To Full Employment * Japan GDP Shrinks at Fastest Pace in More Than Five Years * U.K. Pound Slumps After Scottish Independence Poll.

Daily MacroWSJ
All eyes are on the impending vote for Scottish independence. The latest poll was a shock, suggesting for the first time that a “yes” vote–in favor of splitting off from the union–might be a possibility. With banking and asset management making up a large portion of the Scottish economy, people are starting to wonder what this might mean for global financial stability. Elsewhere, data show the Japanese economy is in an even worse state than we thought.

PoundedMarc to Market
Sterling has been pounded by the YouGov poll that showed that those favoring Scottish independence  have gained a slim majority for the first time. 

The Week Ahead: Calm before the StormMarc to Market
The economic news stream in the week ahead is light.  This will allow investors to contemplate last week's ECB announcements and adjust positions ahead of the critical events of the following week. These include the FOMC meeting, the launch of the TLTROs and the Scottish referendum. 

The Macro Week Ahead: Equities bulls gathering momentumTradingFloor
September 18 is likely to be a big day for forex traders - there's a referendum, a meeting of the Swiss National Bank and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Plenty to be looking out for

FX: G11?Nordea
GBP to weaken further, with Scottish indepdence - yet another risk; Draghi's soft currency guidance keeps EUR under pressure, but now that EUR rates are at lows, the EURUSD will increasingly depend on the USD side...

The Macro Week Ahead: FX volatility is backTradingFloor
FX volatility is back. September 18 is the next key anchor date with the culmination of meetings from the SNB, FOMC & the Scottish referendum. Also George Soros' Invest Now, Investigate Later?

Strategy: On the RadarNordea
ECB & FX: “Whatever it takes” still alive and kicking * USD rates: Who cares about the business cycle? * ECB & USD/SEK rates: Flattening pressure mounting on the USD curve? * SEK macro: Let’s hope the heat wave only killed growth in July * SEK linkers: The 200bps inflation trade * SEK bonds: SGB 1052 vs 1047 steepening pressure into the futures roll

Suomi ylittämässä EU:n alijäämäsäännönTalSa
Suomi rikkoo EU:n alijäämäsääntöäHS

Lyhyt opas venäläismedian tulkintaanAnton Nikolenko / US

Nobelisti: Skotlannilla sama ongelma kuin Suomella – "pelätkää"TalSa
Skotlanti ottaa suuren riskin, mikäli se päättää tavoitella itsenäisyyttä tulevassa kansanäänestyksessä. Näin arvioi taloustieteen Nobel-palkinnon saanut amerikkalainen kansantaloustieteilijä Paul Krugman.

"Seuraavan kahden vuoden aikana Suomen taloudelle käy todella huonosti"HS
Lepomäen mielestä ansiosidonnaisen työttömyyspäivärahan kestoa tulisi supistaa. Hänen mukaansa se ehkäisisi pitkäaikaistyöttömyyttä ja syrjäytymistä.

Pitäisikö eläkeikää laskea vai nostaa?Akateeminen taloublogi

Ruotsalainen peruskoulu kriisissä - yli 13 prosenttia ei läpäiseVerkkouutiset

Oi äiti Venäjä, miksi pakotat meidät Natoon?Professorin ajatuksia

Pelko vaanii taustalla: Päättävätkö suurvaltiot taas Virosta selän takana?MTV
Kun keskustelee virolaisten kanssa Viron ja Suomen Venäjä-suhteesta, vuosi 1939 nousee jatkuvasti esille. Tuolloin Suomi vastusti jääräpäisesti Neuvostoliiton vaatimuksia alueluovutuksista ja päätyi sotaan suurvallan kanssa. Viro yritti olla provosoimatta suurvaltaa, antoi sille luvan perustaa tukikohtia alueelleen ja tuli miehitetyksi.