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Wednesday, September 16

16th Sep - Rally ahead of Fed

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Philippe Legrain: The eurozone remains stuck in the slow lane - CapX
The eurozone remains stuck in the slow lane * Crony capitalism continues to hold back the Eurozone * Both creditor and debtor countries need to do more to boost investment

Interview Vítor Constâncio: Interview with Thomson ReutersECB
ECB says QE relatively small so far, has scope – ConstancioReuters

UK: Labour market no longer a major concern for BoEDanske Bank

Does the FOMC decision matter much to the markets? – Cam Hui
Q&A: Lawrence Summers and Why It’s Too Early to Raise Rates – WSJ
The Fed is trying to do what nobody else has been able to do – WaPo
5 Things to Watch at This Week’s Fed Meeting – WSJ
All eyes on Fed – The Guardian

The ‘Nice Mess’ of Monetary Policy - WSJ

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Surge as Traders Scramble

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Climb Ahead of Fed

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
A Rate Rise Thursday Would Surprise Investors

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
We expect the Fed to keep rates on hold, but to continue to signal a rate hike this year – Such a scenario would be relatively benign for financial markets – We sketch out a more negative scenario (a 25bp hike) and a positive one (signal of no hike until 2016)
Euro rates updateNordea

Eye-Opener Nordea
Higher bond yields and equities ahead of the FOMC meeting * 2-year US Treasury yield on a 4½-year high * FX lessons from the past three major Fed hiking cycles * Riksbank minutes out today – a new reaction function?

Morning MarketsTF
Markets have been holding their breath all week ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and today is no exception. At this late hour, though, with what data remain coming in soft and emerging markets teetering on the brink, we really have to wonder: is it time?

Daily ShotTF
Mixed US economic data, including stalled industrial production growth due to the strong dollar and an unchanged Atlanta Fed forecast for 1.5% GDP growth in the third quarter, offer food for thought for the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting this week.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Merkel rejects criticism of Germany’s handling of migrant crisis and calls for emergency EU summit * New poll finds lead for remaining in EU shrinking * Polish President sees ‘eye-to-eye’ with David Cameron over issues of sovereignty * Brussels to present ‘significant reforms’ to EU-US free trade deal’s arbitration system to silence critics * Former Polish Finance Minister warns on the perils of mandatory migrant quotas * German states request further €3bn to deal with influx of refugees * AfD neck and neck with SPD in Saxony * European Court of Auditors warns on significant errors in public procurement across EU * ECB VP says immigration can help stop “demographic suicide” in Europe * Eurozone trade surplus reaches record high in July

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Taxi jam — Summit season continues — Greek heat

China Plunge Protectors Unleash Berserk Buying Spree In Last Hour Of Trading As Fed Meeting Begins


FX UpdateTF
Risk appetite was back in rally mode and risky currencies were generally stronger versus the US dollar, even as the latter was in turn stronger against the euro and the JPY. This suggests that the market is either looking for a relatively dovish FOMC tomorrow, or at least a "non-hawkish" one that doesn't see any confidence-damaging rhetoric from Janet Yellen and company.

From the FloorTF
There is some frantic last-minute positioning for a Fed rate hike going on with the sharp selloff in US Treasuries. No-one wants to get eggs on their faces here.

Kilpailu öljyn markkinaosuuksista kovenee * USA:sta hyvät vähittäismyynnin luvut * Riksbank julkistaa tänään kokouspöytäkirjan * Britannian inflaatio laski nollaan

Sipilän puheYLE
Sipilä sai poikkeuksellisen huomion, mutta sanoi yllättävän vähän HS
Kannattiko pääministerin puhe? HS
SDP eri mieltä Sipilän puheen sisällöstä IL
Timo Haapala: Sipilä ohitti ay-änkyrät ja vetosi suoraan kansaan MTV

Henri Karjalainen: Hallituksen leikkaukset ja deflaatioriski sisämarkkinolla US