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Tuesday, September 29

29th Sep - The bottom?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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European FI Strategy: Easing vs tighteningNordea
While the Fed is still pondering when to raise rates, the ECB has opened the door to even more easing. Financial markets are not betting on either of these happening in the immediate future. Spreads remain on a modest widening trend, and it would take stronger hopes of more QE to change that. We have taken a closer look at the recent QE modifications and find that the immediate changes flow-wise speak in favor of curve flattening.

EUR curves Nordea
Flow-wise the recent QE changes speak in favor of the curve flattening

Sweden: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2015 Article IV MissionIMF

US Shutdown Showdown may be Postponed Until DecemberMarc Chandler

U.S. manufacturing flashing warning signsReuters

Ben Bernanke vs. Janet Yellen: Exploring the (a)symmetry of individual and aggregate inflation expectationsSNB

Bond market overview: Rate hikes or expanded QE? Nordea
The ECB has opened the door for more easing, while the Fed has postponed its first tightening move. Even though central bank rhetoric has opened more downside for bond yields, the recent ranges have held so far. While risks remain on the downside, the Fed remains on course for a hike still this year, while the ECB is likely to refrain from an immediate expansion of its QE programme.

Bond spreads: More QE needed to narrow spreadsNordea
Despite the fact that the ECB has opened the door for further easing measures, intra-Euro-area bond spreads have not seen a clear narrowing. It would take clearer easing signals from the ECB to push spreads much narrower, and political risks are likely to keep spreads on a widening path for now. Spanish bonds are set to face more pressure vs Italy, while Finnish bond spreads are likely to underperform vs the Netherlands and Austria.

Global Financial Stability Report October 2015IMF
Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets

Market Liquidity Not in Decline, but Prone to Evaporate – IMF
Rise in Emerging Market Corporate Debt Driven by Global Factors – IMF
Getting the Dog to Bark: Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector – IMF
Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial Globalization – IMF
Where did all the EM FX bonds go? – FT
IMF warns of coming spike in emerging market company failures – FT
IMF Flashes Warning Lights for $18 Trillion in EM Corporate Debt – WSJ

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Battered Again as Health Care Takes Hit

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Global Selloff Continues

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Health-Care, Biotech Stocks Are Unloved

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global Daily – ABN AMRO
Catalonia’s election did not result in a majority of votes for the pro-independence parties…but Spanish bonds will continue to be driven by political uncertainty until the general election * ECB officials send mixed signals on how quickly QE plus decision might come

Lower inflation in Euro-area countries: Euro-area inflation back to zero * Blood on the streets: yields fall, USD king amid risk-off

Morning MarketsTF
European stock markets are expected to open sharply lower this morning, following in the wake of their Asian counterparts which were hammered as risk-off sentiment deepened across the region. Risk aversion is the name of the game today.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Markets on Tenterhooks

Daily ShotTF
Rates in the US will be hiked some day, but Fed officials still do not seem to agree on the timing. Also, one should think twice before jumping on Volkswagen's shares. Even after having fallen below 100 euro there is downside risk potential.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron warns refugee crisis complicates debate on EU membership in UK as EU Migration Commissioner tells member states to ignore its political cost * New poll shows lowest level of support for Germany’s grand coalition since its formation * Moscovici argues for establishment of a Eurozone Finance Minister within the European Commission * EU blames US for stalling of TTIP negotiations * Formation of pro-independence government in Catalonia remains uncertain * Spain reaches deal with Commission on deferred tax assets

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
TTIP half-baked — Catalonia fallout — Merkel twilight?

Asian Equities Tumble On Commodity Fears; US Futures Rebound After India "Unexpectedly" Eases More Than Expected


FX UpdateTF
Weak risk sentiment continues to dominate the proceedings here, with the usual suspects, the euro and yen, at the top of the heap, while the commodity dollars and EM are getting the worst of it in this environment. It’s tough to see what will turn the tide at the moment.

From the FloorTF
Markets are broadly lower today in the wake of yesterday's Glencore share price collapse and the longer-running bout of weak risk sentiment.

Norjan kruunu pysyy pinteessä * Euroalueelta tänään talouselämän luottamus sekä alustavia inflaatiolukuja * Fedin Williams ja Dudley puhuivat koronnoston puolesta * Ruotsin vähittäismyynti oli pettymys