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Monday, October 26

26th Oct - German IFO, easy before events

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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 MARKETS: Slow day to begin the week. EZ M3 on Tue morning, Wed Fed.

DATA: German IFO surprised

EP and Commission in a Row over EZ future, Council Is Indifferent – euinside

Yanis Varoufakis: Schäuble’s Gathering Storm – Social Europe

Poland: new government and higher uncertainty – Danske Bank
Eurosceptics claim victory in landmark Poland election – Reuters
Polish right sweeps parliamentary elections – Politico
Kaczynski regains power as conservatives win Polish vote – FT
Poland Hands Unprecedented Ballot Win to Conservative Party – BB
Poland’s Successful Losers – Project Syndicate

Commission migration proposal draws fire – Politico
Germany flexes its anti-migrant muscles – Politico
Balkan, EU leaders agree to coordinate on migrants – Reuters
Tensions Rise Between European Nations Over Refugee Crisis – BB

Is Mario Draghi About To Go Full-Kuroda? RBS Says ECB Could Buy Stocks – ZH
News In Charts: The ECB All But Promises Additional Monetary Stimulus – Alpha Now
Wolfgang Münchau: Draghi must be more unconventional – FT
Draghi in Countdown to More Stimulus Awaits Clues on Economy – BB

October Ifo Business Climate Declines Only Slightly – CESifo
German Ifo drops in October – Carsten Brzeski
Germany: Solid Ifo numbers – Nordea

2013 redux: US debt ceiling might lead to rate hikes – TF
Yellen, consensus-builder, needs to send strong signal at Fed meet – Reuters
FOMC Preview: Still waiting for the green lightDanske Bank
Why the Fed won’t raise rates in October — in five chartsWaPo

China: monetary easing and financial reform in one stepNordea
China delivered another dual cut today to support the struggling economy, 25bp to the interest rates and 50bp to the reserve ratio. As a historical move, the deposit rate ceiling was removed, making interest rates fully liberalised and increasing the CNY’s chance of being a reserve currency. The easing is likely to keep short-term growth stable but risks aggravating the existing problem faced by the economy. We remain cautious for the medium-term outlook

China leaders meet to discuss financial reforms, economic growthReuters
China's ruling Communist Party opened a key meeting on Monday that will focus on financial reforms and how to maintain growth of around seven percent and more broadly map out economic and social targets for the next five years.

FX: impossible trinityNordea
Can Draghi get it all?  The USD staged a comeback - how long it will last? The ball in Fed's hands now, but China - above all.

Max McKegg: Fed in focus, possible EURUSD double whammy aheadTF
There is little chance of action from the FOMC, but it may give some guidance * The FOMC has the potential to swamp any moves by minnow central banks * Market pricing suggests only a 30% chance that the Fed will hike rates this year * It would be a double whammy for EURUSD if the ECB and Fed move in December

A Dozen Ways Charlie Munger Thinks like Philip Tetlock Suggests in his New Book Superforecasting25iq

Market Breadth UpdateShort Side of Long
NYSE new highs are starting to rise, while new lows are retreating * Improving breadth with majority of the stocks rising above 50 MA * Energy sector could break out as breadth remains extremely oversold

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Back on Bullish Track

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Momentum Fades in Europe

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
U.S. Stocks Look Technically Healthy

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Chinese rate cut, good Euro-area numbers, lots of action in the week ahead * ECB and PBoC surprises last week put more pressure on the Fed this week * Euro-area yields digesting Draghi’s message * The USD keeps strengthening

Morning MarketsTF
After super-dovish comments from the European Central Bank last week, markets this week look for further guidance from the US Federal Reserve, which holds its FOMC on Tuesday-Wednesday amid increasing signs that the slowdown rippling through emerging markets may be affecting the world's leading economy. but Asian markets got a lift on Monday from China's interest rate cut at the end of last week.

Daily ShotTF
China's Central Bank on Friday followed the European Central Bank with a fresh round of monetary easing and cut its benchmark rates. The easing in those two regions helped Germany's Dax in particular.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Downing Street insists that “leave means leave” in EU referendum * Commission seeks European Parliament ‘work around’ to secure UK reforms * Law and Justice triumph in Polish elections * Slovenian PM: EU “will start falling apart” unless immediate action on refugees is taken * Schäuble says mood among CDU party members is “dramatically” worse due to Merkel’s refugee policy * Osborne’s plans to boost infrastructure investment by tapping local government pension schemes could fall afoul of EU rules * ‘Tampon tax’ rebellion could force UK Government to renegotiate VAT powers with EU * EU Commission Vice-President: No matter who wins, Spain will have to amend its 2016 budget * Airbus CEO demands Germany should open labour market to refugees

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Poland’s political earthquake — Migration mini-summit flop

Futures Fizzle, Europe Red As Markets Ask: "What Do Central Banks Do Now?"


FX UpdateTF
Last week was about Mario Draghi’s dovish tour-de-force at the ECB press conference. This week, the focus shifts to the US Fed and whether it dares offer any notable shift in forward guidance ahead of key incoming US data points later this week and next.

From the FloorTF
The People's Bank of China spent Friday showing the world it could ease policy with the best of them, while the bank of Japan is expected to do the same Friday. With the European Central Bank fully locked in, the only question remains the Fed's commitment to normalisation. Can the US go it alone?

Riksbank ei voi levätä * Vilkas viikko edessä sekä keskuspankki- että datarintamalla * Kiinan keskuspankki leikkasi korkoja tukeakseen huojuvaa taloutta * Euroalueelta saatiin vahvat PMI-luvut

Jan Hurri: Turha valittaa – Nordea väistelee jäävuoriaNordea
Suomen finanssiviranomaiset moittivat pankkijätti Nordeaa aikeista muuttaa Suomen alakonserni sivuliikkeeksi. Moitteet näyttävät oudoilta, sillä muutto pankkiunionin ulkopuolelle pienentää eikä kasvata pankin riskejä.

Kyllä, EKP:n toimet vaikuttavat tehoavanRoger Wessman

10 käppyrää: Suomen työttömyystilanne lohdutonTE

Vähittäiskaupan syyskuun pikaennakko: -1,7% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden syyskuun tuottajahinnat  -3,2% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen tuottajahinnat heinä-syysk. ennallaan YoY – Tilastokeskus