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Monday, September 14

14th Sep - Fed week ahead

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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 Still in range, EURUSD's last week's rally stopped. Top or pause?

The Eurozone: Looking For The SovereignSocial Europe
You Never Want a Serious Crisis to go to WasteThe Brussels Times
Instead of trying to impose a single fiscal model on everyone, why not allow diversity to flourish?

The German counter-attack on Juncker’s euro plansFT
Martin Sandbu: Un-Scandinavian lessons in balancing Finland’s economyFT
Cutting bank holidays and sick pay may not improve exports, writes Martin Sandbu

Animating Europe’s capital marketsThe Economist
Creating American-style capital markets in Europe will be hard

Many say it’s time for the ECB to ramp up QE. But how?Reuters
Migration and Euro Pose Similar Challenges for Europe – WSJ
Refugees in Europe – The Economist
The Breaking Point? Germany's Asylum System Struggles to Cope – Spiegel
Europe’s challenge: Strangers in strange lands – The Economist
The end of Schengen – Politico
Germany 'to reinstate border controls' – The Telegraph
Trying to limit the flow of non-Europeans has backfired – The Economist
German Border-Check Move Threatens Europe’s Frontier-Free Ideal – BB

Five Fiscal Deadlines to Watch This FallWSJ

FOMC Preview: Almost there – Danske Bank
Nomura FOMC Preview: December – Bill McBride
Goldman Sachs FOMC Preview: December – Bill McBride
The Fed should wait until inflation is closer to target – The Economist
The case for raising interest rates is worryingly hazy – The Economist
FOMC Preview and Review of Projections – Bill McBride
Max McKegg: Fed fence-sitters to be called to order this week – TF
How will the Fed actually raise interest rates? – Tyler Cowen
JPM: Both A Rate Hike And A Delay Would Be Bullish For Stocks – ZH
BofA's preview – ZH

FX: how will G10 currencies perform after Fed liftoff?Nordea
While lots of ink has been spilled looking at the tendency for EUR/USD to rise after Fed liftoff, in this piece we look at all G10 crosses and pairs and find that recent history suggests it makes sense to buy EUR/SEK for a 1M bet, EUR/USD for a 3M bet, or to sell USDJPY for a 6M bet. We also look at the performance of S&P500...

FX: what if hike?Nordea
The Market is skeptical Fed will raise rates this week. But what if they do? The short term reaction may be wrong guide to long term market moves...

Gavyn Davies: What caused the equity crash?FT
Gavyn Davies on 4 types of shocks Scott Sumner

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
The Great Debate Gets Resolved This Week, Maybe

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Fed Tops Agenda This Week

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Are the Years of Plenty Over? 
Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Markets mixed reflecting cross-currents of China concerns and Fed optimism * China’s August data point to stabilisation of growth, but below 7% target – we expect more stimulus * Eurozone’s resilience continues, as industrial sector starts Q3 on a strong note

Euro rates updateNordea

Chinese data disappointing * Germany suspends Schengen * USD on the back-foot * Fed’s message to pressure bonds this week

Morning MarketsTF
Well, it's finally here – the week in which the Federal Reserve may finally announce the monetary policy change that's been on hold for a decade. Markets have been trying to second-guess this one more many months but though hopes of a rate hike on Thursday have been sapped in recent weeks by China's economic and market tribulations, there is still no consensus of by how much and when the Fed will move.

Daily ShotTF
US oil production is near its recent highs, but a decline in the number of oil rigs indicates that output will decline. Opec nations are also feeling the pinch from weak oil prices, as outflows of Saudi Arabia's FX reserves show.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Germany temporarily re-imposes border checks with Austria * Eurozone promises to consult non-euro states on key decisions * Labour’s new shadow cabinet seeks to reassure party over EU stance * Syriza and New Democracy neck and neck in polls heading into final week before election * Germany continues to target EU wide financial transaction tax * Ireland steps up efforts to keep UK inside the EU

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Schengen shocker — Corbyn-quake — What next for Labour?

Futures Fade Early Euphoria After Chinese Stocks Resume Slide


FX UpdateTF
One of the more anticipated FOMC meetings in recent memory is dead ahead, though the market may not get the clarity it is so desperately seeking. Elsewhere, plenty of subplots this week with an SNB meeting also on tap for Thursday and important UK data up on Wednesday.

From the FloorTF
The Chinese slowdown is back in the news as retail sales and industrial production data from Beijing showed less-than-phenomenal (but still entirely unmatched in the developed world) growth. With the Fed rate hike on the ropes, then, what's a weary world to do?

Fed: maltti on valttia - kokous viikon kohokohta * USA:n tuottajahinnat pysyivät kurissa * Korot laskettelivat perjantaina heikon riskisentimentin painamina

Sisäinen devalvaatio ei finanssipolitiikan kiristysRoger Wessman

Hyvää ja huonoa inflaatiota – case JapaniRoger Wessman

Teollisuuden liikevaihto Q2 -5% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto Q2 +3,3% YoY – Tilastokeskus