Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning
week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new
material is published.
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Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
LAST WEEK
"In
Fed We Trust" Is Back: Risk Soars On Hopes Economy Collapses
5 charts from the
week in markets
– WSJ
NEXT WEEK
Housing data eyed after August
disappointed
EU Week Ahead – WSJ
It
is a very unusual week for data, with many of the major housing reports on tap
and not much else. China’s GDP will be a big story over the weekend, and
important earnings news will continue. Despite this, pundits will turn their
attention to housing, asking: Can a housing rebound signal “all clear” for
The
latest risk rally will fade, in our view, as global growth is stalling * Weak
global growth is bearish for USD versus GBP, EUR. Investors with an FX mandate
should focus on RV such as short EUR/GBP and long EUR/SEK, which we have on in
our FX Trading Portfolio * Global growth weakness, expectations of ECB QE and
less selling from EM reserve managers are bullish for core European FI.
Next
week’s main event will be the ECB meeting on Thursday. We expect it to bring
once again a dovish message but no action. The US will have a very quiet week
in terms of data and events. In China Q3 GDP data will be released, while the
flash manufacturing PMI survey has been discontinued. Also, next week’s events
include refugee costs in Sweden and a general election next Sunday 25 October
in Poland.
PMI
data in the US and Europe and figures for industrial production in China in
September * German PMI may attract negative attention, pulled down partly by
the Volkswagen scandal. There is also a risk of a further fall in the PMI
stateside but we still consider the US economy robust * China Q3 GDP will
probably show a continued slowdown but it is worth stressing that the data are
associated with some uncertainty * The ECB meets on Thursday but we expect it
to keep its powder dry. We still expect the ECB to expand its QE programme but
not until the December meeting.
Central
banks are under fire. The Fed seems to be moving away from its long-flagged
idea of raising interest rates this year. Meanwhile, the ECB is edging towards
stepping up a QE programme that many say is not working in any case. Inflation
is below central bank targets in both cases. We think the criticism is harsh. A
Fed delay and more ECB QE both look reasonable given the changing environment,
with increased downside risks, tighter financial conditions and greater
disinflationary pressure. Fed communication could improve though, while the ECB
should be quicker and more decisive in policy easing.
Euro rates update
– Nordea
Next
week is pivot point for the greenback * ECB may hint at more easing at
Thursday's meeting * EURGBP signals point lower, barring ECB surprises * Krona
weakness provides opportunity in NOKSEK