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EUROPE
Russian
Stocks Enter Bear Market As Ruble Hits Record Low – ZH
POLITICS
EU's
Juncker team faces make-or-break hearings – Reuters
From
Monday, members of a European Parliament elected on a wave of anti-Brussels
protest will subject nominees for posts on executive European Commission to
hearings that could wreck the line-up and a complex new structure proposed by
its incoming president, Jean-Claude Juncker.
Europe
schism haunts British PM Cameron as pre-election battle drums begin – Reuters
The British
Conservative party's schism over Europe marred Prime Minister David Cameron's
last major party conference before a 2015 election
Solving
the mystery of Donald Tusk – FT
The
inhabitants of the Brussels beltway may be underwhelmed by the new council
president. But the German government is delighted. Mr Tusk may not speak
English or French very well – but he does speak good German.
Honohan:
ECB officials agreed to threaten Ireland with bankruptcy if the government tried
to burn bondholders
For €300
Billion Investment Fund, EU’s Katainen Looks to Old Ideas – WSJ
Spanish
PM: Catalan vote undemocratic – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Political
reticence blunts ECB’s asset purchase plan – FT
ECB will
this week unveil details of its plan to save the eurozone from economic
stagnation by buying hundreds of billions of euros-worth of private-sector
assets. But one of the most crucial questions surrounding the purchases of
bundles of loans, known as asset-backed securities, looks set to remain
unanswered for some time.
Draghi
Devaluing Euro Cheers ECB as Inflation Seen Fading – BB
Mario
Draghi’s strategy for reviving the euro area looks like devaluation.
Could
governments be blackmailed to commit to ECB's ABS programme? – TradingFloor
The
European Central Bank is expected to announce details of its plans to purchase
asset-backed securities. Without government guarantees for them, the ECB will
be unable to meet its policy goals. If the ECB's plans would require such
guarantees, the ECB would be effectively blackmailing the governments:
"give the guarantees, or there will be government bond purchases, like it
or not".
Guide to
Banking Supervision Sep 2014 – ECB
MACRO NUMBERS
German
Inflation Beats Estimates as ECB Adds Euro-Area Stimulus – BB
Steady
German inflation could prop up euro zone rate – Reuters
Euro zone
sentiment worsens in September, inflation expectations fall – Reuters
UNITED STATES
The new
normal of monetary policy – Bruegel
Since 2008,
the asset purchases made under QE have increased drastically the aggregate
level of bank reserves, thereby weakening the control of the Fed's federal
funds rate. On Wednesday 17 September 2014, the Federal Reserve announced a
revised plan for the mechanics of how it will raise interest rates from near
zero despite large excess reserves.
Evans
Says Future Fed Rate Hike Should Be Slow, Gradual – WSJ
Personal
Spending Beats, Rises Most Since March – ZH
Personal
Income +.3% in August, Spending +0.5% - Calculated
Risk
U.S. consumer spending accelerates in
August – Reuters
Key
Inflation Reading Slips Further Below Fed’s 2% Target – WSJ
PCE Price
Index: Headline and Core Little Changed, Remain Below Target – dshort
U.S. pending home sales fall more than
expected in August – Reuters
Pending
Home Sales Drop In August (After Surge In New Home Sales) – ZH
Pending
Home Sales Index -1.0% in August, -2.2% YoY – Calculated
Risk
ASIA
Hong
Kong
resorts to tear gas to break up democracy protesters after warnings – Reuters
Thousands
of Hong Kong residents join protests Sunday * Protests
at Beijing's plan to vet candidates for 2017
presidential elections * Beijing failure to fully understand
situation has helped fuel crisis
Speculation
that China’s central bank governor is stepping down is unsettling markets but
fears of an abrupt change in policy or some power struggle about to implode are
way off the mark. The problems of the economy – and their solutions – have
little to do with who heads the People’s Bank.
OTHER
FX: EUR
or USD, 'safer haven'? – Nordea
With major
event risks this week - ECB starting QE, and US payrolls on Friday - the stock
markets, volatility, could make a major move. How would the EURUSD react to
"risk off"?
DAILIES
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Blackstone’s
Take: Base Effects to Give ECB Some Breathing Room * Secret Review Found New
York Fed Staff Afraid to Speak Up * HKMA Activates Contingency Plan as Hong
Kong Banks Hit by Protests * Mario Draghi’s Next Big Show * New Zealand Dollar
Hits 15-Month Low on RBNZ Intervention
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The
challenges of governing in a weak global economy were on display Monday. Most
strikingly, the protests that have gripped Hong Kong speak to the difficulty that China has in trying to sustain the
Communist Party’s centralized control over power and the economy while also
seeking to take a leadership role in the global economy.
