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Monday, September 29

29th Sep - Long week ahead

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The Sick Man Of Europe Is Europe New Geography

Europe’s Corporate Borrowing Set to Hit Pre-Crisis PeakWSJ

Russian Stocks Enter Bear Market As Ruble Hits Record LowZH

EU's Juncker team faces make-or-break hearingsReuters
From Monday, members of a European Parliament elected on a wave of anti-Brussels protest will subject nominees for posts on executive European Commission to hearings that could wreck the line-up and a complex new structure proposed by its incoming president, Jean-Claude Juncker.

Europe schism haunts British PM Cameron as pre-election battle drums begin Reuters
The British Conservative party's schism over Europe marred Prime Minister David Cameron's last major party conference before a 2015 election

Solving the mystery of Donald TuskFT
The inhabitants of the Brussels beltway may be underwhelmed by the new council president. But the German government is delighted. Mr Tusk may not speak English or French very well – but he does speak good German.

Revealed - the Troika threats to bankrupt IrelandThe Independent
Honohan: ECB officials agreed to threaten Ireland with bankruptcy if the government tried to burn bondholders

For €300 Billion Investment Fund, EU’s Katainen Looks to Old Ideas WSJ

Catalonia president signs independence referendum decreeBBC
Spanish PM: Catalan vote undemocraticZH

Political reticence blunts ECB’s asset purchase planFT
ECB will this week unveil details of its plan to save the eurozone from economic stagnation by buying hundreds of billions of euros-worth of private-sector assets. But one of the most crucial questions surrounding the purchases of bundles of loans, known as asset-backed securities, looks set to remain unanswered for some time.

Draghi Devaluing Euro Cheers ECB as Inflation Seen FadingBB
Mario Draghi’s strategy for reviving the euro area looks like devaluation.

Could governments be blackmailed to commit to ECB's ABS programme?TradingFloor
The European Central Bank is expected to announce details of its plans to purchase asset-backed securities. Without government guarantees for them, the ECB will be unable to meet its policy goals. If the ECB's plans would require such guarantees, the ECB would be effectively blackmailing the governments: "give the guarantees, or there will be government bond purchases, like it or not".

Guide to Banking Supervision Sep 2014ECB

German Inflation Beats Estimates as ECB Adds Euro-Area Stimulus – BB
Steady German inflation could prop up euro zone rate – Reuters
Euro-Area Economic Confidence Falls in Sign ECB Plan Takes Time – BB
Euro zone sentiment worsens in September, inflation expectations fall – Reuters

The new normal of monetary policyBruegel
Since 2008, the asset purchases made under QE have increased drastically the aggregate level of bank reserves, thereby weakening the control of the Fed's federal funds rate. On Wednesday 17 September 2014, the Federal Reserve announced a revised plan for the mechanics of how it will raise interest rates from near zero despite large excess reserves.

Evans Says Future Fed Rate Hike Should Be Slow, GradualWSJ

Personal Spending Beats, Rises Most Since March – ZH
Consumer Spending in U.S. Climbed in August on Income Gain – BB
Personal Income +.3% in August, Spending +0.5% - Calculated Risk

U.S. consumer spending accelerates in August – Reuters
Key Inflation Reading Slips Further Below Fed’s 2% Target – WSJ
PCE Price Index: Headline and Core Little Changed, Remain Below Target – dshort
U.S. pending home sales fall more than expected in August – Reuters
Pending Home Sales Drop In August (After Surge In New Home Sales) – ZH
Pending Home Sales Index -1.0% in August, -2.2% YoY – Calculated Risk

China says opposes 'illegal behavior' in Hong KongReuters
Hong Kong resorts to tear gas to break up democracy protesters after warnings – Reuters
China: Demonstrations in Hong Kong will most likely stay local – Danske Bank

Beijing needs to play its hand better in Hong KongTradingFloor
Thousands of Hong Kong residents join protests Sunday * Protests at Beijing's plan to vet candidates for 2017 presidential elections * Beijing failure to fully understand situation has helped fuel crisis

Changing central bank drivers won't change China's courseTradingFloor
Speculation that China’s central bank governor is stepping down is unsettling markets but fears of an abrupt change in policy or some power struggle about to implode are way off the mark. The problems of the economy – and their solutions – have little to do with who heads the People’s Bank.

FX: EUR or USD, 'safer haven'?Nordea
With major event risks this week - ECB starting QE, and US payrolls on Friday - the stock markets, volatility, could make a major move. How would the EURUSD react to "risk off"?

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: Base Effects to Give ECB Some Breathing Room * Secret Review Found New York Fed Staff Afraid to Speak Up * HKMA Activates Contingency Plan as Hong Kong Banks Hit by Protests * Mario Draghi’s Next Big Show * New Zealand Dollar Hits 15-Month Low on RBNZ Intervention

Daily MacroWSJ
The challenges of governing in a weak global economy were on display Monday. Most strikingly, the protests that have gripped Hong Kong speak to the difficulty that China has in trying to sustain the Communist Party’s centralized control over power and the economy while also seeking to take a leadership role in the global economy.

