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Monday, October 12

12th Oct - Fed seen 50-50 in Dec or 2016

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Brussels gives Cameron a November deadlinePolitico
If Cameron does not produce demands for EU reform by early November, the topic will be wiped from the agenda of the December EU leaders’ summit.

Growing Government Debt Will Test Euro-Zone SolidarityView / BB

Fed Struggles With The High Water MarkTim Duy
October is off the table (despite what Lacker might believe). They first need to decide if the last two months of jobs data were aberrations or signals of slowing job growth. They can't do that before October. And I am not confident they can do so by December.

Fed officials seem ready to deploy negative rates in next crisisMarketWatch

Goldman does New WaveFT

Citi's Willem Buiter has called it: we're about to go into 'global recession'BI

The dangers of historical taboosFrances Coppola
G-30 Central Bankers Warn They Can "No Longer Save The World"ZH

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
A Strong Week for U.S. Stocks

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Edge Higher, Helped By Chinese Gains

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
With Bank Stocks Bruised, Earnings Could Help

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Higher equities, weaker USD, and a dovish Draghi * A week dominated by inflation – or lack of it * Time not yet ripe for a clearer move higher in yields * USD remains under pressure

Morning MarketsTF
Chinese equity bulls roared into action on Monday as regional bourses followed last week's strong closes in Europe and the US and China's central bank fixed the renminbi higher against the dollar for the seventh straight session. European exchanges, meanwhile, are expected to open mildly lower while an absence of tier-one economic indicators will keep major FX pairs pinned in tight ranges.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
New Week, Dollar Pressure Continues

Daily ShotTF
The strong USD is taking its toll on the US economy as exports slow to a crawl and inventories pile up. Despite the macro weakness, however, many economists still expect a 2015 rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
 ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ campaign to make hard-headed and pragmatic case for EU membership * Sunday Telegraph: Cameron has drawn up a four-point plan for EU renegotiation * Majority of Germans think Merkel is handling the refugee crisis badly * Austrian anti-immigration party wins almost one third of votes in Vienna election * New poll shows Dutch anti-immigration party enjoys highest level of support since 2004 * Hundreds of thousands take part in anti-TTIP rally in Berlin * Podemos relegated to distant fourth in new Spanish poll * EU laws the UK failed to block cost Britain £2.4bn a year, ‘Vote Leave’ campaign says * Sweden edges closer to snap elections as budget pact with opposition parties collapses * Barclays chief: European investment banks should consider merging to compete with US rivals

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Brexit week ahead — Meet the other EU institutions

Chinese Stocks Rally On Confusion Whether PBOC Finally Launched QE; US Futures Flat In Holiday Mode


FX UpdateTF

From the FloorTF
The US Federal Reserve looks like it has all but flown the white flag on a rate move this side of Christmas boosting risk sentiment.

Riksbankin päätökset riippuvat EKP:stä ja Fedistä * Tällä viikolla luvassa reilusti inflaatiodataa * Suomen teollisuuden uudet tilaukset piristyivät elokuussa I Kolumbuksen päivä pitää USA:n velkakirjamarkkinat tänään kiinni

Talousviisaat pohtivat: kannattaako eurosta erota, mikä on ”helvettikustannus”