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Tuesday, September 15

15th Sep - Closing and closing on Fed

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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 Bank of Japan did nothing. Bad euro area ZEW, US retail sales, industrial production:

 EURUSD topped out a bit. Equities still in range. Waiting for FED.

UK Economic Outlook: in good economic shapeNordea

Finland: Debt grows while Finland struggles to reformDanske Bank
Finland - Concluding Statement Article IV ConsultationIMF

A survey-based measure of slack for the euro area – ECB
The state of the house price cycle in the euro area – ECB

Migration into the EU - a first look at the impact – DB Research
EU court deals blow to ‘benefits’ migration – Politico

RBS: Fed Shouldn't Worry About Losing Credibility: It Already Did – ZH
The Consensus is No Rate Hike this Week – Bill McBride
Here’s How the Street Views the Fed’s Delicate Balancing Act – WSJ
Data Dependent? Fed Policy Is Volatility Dependent! – Econmatters
Larry Summers: Here’s yet another reason the Fed shouldn’t raise rates – WaPo
Why the Fed Is Likely to Stand Pat This Week – BB
The economy never seems to be as good as the Fed thinks it will be – WaPo

Will The Fed Jeopardize Any Of The Three Key Bottoms?Alpha Now
August saw the S&P 500 (.SPX), oil (CLc1), and the dollar index (.DXY) form significant lows. However, Fed action, or lack thereof, could jeopardize two out of these three key bottoms.

August Retail Sales Post Small Improvement, But Consumers Still Spooked – Alpha Now
US core retail sales have grown quite solidly so far in the third quarter – Pictet
Retail Sales Disappoints – ZH
Retail Sales increased 0.2% in August – Bill McBride
Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.4% in August – Bill McBride

Yield Forecast Update: Fed hike vs possible further ECB easingDanske Bank

BoJ stands pat on policy for now – more QE possible in October Nordea
This time, BOJ could wait and watch before coming to yen’s rescue – Reuters

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Down, Traders Sitting Out

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Caution Continues to Dominate

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
The U.S. Appears Headed for an Earnings Recession

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
US retail sales show signs of sustained economic growth…despite turmoil in financial markets * ZEW sentiment drops, while eurozone labour market continues to improve

Euro rates updateNordea

BoJ stays put, JPY strengthening * Yields dragged lower by growing Chinese worries, still waiting for Thursday * UK inflation in negative territory * EUR falls as stock market weakens

Morning MarketsTF
Oil should have got a fillip from Opec's belief that it is winning its production war with the North American shale sector, but remains stuck. And yes, the FOMC meeting continues to dominate the agenda elsewhere.

Daily ShotTF
The situation in emerging markets continues to be dire as the BRICS countries struggle with falling equities, declining inflation and staggering debt obligations.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
EU member states fail to agree on binding refugee quotas as German Interior Minister suggests cutting EU funding to those countries not doing enough * ECJ rules member states entitled to withhold benefits from unemployed EU migrants * French President eyes shake up in labour market rules * EU extends sanctions on individuals in Ukraine crisis * EU ministers meet to discuss aid programme for farmers

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Schengen split complicates migration debate — The Corbyn crew — New Brexit balance

China Stocks Drop Most Since Late August, BOJ Disappoints Bailout Addicts; US Futures Flat


FX UpdateTF
The FOMC waiting game continues as AUD saw an active session overnight on political developments while the Bank of Japan monetary policy statement entirely failed to make an impression. Risk sentiment remains a bit wobbly, keeping USDJPY near the 120.00 level.

From the FloorTF
As the wait for Thursday's Federal reserve policy decision grinds inexorably onwards (and as journalists the world over run out of synonyms for 'waiting patiently') one could be forgiven for assuming that the price of everything in every market, everywhere, hinges on the immediate outcome of this single event. For equities, however, it's different.

Kehittyvät taloudet hidastuvat uhkaavasti * Euroalueen teollisuustuotannon kasvu vahvaa * Kiinan teollisuustuotanto aiheutti pettymyksen * Tänään julkaistaan Britannian inflaatio ja Saksan ZEW-indeksi

Henri Myllyniemi: Schengen, euro ja EU – korttitalo tornadossaUS

IMF:n loppulausunto Suomen taloudestaSuomen Pankki

Pentti Haaparanta: Hypyt on jo hypättyAkateeminen talousblogi