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Friday, October 16

16th Oct - Eyes turning to ECB

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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ECB preview: No more than soft words at this pointNordea
We expect once again a dovish message from the ECB but no new policy steps. Draghi will repeat that the QE programme will be fully implement and more will be done if needed. We think that ultimately at least a QE extension will be needed, but that will not be announced yet. A rate cut is quite unlikely and certainly not high on the ECB’s list of policy options. At this point, soft words will probably be enough to push bond yields and the euro modestly lower.

Draghi's Words Mean Little to European Markets Expecting ActionBB
Markets are readying for a cut to the European Central Bank’s deposit rate, regardless of what its policy makers say in public.

EU Leaders Back Off Banking Union Pledge as Juncker Presses OnBB

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Rally as Rate-Hike Odds Fall

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Cheer Likelihood of Fed Standing Still

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Fridays a Friend or Foe of Investors?

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
ECB officials signal increasing need for additional easing, pulling EUR/USD down from highs *
We continue to expect increase and extension of ECB QE before year end * Fed’s Dudley says economy is slowing, and brings forward arguments for rate hike delay

Euro rates updateNordea

NY Fed Dudley did little to boost the probability of a 2015 hike * CNY weakest in 2 weeks, US inflation to return * US inflation will not be gone for long

Morning MarketsTF
Asian markets ended their trading week with bravura as leading stock indices from Australia through Japan to China all closed in positive territory. The US dollar too was in fine fettle and registered gains against its peers while WTI crude oil broke past the psychologically important $50/barrel barrier.

Daily ShotTF
US consumer price inflation exceeded expectations by a tenth of a point in September at 1.9%, driven up largely by costs of rental housing, and a Fed rate increase would make things only worse for wage-earners without solving the housing problem.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Open Europe poses ten questions for the EU referendum ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ campaigns *
David Cameron to put EU renegotiation proposals in writing by November * Turkey requests €3bn and swifter Schengen visa liberalisation in return for helping EU on refugee crisis * New poll ahead of Polish election has Law and Justice firmly in front but short of overall majority *
Sturgeon: Brexit against wishes of Scottish people would probably make demand for a second independence referendum unstoppable * EU leaders scrap reference to “urgency” of completing banking union from summit conclusions * German parliament passes new asylum seeker rules

Brussels Playbook Politico
EU-Turkey refugee deal — Brexit — Elections

Buying Panic Fizzles As Option Expiration Looms


FX UpdateTF
The USD stepped back from the brink of a major failure yesterday in EURUSD and USDJPY as next week’s ECB meeting is eyed and perhaps on the recovery of risk appetite. But US catalysts are sparse over the next week.

From the FloorTF
Yesterday's US inflation print came in above expectations and saw the nation's core CPI come in at an anaemic (but not deflationary!) 0.2%, month-over-month. The slight gain saw USD buyers return to the fray, with EURUSD and USDJPY the headline pairs to watch for continuation of the strong dollar trend.

Suomen talousahdinko ei näytä hellittävän * USA:n inflaatio hidastui väliaikaisesti * Fedin Dudley toisti kantansa koronnoston puolesta * Ruotsin työllisyys ennakoitua heikompi