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Tuesday, September 1

1st Sep - Bearish day marks the new month

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Bad Chinese and US purchasing manager indices - bad economy!
 EURUSD higher, stocks down. Technically looks like the moves have more to go. ECB meeting on Thursday, US employment report on Friday.

Yanis Varoufakis: Democratizing the Eurozone Project Syndicate
Political systems prove their worth by how quickly they put an end to their officials’ serial, mutually reinforcing, policy mistakes. Judged by this standard, the eurozone, comprising 19 well-established democracies, lags behind the largest non-democratic economy in the world.

ECB preview: No additional stimulus – yetNordea
Despite mounting global risks, the continued recovery in the Euro area is likely enough to keep the ECB happy with its current easing measures, but with risks tilted clearly towards further easing. The ECB’s message is thus unlikely to feed expectations of more easing around the corner. As such expectations do not appear to be high currently, the message should be only a small disappointment for markets.

ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 51.1 in August – Bill McBride
Manufacturing ISM set to decline further – Danske Bank
Construction Spending Hits a New Postrecession High – WSJ
Factory activity slows; construction spending up solidly – Reuters

Great Graphic: US-German 2-Year Spread and the Euro RevisitedMarc Chandler

The Most Downloaded SSRN Paper Ever Is All About Market TimingBB
And it suggests investors should currently be in cash

The Past, Present and Future of Economics, According to Olivier BlanchardWSJ

Global factory growth at two-year low – PMIReuters
China manufacturing contracts, euro zone and U.S. slowsReuters

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Say Goodbye to Dreary August

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Take a Fresh Hit as China Data Disappoints

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Odds Stacked Against Stocks in September

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global Daily ABN AMRO
We see a rising risk that the ECB will step up QE at this week’s policy meeting *We now expect a Fed hike in December rather than September * We have lowered our government bond yield forecasts, but kept EUR/USD unchanged

Euro rates updateNordea

Oil prices at 1-month high; yields up; stocks down; EUR gains *Focus on US manufacturing sector today * EUR inflation expectations steady on positive inflation surprise

Morning MarketsTF
It's a day of manufacturing releases, and a soft one from China has already sent Asian markets reeling. What will the situation be in the Eurozone and North America?

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Back to Crisis Mode

Daily ShotTF
Signs of a slowdown in China are seemingly everywhere at the moment, from manufacturing to equities to Macau gambling revenues.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Merkel: Without a fair distribution of refugees, future of Schengen will be on the agenda *
Syriza and leader Tsipras face declining support ahead of fresh Greek elections * FT: Cameron rules out demanding EU employment law opt-out * Germany shows openness to French Economy Minister’s calls for deeper Eurozone integration

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Merkel on migration — Cameron climbdown?


US Futures Tumble After Latest Abysmal Chinese Economic Data, Crude Surge Stalls

FX UpdateTF
Weak survey data out of China overnight is pressuring currencies along the axis of risk appetite, though the action is muted relative to recent gyrations. Focus swings to US and other manufacturing surveys today.

From the FloorTF
Fear is sweeping through world financial markets this morning as depressing evidence of China's increasingly poor economic health triggered sharp falls on Asian bourses and battered already-weakened emerging market and commodity currencies. Crude oil is a standout exception to the rout and has experienced its biggest rally in 25 years.

Ruotsin talouskasvu sorsii Suomea * Euro sai tukea euroalueen ennakoitua korkeammasta inflaatiosta * Öljyn hinta jatkoi eilen nousuliikettään | USA:n teollisuuden luottamus (ISM) julkaistaan tänään

Elina Berghäll: Haikailua realistisen talouspolitiikan perään Eurothinktank

Raimo Sailas: Epäonnistunut eurohanke tarvitsee ihmeen HS

Suomen eurojäsenyys kuohuttaa – "Euro on täysin väärä valinta"TalSa
Suomen eurojäsenyyden hyvyydestä käydään kuumenevaa keskustelua. Suomen Pankin neuvonantajan markkakritiikille tuli täyslaidallinen.

Henri Myllyniemi: Suomi euromaanaUS