FI
Eye-Opener: Another big week ahead – Nordea
US bonds feel
pressure Friday afternoon. Quarter-end to support bonds for now. EUR/USD
continues to sink. Catalan independence referendum still far from certain.
Fitch affirms Finnish rating and the stable outlook. Big week ahead: ECB, HICP,
payrolls… German inflation and US personal spending on the agenda
today. Italy setting another rather busy issuance week in
motion.
FX
Update: USD rally to pause for breath? – TradingFloor
We’ve got a
lot of data out later this week and the USD rally may cool a bit, at least
until we get to the other side of the key event risks, including the ECB
meeting on Thursday and Friday’s US employment report.
WEEKLIES
The
Macro Week Ahead: How strong is too strong for USD? – TradingFloor
The rise of
the US dollar looks inexorable at the moment, but overall, I advise caution and
a gravitation towards the downside to market-defensive positioning this week.
Event
Risks in the Week Ahead – Marc
to Market
What
Matters for Global Markets in the Week Ahead – WSJ
Viikkokatsaus: Inflaatio hidastuu – innostuuko EKP? –
Nordea
Tulevaa USA: Työmarkkinat palautuvat * EKP:n osto-ohjelma
kiinnostaa * Euroalue: Inflaatio hidastuu lisää * Suomi: Velkaluvut Q2:lta *
Mennyttä Ostopäälliköt: Kasvu jatkuu * Euroalue: Kuluttajien luottamus laski *
Saksa: IFO -indeksi oli pettymys * Suomi: Kotimainen kysyntä heikkoa
Strategy:
On the radar – Nordea
USA: will a stronger USD kill the
inflation forecasts for 2015? * SEK rates: twisted relations, a trade for the
drawer * SEK covered: richness supported, but US High Yield scare can create a
wobble… * SEK linkers: a proxy for SEK 5yr5yr fwd BEI tightener * Basis swaps:
opportunity to sell front-end EURUSD basis * FX: the danger of looking for a
rebound in EURUSD * Central banks: policy rate paths, we´re on the road to
nowhere… * Swedish election update: Löfven will do whatever it takes
FINNISH
TALOUS
Työttömyysdevalvaatio – Suomi tienhaarassa – Anders
Ekholm / Libera
"Jos näin jatketaan, luvassa on
massatyöttömyys" – TalSa
Hakaniemessä luuraa veroparatiisi – TE
Hakaniemen saamat maksut kotitalouksilta ovat täysimääräisesti
verovähennyskelpoisia – eikä siinä vielä kaikki. Ammattiliitot eivät
yleishyödyllisinä yhteisöinä maksa mitään veroja.
Talvi on tulossa – siinä ei paljon AAA auta – TalSa
Luottoluokitus ei ole Suomen huolista suurin tällä hetkellä,
arvioi EK:n johtaja Jyri Häkämies. Talouden kääntäminen nousu-uralle on
lähiajan haaste.
Onko euroalueen talouden pahin ongelma kysynnän puute? –
Suomen
Pankki
Yritysten luottamusindikaattorit laskivat syyskuussa – EK
Musta pilvi leijuu nyt myös palveluyritysten yllä – TalSa
Kuluttajien luottamus hieman miinukselle syyskuussa – Tilastokeskus
Kuluttajaluottamus vajosi jo miinukselle – TalSa
Suomen elinkeinoelämän kaikki luottamusindikaattorit
miinuksella – Verkkouutiset
Osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat hieman elokuussa – Tilastokeskus
Hinnat laskusuunnassa– paitsi pk-seudulla – YLE
POLITIIKKA
Keskusta karkasi kokoomukselta, kannatus nyt 23,3
prosenttia – YLE
Kokoomuksen kannatus on pudonnut kesäkuun lukemiin, joten
uuden puoluejohtajan ja pääministerin Alexander Stubbin tuoma ensihuuma
näyttäisi sulaneen.
Perussuomalaisten aika äijäpuolueena ohi – YLE
Keskusta on nyt suosituin puolue sekä nais- että
miesäänestäjien joukossa. Yle Uutisten syyskuun kannatusmittauksessa kokoomus
menetti kärkipaikkansa naisissa ja perussuomalaiset miehissä. Kokoomukselta on
kadonnut paljon pieni- ja keskituloisia kannattajia.
Vanhas-Matti palaa politiikkaan – Virolainen
Näin Antti Rinne keskittää valtaansa – IS
MAAHANMUUTTO
Maahanmuuttajien sosiaaliturvan käyttö vuonna 2011 – HELDA
Tutkimuksessa kyseenalaistetaan maahanmuuton väitetty
positiivinen vaikutus taloudelliselle huoltosuhteelle.
Hollanti vei passit ja sosiaalituet kymmeniltä
jihadisteiksi epäillyiltä – Verkkouutiset