FI Eye-Opener: Another big week aheadNordea
US bonds feel pressure Friday afternoon. Quarter-end to support bonds for now. EUR/USD continues to sink. Catalan independence referendum still far from certain. Fitch affirms Finnish rating and the stable outlook. Big week ahead: ECB, HICP, payrolls… German inflation and US personal spending on the agenda today. Italy setting another rather busy issuance week in motion.

FX Update: USD rally to pause for breath?TradingFloor
We’ve got a lot of data out later this week and the USD rally may cool a bit, at least until we get to the other side of the key event risks, including the ECB meeting on Thursday and Friday’s US employment report.

The Macro Week Ahead: How strong is too strong for USD?TradingFloor
The rise of the US dollar looks inexorable at the moment, but overall, I advise caution and a gravitation towards the downside to market-defensive positioning this week.

Event Risks in the Week AheadMarc to Market

What Matters for Global Markets in the Week AheadWSJ

Viikkokatsaus: Inflaatio hidastuu – innostuuko EKP? Nordea
Tulevaa USA: Työmarkkinat palautuvat * EKP:n osto-ohjelma kiinnostaa * Euroalue: Inflaatio hidastuu lisää * Suomi: Velkaluvut Q2:lta * Mennyttä Ostopäälliköt: Kasvu jatkuu * Euroalue: Kuluttajien luottamus laski * Saksa: IFO -indeksi oli pettymys * Suomi: Kotimainen kysyntä heikkoa

Strategy: On the radarNordea
USA: will a stronger USD kill the inflation forecasts for 2015? * SEK rates: twisted relations, a trade for the drawer * SEK covered: richness supported, but US High Yield scare can create a wobble… * SEK linkers: a proxy for SEK 5yr5yr fwd BEI tightener * Basis swaps: opportunity to sell front-end EURUSD basis * FX: the danger of looking for a rebound in EURUSD * Central banks: policy rate paths, we´re on the road to nowhere… * Swedish election update: Löfven will do whatever it takes

Työttömyysdevalvaatio – Suomi tienhaarassa Anders Ekholm / Libera
"Jos näin jatketaan, luvassa on massatyöttömyys" – TalSa

Hakaniemessä luuraa veroparatiisi TE
Hakaniemen saamat maksut kotitalouksilta ovat täysimääräisesti verovähennyskelpoisia – eikä siinä vielä kaikki. Ammattiliitot eivät yleishyödyllisinä yhteisöinä maksa mitään veroja.

Talvi on tulossa – siinä ei paljon AAA auta TalSa
Luottoluokitus ei ole Suomen huolista suurin tällä hetkellä, arvioi EK:n johtaja Jyri Häkämies. Talouden kääntäminen nousu-uralle on lähiajan haaste.

Onko euroalueen talouden pahin ongelma kysynnän puute? Suomen Pankki

Yritysten luottamusindikaattorit laskivat syyskuussa – EK
Musta pilvi leijuu nyt myös palveluyritysten yllä – TalSa
Kuluttajien luottamus hieman miinukselle syyskuussa – Tilastokeskus
Kuluttajaluottamus vajosi jo miinukselle – TalSa
Suomen elinkeinoelämän kaikki luottamusindikaattorit miinuksella – Verkkouutiset

Osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat hieman elokuussa – Tilastokeskus
Hinnat laskusuunnassa– paitsi pk-seudulla – YLE

Keskusta karkasi kokoomukselta, kannatus nyt 23,3 prosenttiaYLE
Kokoomuksen kannatus on pudonnut kesäkuun lukemiin, joten uuden puoluejohtajan ja pääministerin Alexander Stubbin tuoma ensihuuma näyttäisi sulaneen.

Perussuomalaisten aika äijäpuolueena ohiYLE
Keskusta on nyt suosituin puolue sekä nais- että miesäänestäjien joukossa. Yle Uutisten syyskuun kannatusmittauksessa kokoomus menetti kärkipaikkansa naisissa ja perussuomalaiset miehissä. Kokoomukselta on kadonnut paljon pieni- ja keskituloisia kannattajia.

Vanhas-Matti palaa politiikkaanVirolainen

Näin Antti Rinne keskittää valtaansa IS

Maahanmuuttajien sosiaaliturvan käyttö vuonna 2011HELDA
Tutkimuksessa kyseenalaistetaan maahanmuuton väitetty positiivinen vaikutus taloudelliselle huoltosuhteelle.

Hollanti vei passit ja sosiaalituet kymmeniltä jihadisteiksi epäillyiltäVerkkouutiset