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Tuesday, October 27

27th Oct - Weak UK GDP, EZ M3, US durable goods

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Here's One Europe Central Bank Turning Corner With Its Currency BB
Banks in Sweden Told to Add Risk Weights to Government Bonds – BB

Gideon Rachman: The end of the Merkel era is within sight – FT
EU to give more budget leeway to states facing extra refugee costs – Reuters
Tusk Sees Threat to Borderless Travel as Slovenia Eyes Fence – BB

Monetary developments in the euro area: September 2015 – ECB
Euro area: big drop in credit flows in September to be reversed – Pictet
Euro zone bank lending sluggish despite tsunami of QE and cheap cash – Reuters
Draghi's compromise with doves heralds ECB policy easing in December – Reuters

Quarterly growth 0.5% - The Economist
Growth lower than expected – Nordea
Economy Expands Less Than Forecast as Production Cools – BB
Growth slowed in Q3 - services doing fine while manufacturing suffers – Danske Bank
Britain’s growth slowdown no “game changer” – Reuters

Can the Fed surprise as much as the ECB? – TF
There Are Going to Be Some Major Debates Inside the Fed This WeekBB
Yellen Has Over 6 Million Reasons to Take Her Time Raising Rates – BB
Why the Fed may have to hike rates – TF

White House urges Congress to pass budget compromise reached by leaders – Reuters
Treasury Bill Rates Slide Below Zero After Debt-Ceiling Accord – BB

Durables Report Pulls GDP Estimates Down Even Further – WSJ
Durable Goods Orders Tumble For 6th Consecutive Month – ZH
Weak U.S. business spending plans point to slower economic growth – BB

FX: another Quantitative Repricing?Nordea
The market was positively surprised by the dovish rhetoric from the ECB in October. The question is no longer if the ECB will launch more stimulus, it’s mostly how much, and how to discount it. The market reaction from Draghi should be encouraging for the doves in Frankfurt, but is no game-changer for the Fed. Indeed, the EUR could be about to experience another Quantitative Repricing between now and New Year’s Eve.

720Global: Is the Yield Curve Still a Dependable Signal?ZH

Markets Monitor October 2015OFR

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Ease Back Ahead of Fed Meeting

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Fed Stalls Market Action

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Stocks Set for Best Month in Four Years. Can it Hold?

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
FOMC statement to signal uncertainty about timing of rate rise * We expect the Fed to delay lift-off until 2016 * Germany’s Ifo only slightly lower – economy cushioned by domestic demand

Tentative US budget deal; yields lower; EUR rebounds * UK Q3 GDP to show solid growth * Rates markets gone into too extreme easing mode * USD eases, GBP to gain on stronger data

Morning MarketsTF
Shares across Asia headed lower on an uninspired Wall St lead and cheap commodities.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Eases as Key Events Still Awaited

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
FAZ: Merkel needs to follow up her words with deeds in order to keep the UK in the EU *
Senior PiS MP: We have a different vision for Europe than the Franco-German one * Spanish PM calls general election for 20 December * CSU leader criticises Austria for mishandling refugee flow and warns Merkel to “end this practice” * EU Commissioner: Real challenge of our quota scheme is that refugees need to stay where they are relocated to * MPs force government to lobby against ‘tampon tax’ in Brussels

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Ukraine ruling — The ‘King of Poland’ — Tax time

US Open ZH
Futures Flat After Yen Carry Tremors As Fed Starts 2-Day Policy Meeting


FX UpdateTF
Currency traders are doing everything they can at the moment to keep the price action corralled in a tight range ahead of this week’s key event risks. Today, sterling may react to any significant GDP surprises.

From the FloorTF
Markets swung into risk-off gear overnight as the rally inspired by China's dovish broadside last Friday ran out of steam, edging most Asian equity indices into the red and boosting familiar safe havens ahead of tomorrow's crucial Federal Reserve statement. European markets have followed suit. But while the mood is skittish the going is still sluggish and volumes are on the light side.

Suomen viennillä kaksi mahdollisuutta * Saksalaisyritykset aiempaa optimistisempia * Tänään luvassa Britannian BKT-luvut * Ruotsista saadaan tiedot teollisuuden luottamuksesta

Kulutus ja sisäinen devalvaatioRoger Wessman