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MARKETS: Slow day to begin the week. EZ M3 on Tue morning, Wed Fed.
DATA: German IFO surprised
EUROPE
Yanis Varoufakis:
Schäuble’s Gathering Storm – Social Europe
POLAND ELECTIONS
Poland: new government and higher uncertainty – Danske
Bank
Eurosceptics claim victory in landmark Poland election – Reuters
Polish right sweeps parliamentary elections – Politico
Kaczynski regains power as conservatives win Polish vote – FT
Poland Hands Unprecedented Ballot Win to Conservative Party – BB
Poland’s Successful Losers – Project
Syndicate
MIGRANT CRISIS
Commission migration proposal draws fire – Politico
Germany flexes its anti-migrant muscles – Politico
Balkan, EU leaders agree to coordinate on migrants – Reuters
Tensions Rise Between European Nations Over Refugee Crisis – BB
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Is Mario Draghi About To Go Full-Kuroda? RBS Says ECB Could Buy
Stocks – ZH
News In Charts: The ECB All But Promises
Additional Monetary Stimulus – Alpha Now
Wolfgang Münchau: Draghi must be more unconventional – FT
Draghi in Countdown to More Stimulus Awaits Clues on Economy – BB
GERMAN IFO SENTIMENT
October Ifo Business Climate Declines Only Slightly – CESifo
German Ifo drops in October – Carsten
Brzeski
Germany: Solid Ifo numbers – Nordea
UNITED STATES
2013 redux: US debt
ceiling might lead to rate hikes – TF
FEDERAL RESERVE
Yellen, consensus-builder, needs to send strong signal at Fed meet
– Reuters
FOMC Preview: Still waiting for the green light – Danske
Bank
Why the Fed won’t raise
rates in October — in five charts – WaPo
OTHER
China delivered another
dual cut today to support the struggling economy, 25bp to the interest rates
and 50bp to the reserve ratio. As a historical move, the deposit rate ceiling
was removed, making interest rates fully liberalised and increasing the CNY’s
chance of being a reserve currency. The easing is likely to keep short-term
growth stable but risks aggravating the existing problem faced by the economy. We
remain cautious for the medium-term outlook
China leaders meet to discuss financial reforms,
economic growth – Reuters
China's ruling Communist
Party opened a key meeting on Monday that will focus on financial reforms and
how to maintain growth of around seven percent and more broadly map out
economic and social targets for the next five years.
FX: impossible trinity – Nordea
Can Draghi get it
all? The USD staged a comeback - how
long it will last? The ball in Fed's hands now, but China - above all.
Max McKegg: Fed in focus, possible EURUSD double
whammy ahead – TF
There is little chance
of action from the FOMC, but it may give some guidance * The FOMC has the
potential to swamp any moves by minnow central banks * Market pricing suggests
only a 30% chance that the Fed will hike rates this year * It would be a double
whammy for EURUSD if the ECB and Fed move in December
A Dozen Ways
Charlie Munger Thinks like Philip Tetlock Suggests in his New Book
Superforecasting
– 25iq
NYSE
new highs are starting to rise, while new lows are retreating * Improving
breadth with majority of the stocks rising above 50 MA * Energy sector could
break out as breadth remains extremely oversold
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Back on Bullish Track
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Momentum Fades in Europe
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Look Technically Healthy
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Chinese rate cut, good Euro-area
numbers, lots of action in the week ahead * ECB and PBoC surprises last week
put more pressure on the Fed this week * Euro-area yields digesting Draghi’s
message * The USD keeps strengthening
Morning Markets – TF
After super-dovish
comments from the European Central Bank last week, markets this week look for
further guidance from the US Federal Reserve, which holds its FOMC on Tuesday-Wednesday
amid increasing signs that the slowdown rippling through emerging markets may
be affecting the world's leading economy. but Asian markets got a lift on
Monday from China's interest rate cut at the end of last week.
Daily Shot – TF
China's Central Bank on Friday
followed the European Central Bank with a fresh round of monetary easing and
cut its benchmark rates. The easing in those two regions helped Germany's Dax
in particular.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Downing Street insists that “leave
means leave” in EU referendum * Commission seeks European Parliament ‘work
around’ to secure UK reforms * Law and Justice triumph in Polish elections * Slovenian
PM: EU “will start falling apart” unless immediate action on refugees is taken
* Schäuble says mood among CDU party members is “dramatically” worse due to
Merkel’s refugee policy * Osborne’s plans to boost infrastructure investment by
tapping local government pension schemes could fall afoul of EU rules * ‘Tampon
tax’ rebellion could force UK Government to renegotiate VAT powers with EU * EU
Commission Vice-President: No matter who wins, Spain will have to amend its
2016 budget * Airbus CEO demands Germany should open labour market to refugees
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Poland’s political earthquake —
Migration mini-summit flop
US Open – ZH
Futures Fizzle, Europe
Red As Markets Ask: "What Do Central Banks Do Now?"
Frontrunning – ZH
Last week was about Mario Draghi’s
dovish tour-de-force at the ECB press conference. This week, the focus shifts
to the US Fed and whether it dares offer any notable shift in forward guidance
ahead of key incoming US data points later this week and next.
The People's Bank of
China spent Friday showing the world it could ease policy with the best of
them, while the bank of Japan is expected to do the same Friday. With the
European Central Bank fully locked in, the only question remains the Fed's
commitment to normalisation. Can the US go it alone?
FINNISH
Riksbank
ei voi levätä * Vilkas viikko edessä sekä keskuspankki- että datarintamalla *
Kiinan keskuspankki leikkasi korkoja tukeakseen huojuvaa taloutta *
Euroalueelta saatiin vahvat PMI-luvut
Suomen finanssiviranomaiset moittivat pankkijätti Nordeaa
aikeista muuttaa Suomen alakonserni sivuliikkeeksi. Moitteet näyttävät
oudoilta, sillä muutto pankkiunionin ulkopuolelle pienentää eikä kasvata pankin
riskejä.
10 käppyrää: Suomen työttömyystilanne lohduton – TE
Vähittäiskaupan syyskuun pikaennakko: -1,7% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden syyskuun tuottajahinnat -3,2% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen tuottajahinnat heinä-syysk. ennallaan YoY
– Tilastokeskus